Week 12 Tank Watch Part 2

[Hawkeye0202]

Thursday had some big impacts on the tank, it's Friday and I'm off work for Thanksgiving, I thought I'd do a Tank Watch Update thread. I hope everyone had a good holiday.

The 6 way tie at 3 wins is now a 4 way tie. Dallas leads the tie and is picking 4th.
Houston's victory advances then to 4-7, and they fall to pick 11 in the draft.
The Washington win puts them in first place of the NFC East, so they fell all the way to pick 19.
The Eagles have entered the top 10, now picking 8.

Dallas has a commanding lead in the tiebreaker.
Dallas strength of schedule is .478
Dallas is the only team in the top 15 with a strength of schedule below .497.

The strength of schedule of Dallas' remaining opponents is 2nd lowest in the league, but player losses loom
Martin and Erving will both miss games. Dallas was already in desperation mode, moving Martin out to tackle and relying on the Connors at guard.
The Connors are both top 25 guards per PFF but I don't see how the OL won't totally collapse at this point.
With Steele at tackle and Martin at guard, the OL was collapsing. Now what, we have Steele at tackle and no Martin at all? There may be too many injuries to field a competitive unit in today's NFL.

NFC East remaining strength of schedule:
7. Philly .559
8. Washington .550
14. New York .516
31. Dallas .380
Every NFC East team is probably in the top 10 except for the division winner who will pick 19. Obviously we want as close to the top as possible but somewhere around pick 4ish to 9ish all feels pretty equivalent this year -- we'll get someone good but not a true blue chip. So if we don't win the division, we'll probably be happy with our options. If we were to lose out, we would probably have a chance at Sewell, but I think the Cincinnati game is one we win.

Finally, something to keep an eye on: is McCarthy on Team Tank?
Immediately after the fake punt fiasco, did anyone else consider that Mike McCarthy might be our inside man? Maybe I'm just looking for a way to rationalize that mind boggling decision, but the fake punt felt like the experimental late season play of a coach who has packed it in and is calling plays from a "developmental year" mindset. You see coaches for bad teams begin doing this every year at a certain point in the season, but week 12 is uncommonly early.

Projected tank status at end of week 12: Pick 4
We're safe from moving down for this week, and I don't see Cincinnati winning, so I think Dallas stays put at 4.
Cincinnati losing will cause New York to go to 4-7 with tiebreakers over Washington, sending New York to pick 19.
Washington would end up somewhere in the 5-8 range. I'm projecting Washington to 8 because I'm picking ATL, LAC, and PHI to lose.
This leaves Philly picking 7.

I have no more false hopes as a result of the Minnesota win. The tank is on.

Tanker Das, OUT

Excellent post! Hell, let make it a weekly thing ........LOL.

 

[Hawkeye0202]

Guys don't count the Ravens game as lost so fast.......right now they're average at best. I can certainly see us winning that game.

 

[gimmesix]

Finally, something to keep an eye on: is McCarthy on Team Tank?
Immediately after the fake punt fiasco, did anyone else consider that Mike McCarthy might be our inside man? Maybe I'm just looking for a way to rationalize that mind boggling decision, but the fake punt felt like the experimental late season play of a coach who has packed it in and is calling plays from a "developmental year" mindset. You see coaches for bad teams begin doing this every year at a certain point in the season, but week 12 is uncommonly early.

I think McCarthy just made several desperation moves because of the offensive situation and the defensive struggles. I believe a coach who has packed it in wouldn't have called a fake punt. That's a play to try to get you back in a game, not a developmental or experimental play.

 

[gimmesix]

Guys don't count the Ravens game as lost so fast.......right now they're average at best. I can certainly see us winning that game.

If we win any games with this offensive line, McCarthy should get coach of the year.

 

[DasSchnitzel]

Excellent post! Hell, let make it a weekly thing ........LOL.

It is a weekly thing. Check back around Wednesday every week for the next one. I started 2 or 3 weeks ago.

 

[exciter]

You think we can beat Cincinnati at home without Martin? The game will be a toss up. There is a good chance we could lose out.

Ryan Finley!

 

[baltcowboy]

Ryan Finley!

I think they replaced him with Brandon Allen. We will see tomorrow.

 

[CowboyRoy]

Thursday had some big impacts on the tank, it's Friday and I'm off work for Thanksgiving, I thought I'd do a Tank Watch Update thread. I hope everyone had a good holiday.

The 6 way tie at 3 wins is now a 4 way tie. Dallas leads the tie and is picking 4th.
Houston's victory advances then to 4-7, and they fall to pick 11 in the draft.
The Washington win puts them in first place of the NFC East, so they fell all the way to pick 19.
The Eagles have entered the top 10, now picking 8.

Dallas has a commanding lead in the tiebreaker.
Dallas strength of schedule is .478
Dallas is the only team in the top 15 with a strength of schedule below .497.

The strength of schedule of Dallas' remaining opponents is 2nd lowest in the league, but player losses loom
Martin and Erving will both miss games. Dallas was already in desperation mode, moving Martin out to tackle and relying on the Connors at guard.
The Connors are both top 25 guards per PFF but I don't see how the OL won't totally collapse at this point.
With Steele at tackle and Martin at guard, the OL was collapsing. Now what, we have Steele at tackle and no Martin at all? There may be too many injuries to field a competitive unit in today's NFL.

NFC East remaining strength of schedule:
7. Philly .559
8. Washington .550
14. New York .516
31. Dallas .380
Every NFC East team is probably in the top 10 except for the division winner who will pick 19. Obviously we want as close to the top as possible but somewhere around pick 4ish to 9ish all feels pretty equivalent this year -- we'll get someone good but not a true blue chip. So if we don't win the division, we'll probably be happy with our options. If we were to lose out, we would probably have a chance at Sewell, but I think the Cincinnati game is one we win.

All we really need to do is lose every NFC East game left on the schedule. Washington was a great start.
Finally, something to keep an eye on: is McCarthy on Team Tank?
Immediately after the fake punt fiasco, did anyone else consider that Mike McCarthy might be our inside man? Maybe I'm just looking for a way to rationalize that mind boggling decision, but the fake punt felt like the experimental late season play of a coach who has packed it in and is calling plays from a "developmental year" mindset. You see coaches for bad teams begin doing this every year at a certain point in the season, but week 12 is uncommonly early.

Projected tank status at end of week 12: Pick 4
We're safe from moving down for this week, and I don't see Cincinnati winning, so I think Dallas stays put at 4.
Cincinnati losing will cause New York to go to 4-7 with tiebreakers over Washington, sending New York to pick 19.
Washington would end up somewhere in the 5-8 range. I'm projecting Washington to 8 because I'm picking ATL, LAC, and PHI to lose.
This leaves Philly picking 7.

I have no more false hopes as a result of the Minnesota win. The tank is on.

Tanker Das, OUT

 

[exciter]

I think they replaced him with Brandon Allen. We will see tomorrow.

Awesome! Career 48% completion percentage and 68 QB rating! May be going with the kicker by the time they play Dallas!

 

[baltcowboy]

Awesome! Career 48% completion percentage and 68 QB rating! May be going with the kicker by the time they play Dallas!

We made a one legged check down quarterback look like Troy Aikman on Thanksgiving. I think Mixon might be back for the game as well. He will be the key.

 

[T-RO]

Either way I don't want this to get turned into too much of a draft thread and get moved over to the draft zone but maybe NYJ 2021 1st for DAL (2021 1st, 3rd) + (2022 1st) + (2023 2nd)? I think these kinds of trades are hard to predict and I'm modelling this off of the Eagles move from 8 to 2 for Wentz.

The Jets would swap picks for an additional 3rd, one 1st and a 2nd?! That package doesn't even move the needle.

-Wentz wasn't regarded as crazy elite. Lawrence absolutely is. "Generational QB" - many say.
-Ten or twelve teams would sell half their nut-sack for Lawrence so the bidding war would be INSANE.
-Jets would not want to trade the pick! So an offer would need to be crazy
-Jets could say: To swap number 1's you give us all your 2021 picks and all of them again in 2022. I'm not sure the Jets would even take this massive offer!

 

[exciter]

We made a one legged check down quarterback look like Troy Aikman on Thanksgiving. I think Mixon might be back for the game as well. He will be the key.

Christian Covington is their starting 1 tech, him and that defense is a far cry from what WDC had out there!

 

[Whirlwin]

Humor me in this hypothetical or even Lawrence thread:
If we lose out and get the 3rd or 4th pick: If we really want Trevor Lawrence, what do we have to give the Jets to move up 2-3 spots? Players/picks.

We could give them Elliot, Prescott, Jalen Smith, Galloway,Or even Lawrence. Philly gave the farm away for Conson that hasn’t worked out too well. But this is a different quarterback Trevor

 

[cristglo]

Guys don't count the Ravens game as lost so fast.......right now they're average at best. I can certainly see us winning that game.

If Lamar plays in which he could I dont see the Defense keeping him in ck. With Martin and Cam out I just pray Andy makes it through the game. LOL

 

[CowboysFaninHouston]

You think we can beat Cincinnati at home without Martin? The game will be a toss up. There is a good chance we could lose out.

I think we win one more...2 on the outside....we might still stay at 4 or 5.....Jets and Jax aren't winning any. cinci is staying put at 3....

 

[ghst187]

Well, tank you very much.....

I see what you did there

 

[KB1122]

How did we do today?

 

[NorthTexan95]

How did we do today?

No big help but at least the Giants won.

 

[starfan1]

How did we do today?

Sewell and Parsons still in play

 

[Buzzbait]

If we win any games with this offensive line, McCarthy should get coach of the year.