What Do We Need To Get Out Of A Draft Pick To Have It Not Be A Bust?

[Scotman]

I'm thinking about Randy Gregory, but I've wondered this to myself before.

Let's say, for the sake of the question, that Gregory comes in tonight and plays well. During the playoffs he just lights it up and eventually ends up helping us win a Superbowl. But then, he never plays again due to suspensions.

Would a second round pick who only played a coupled of years, but proved pivotal, be a wasted pick?

Other players with short careers but showed promise like LaFluer?

Depending on the round, what do we need to see from guys to have the pick be worthwhile?

 

[Scotman]

Thanks autocorrect. The title should have read, "What do we need to get out of a draft pick to have it not be a bust?"

 

[flosho]

If he had the strip sack that won us a superbowl then was lifetime banned because hes an idiot id consider his draft pick well worth it.

 

[GIFTS86]

Bottom line is what you spent help you?

 

[Bullflop]

I think the key requirement is if a player was worth the draft pick invested in terms of his production. Thus far, Gregory's results aren't nearly what they should have been for a 2nd round pick. Whether or not he makes up for it in the future remains to be seen. Unless he manages to turn that story around to become a productive player, his career will be seen as a failure. If he "turns over a new leaf" and avoids getting on Goodell's bad side any further, he might get a chance to prove himself worthy of his investment. Of course, much better results are still pending. We have yet to see if Goodell's prospective one year suspension is destined to be served or not. Obviously, Gregory's career thus far has been jaded with doubt.

 

[Jake]

It depends on the pick. Obviously, the expectations of a first rounder are higher than for a 6th rounder.

 

[TheCount]

At the very least, all his nerves should be firing.

 

[TrailBlazer]

Depends where the player was drafted. If you were a first rounder you need to be a productive starter by year 2. You know a bust when you see it

 

[Tobal]

Lots of if's here, but if The NFL had no trade deadline would you trade your 2nd round pick for an aging veteran or a guy who was a free agent next yr? My immediate response is no, but if the guy played well and applied consistent pressure playing a part in wins along the way to a Super Bowl win. I'd consider that a good trade. I'd be upset we didn't have that pick though

 

[Reality]

The problem comes from too many "high risk potentially high reward" draft picks. You can pick a troubled player like Gregory or even an injured would-be superstar in Jaylon Smith, but those kinds of picks need to be spread years apart, especially if taken in the first 4 rounds. It's okay to take chances, every team does to some degree, because even a solid pick in round #2 brings no guarantees.

They took a chance on Gregory and it has failed so far and likely will "fail" (pun intended) again unless the league changes its stance on pot. Even beyond the failed drug tests though, Gregory has not been impressive in the time he has played. Hopefully he can remain on the field and will also show improvement in his play now that he has returned.

They took a medical rider on Smith hoping to trade one year of no play for a potential franchise defensive superstar and they desperately need that to pan out next season. That said, there is no ignoring the fact they could have traded their 2016 second round pick, which was a high second round pick, for a first round pick in 2017's draft, which means if Jaylon Smith never regains his playing ability or is not cleared to play in 2017, it will definitely turn out to be a really bad decision and completely wasted pick, especially if we keep having winning seasons for a few years and have much lower picks.

I think at this point we should assume Gregory's only chance to remain on the field will be if the NFL changes its policies on pot, which likely will happen, but not until the next CBA which will probably be too late for Gregory's career, no matter his age.

If Jaylon Smith makes it on the field and turns into a great player for us, it will help cover the Gregory pick, but going forward, I think they need to avoid risky picks for at least the next two years, because as I said, even taking so-called solid picks brings no guarantees of success.

 

[Killerinstinct]

This is an interesting question. A lot of it is determined by where the player is selected.

What if you have a 1st rd pick that makes one play in his entire career but that play just happens to be the winning td in a superbowl.

You would have to call that a successful pick right?

 

[Biggems]

First thing.......he better see the field on most snaps....not on the sidelines due to injury, suspension, or suckage.

2nd, be a playmaker. You don"t need to light up the stat sheet, just make plays and do your job.

3rd, make those around you better.

A lot of people say Ellis was a bust, but I don't see how. He played a long career and was very solid for us. He wad one of the best run defenders for his position. Unfortunately, he wasn't as good of a pass rusher, though he did get a lot of pressure. He just didn't accumulate a lot of sacks. Plus, he will always be linked to us passing on Randy Moss.

 

[Macnalty]

This is a perfect topic for March 2017.

 

[jazzcat22]

Non risky, and no high risk / high reward types. No inured players to red shirt. Not even in the 6th or 7th rounds. No PS type future players.

Draft players that can contribute now, even if not flashy, but a core player. Either that can start or will soon start. Or at least push a starter for playing time.

No matter what happens this year, we win the SB or lose it, or we don't even get there, people, and I sure hope Jerry doesn't do it. They can fall into the belief that since we got as far as we did, that we don't need starters, we need back up / ST's type for depth, just as Jerry did back after the 3 SB's. then we went down hill from there. They kept trading down to thinknig they did not need a first rounder, and to save cap money.

Cleveland screwed up by trading an trading, accumulating picks and players, thinking they needed 15 players, instead of just 5 really good players, difference makers. That is my opinion anyway.

So stick to the draft strategy that has worked over the past 3 or 4 years. BPA 90% of the time.

 

[FaSho]

I think of someone like Greg Ellis. Solid player for years. Not a bust, not a star.

 

[FaSho]

At the very least, all his nerves should be firing.

Hilarious, but not cool man!

 

[WarDaddy]

Was Bruce Carter a bust?

 

[perrykemp]

Was Bruce Carter a bust?

Yes, only started 32 out of a possible 64 games in his time at Dallas.

Flashed at times but was ultimately a 'Looks like Tarzan, Plays like Jane' player type.

 

[KingintheNorth]

With this O Line, Zeke, and Dak (especially three more years of affordable Dak) this team needs to bench "Gambler Jerry" and simply add the player who best helps this team now. Throw in the fact that we are drafting towards the bottom of each round. No injury or character concerns, at least not before the 6th round.

Trading/releasing Romo only frees up a little cap room in 2017, but it frees up a ton in 2018. The Cowboys (and many teams) typically give smaller first-year bases so that means they can be aggressive in free agency this year. This teams needs about 4 or 5 new starters on defense and if they can get 2 in free agency, that would go a long way in to becoming a complete team.

This means the team can have an (almost) BPA approach to the draft and again, drafting towards the bottom of each round, means we are at the mercy of so many other teams and decisions, before we get to make our choice.

A WR (Williams & Butler are pending free agents), a TE (Escobar is a free agent and Witten only has a year or two left), a DE, a LB, a S, and CB are all justified picks in the 1st round. You could even make an argument for a T (Doug Free going into last year of deal) if that specific player is the clear BPA.

Short answer: Don't be cute or look for a "wow" pick; just add the guy who your scouting department and coaches feels best helps your team these next few years.

 

[tyke1doe]

1st round pick? Top 10 - Multiple Pro Bowls, Hall of Fame potential; 11-32 - Starter, border-line Pro Bowl
2nd round pick? Starter, border-line Pro Bowl
3rd round pick? Starter
4th round pick? Major contributor
5th round pick and beyond? Gravy