What are the odds that the big 3 at QB are ....

[DFWJC]

That says perfectly that QB scouting is still in the Dark Ages.

Romo, Brady, and Brees are vastly better than all of them, and they represent an undrafted free agent, a 6th round pick, and a 2nd-rounder.

Vastly better than Aaron Rodgers?

anyway, yes, Romo and Brady are historic anomalies.

 

[Risen Star]

History has generally answered this question: we will see one solid starter to star, maybe a decent clipboard holder or two, and a whole lot of busts. There are a lot of people who seem to think that Lynch, Goff and Wentz will all be 10-15 year franchise quarterbacks; I can only conclude they started following the NFL last week.

Manning, Rivers, Roethlisberger. All in one draft. All in one 1st round. That year's big 3.

You must not have started watching the NFL yet.

 

[Super_Kazuya]

Manning, Rivers, Roethlisberger. All in one draft. All in one 1st round. That year's big 3.

You must not have started watching the NFL yet.

Wow, one instance. You're a regular Einstein. How did next year's trio of Young, Leinart and Cutler work out? Time to crawl back under your rock now.

 

[gimmesix]

What are the odds that ALL of the Big 3 at QB are outplayed by a lesser drafted QB who has a better career than the Big 3? Personally, I think it is 40 percent.

If the question is what are the odds of someone outside the Big 3 having a better career than at least one or more of the Big 3 I think the odds are 80 percent or higher. Now guessing WHO busts and who comes out of nowhere to set the world on fire would be the crap shoot.

I also put the odds of at least one of the Big 3 busting at 80 percent , and at least 60 percent that two or more of the Big 3 bust.

Thoughts?

It would not be surprising for two of the three to bust, considering past draft success ratios.

However, the odds of someone coming out of nowhere to have a better career is not that high, either, although the odds of someone taken at the top of the second round succeeding are just as high or higher.

QB is just a hard position to draft. That's why I think it's important for Dallas to not take one at No. 4 based on any perceived need, but instead to take one there if the Cowboys believe he is absolutely worth the pick. If there are any doubts about that, we shouldn't waste the No. 4 pick on one.

 

[erod]

Vastly better than Aaron Rodgers?

anyway, yes, Romo and Brady are historic anomalies.

Not Rodgers. The rest in you list.

Other historical anomalies include Joe Montana, Dan Marino, Brett Farve, Warren Moon, Matt Hasselbach, Mark Brunell, Joe Theismann, Rich Gannon.....

 

[Verdict]

It would not be surprising for two of the three to bust, considering past draft success ratios.

However, the odds of someone coming out of nowhere to have a better career is not that high, either, although the odds of someone taken at the top of the second round succeeding are just as high or higher.

QB is just a hard position to draft. That's why I think it's important for Dallas to not take one at No. 4 based on any perceived need, but instead to take one there if the Cowboys believe he is absolutely worth the pick. If there are any doubts about that, we shouldn't waste the No. 4 pick on one.

I think that is a fair and accurate statement. Yet some on this board assume that if we take one of the Big 3 that we are set for the next 10 years as if it were a foregone conclusion.

 

[DFWJC]

Not Rodgers. The rest in you list.

Other historical anomalies include Joe Montana, Dan Marino, Brett Farve, Warren Moon, Matt Hasselbach, Mark Brunell, Joe Theismann, Rich Gannon.....

...and D Russell, Leaf, Akili Smith, etc, etc

 

[MrPhil]

Not at all... just because you and a few other dimwits on this board believe in the myth of Aaron Rodgers doesn't mean that's how it's done in the real world. The overwhelming majority of successful QBs in the league are drafted when needed and play immediately. Nobody drafts players they don't have any intention to play right away or very close to it. Only Madden playing idiots think that's a good idea.

Dimwits and idiots huh? Is that how you respond to everyone that disagrees with you? Is this how you treat people in the "real world" too?

Forgive me for the mistaken belief that this subject could be discussed without it devolving into name calling.

For the record I am in support of drafting a QB as soon as any of our picks warrant the selection, yes even at #4 *GASP!* That said, I don't feel the need to demean people by calling them names because they disagree with me, clearly you do.

I hope you gain some perspective soon and not that you will care but welcome to my ignore list.

 

[erod]

...and D Russell, Leaf, Akili Smith, etc, etc

The guys I mentioned were not first rounders. Just Hall of Famers for the most part.

The list of first-round busts is astronomical.

 

[Irvin88_4life]

The point is, if teams knew Rodgers would be this good, he would have been the No. 1 overall pick. Wilson would have been a top 5. Romo would have been, too.

Quarterbacks are usually crapshoots. All of them this year seem to be. There might be a good one or two, or they might all be Brandon Weeden, who was a first-round pick, too.

So why waste a number 4 pick on a guy if not franchise caliber QB and pay the millions of dollars for nothing. None of these QBs can start as rookies they all need developing

 

[erod]

So why waste a number 4 pick on a guy if not franchise caliber QB and pay the millions of dollars for nothing. None of these QBs can start as rookies they all need developing

Yes, but if one develops into the next Aaron Rodgers, you're covered for the next 15 years at the hardest position to fill in the NFL.

If they think one of these guys is that, then go get him.

 

[Irvin88_4life]

Yes, but if one develops into the next Aaron Rodgers, you're covered for the next 15 years at the hardest position to fill in the NFL.

If they think one of these guys is that, then go get him.

Key words. ....if they think one if these guys is that. If they think Dak or Jones can develop into the better QB then why not draft him.

My point is don't say not to draft a guy because he is a project. All these QBs in this draft are projects

 

[Risen Star]

Wow, one instance. You're a regular Einstein. How did next year's trio of Young, Leinart and Cutler work out? Time to crawl back under your rock now.

When did this become it always happens?

Or are you moving the goalposts because you just started watching the NFL yesterday?

It's a great sport. When you get confused, shoot me a DM. I'll walk you through it.

 

[Super_Kazuya]

When did this become it always happens?

Or are you moving the goalposts because you just started watching the NFL yesterday?

It's a great sport. When you get confused, shoot me a DM. I'll walk you through it.

I said no such thing. When you learn how to read and write above a third grade level, shoot me a DM. I'll explain it to your dog and he'll walk you through it.

 

[Risen Star]

I said no such thing. When you learn how to read and write above a third grade level, shoot me a DM. I'll explain it to your dog and he'll walk you through it.

No. You said anyone who thinks all three will make it must have just started watching the NFL.

I've seen it happen before. In the NFL.

So when did you start watching?

 

[Floatyworm]

QB is likely the toughest position in the NFL in which to predict the success or failure of. The number of variables that combine to determine their futures are staggering.

You can thank Tom Brady for that. Everyone is looking for the next one.....that guy that no one saw coming. That's gonna be pretty hard for that guy to slip through the crack now days....W/ the invent of the internet....people communicate far more than they ever have. Finding that hidden gem...is gonna be more about luck...than scouting IMO.

 

[Bullflop]

You can thank Tom Brady for that. Everyone is looking for the next one.....that guy that no one saw coming. That's gonna be pretty hard for that guy to slip through the crack now days....W/ the invent of the internet....people communicate far more than they ever have. Finding that hidden gem...is gonna be more about luck...than scouting IMO.

If that's not enough to make it difficult, the transition from the college ranks to the pros is such a drastic jump that it's extremely difficult to determine exactly how a prospective QB might respond to the more aggressive and closer coverage that he is sure to see in the NFL. I think you've made a valid point. It's largely a guessing game and luck seems to play a prominent role.

 

[Aven8]

Im pretty sure lots of people expected Flacco and Carr to be good. They were taken #18 and and #36 respectively. Wilson definitely came from nowhere, but Peter Carroll seems to be pretty good at that.

Wilson's only concern was his height IMO coming out. He was fantastic at both NC st and Wis and won.