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AER2007 - Week 4
Wednesday October 03rd 2007, 5:24 pm
AIKMAN COMMENTARY – Week 4
There’s no surprise at the top of the Offensive Aikman Efficiency Ratings through four weeks of the NFL season with the Patriots, Cowboys and Colts sitting 1-2-3. In a slightly different order, these three teams also sit atop the NFL’s rankings which are determined only by total yards.
A huge gap of 11.4 ratings points has already emerged between the top three teams and Arizona which now sits in fourth in a cluster of four teams between 85.7 and 84.6.
The Cardinals’ jump from 22nd in the final 2006 AER Offensive Ratings (at 72.4) can be attributed in large part to the team’s success in the Red Zone in ’07. Arizona has reached the end zone on six of eight trips inside the 20 and has a hearty average of 6.00 points per Red Zone opportunity – second-best in the NFL at the moment.
- - -
Things can change quickly in the NFL – and the Raiders and Rams offer two cases in point.
The Raiders finished dead last in the 2006 NFL with their 54.6 Offensive AER. In fact, it was the worst Season Offensive AER we have recorded in our database that goes back to 1995.
That’s all changed in ’07 under Coach Lane Kiffin and with a re-emphasis on the running game. The Raiders are fifth in the Offensive AERs at the moment (and up to 10th in the NFL). The Browns, 30th in ’06, are also showing a major improvement as they now stand seventh in ’07.
On the other hand, the Rams had a fine offense in 2006. They finished the year fourth in the ’06 Offensive AERs at 84.4 for the season after blistering a 97.9 mark in the season’s final four weeks. But so far in ’07, they are dead last at 55.5.
- - -
Things are much more closely bunched on defense this year with the Eagles moving to the forefront after Week 4 – but seven other teams are within their 85.9 rating.
In that top group of eight, two teams that are significantly outperforming their NFL yards allowed ranking are the Vikings and Seahawks. Minnesota gets high marks for its rush defense, turnovers created and limited number of points allowed. In addition to turnovers and points, the Seahawks are getting extra points for limiting the number of first downs allowed.
- - -
The AER Game Ratings went 13-1 last week (the team with the higher AER Game Rating won all but the Packers-Vikings game) to go to 53-9 or 85.5% on the year.
Teams that have gained more yards have gone 43-19 for a 69.4% correlation to victory.
We cite this periodically as proof of our contention that the AERs provide a better indicator of the factors that actually win football games than just the matter of which team gained the most yards.
Wednesday October 03rd 2007, 5:24 pm
AIKMAN COMMENTARY – Week 4
There’s no surprise at the top of the Offensive Aikman Efficiency Ratings through four weeks of the NFL season with the Patriots, Cowboys and Colts sitting 1-2-3. In a slightly different order, these three teams also sit atop the NFL’s rankings which are determined only by total yards.
A huge gap of 11.4 ratings points has already emerged between the top three teams and Arizona which now sits in fourth in a cluster of four teams between 85.7 and 84.6.
The Cardinals’ jump from 22nd in the final 2006 AER Offensive Ratings (at 72.4) can be attributed in large part to the team’s success in the Red Zone in ’07. Arizona has reached the end zone on six of eight trips inside the 20 and has a hearty average of 6.00 points per Red Zone opportunity – second-best in the NFL at the moment.
- - -
Things can change quickly in the NFL – and the Raiders and Rams offer two cases in point.
The Raiders finished dead last in the 2006 NFL with their 54.6 Offensive AER. In fact, it was the worst Season Offensive AER we have recorded in our database that goes back to 1995.
That’s all changed in ’07 under Coach Lane Kiffin and with a re-emphasis on the running game. The Raiders are fifth in the Offensive AERs at the moment (and up to 10th in the NFL). The Browns, 30th in ’06, are also showing a major improvement as they now stand seventh in ’07.
On the other hand, the Rams had a fine offense in 2006. They finished the year fourth in the ’06 Offensive AERs at 84.4 for the season after blistering a 97.9 mark in the season’s final four weeks. But so far in ’07, they are dead last at 55.5.
- - -
Things are much more closely bunched on defense this year with the Eagles moving to the forefront after Week 4 – but seven other teams are within their 85.9 rating.
In that top group of eight, two teams that are significantly outperforming their NFL yards allowed ranking are the Vikings and Seahawks. Minnesota gets high marks for its rush defense, turnovers created and limited number of points allowed. In addition to turnovers and points, the Seahawks are getting extra points for limiting the number of first downs allowed.
- - -
The AER Game Ratings went 13-1 last week (the team with the higher AER Game Rating won all but the Packers-Vikings game) to go to 53-9 or 85.5% on the year.
Teams that have gained more yards have gone 43-19 for a 69.4% correlation to victory.
We cite this periodically as proof of our contention that the AERs provide a better indicator of the factors that actually win football games than just the matter of which team gained the most yards.
