What happens when we run

[gmoney112]

Martin was the game changer. Probably why the running back got so much better and used more.

Having a guy come in and immediately become an All-Pro contributor certainly helped. He was the first rookie OL all-Pro in like 50 years.

Tyron Smith and Frederick coming into their own at an All-Pro level certainly didn't hurt either. Leary was also much, much better than any interior player we had recently.

That kind of talent on the OL let's you do a lot.

I also think Linehan had a better "feel" for the flow of the game. I like JG as a coach, but I think there's simply too much to do during the week to also be playcalling on Sundays, which is why hardly any HC call their own plays.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Game situations dictate whether or not any particular play should be run or pass. The way the run pass dichotomy has been discussed around here seems obtuse to how the game is actually played and called.

It's like listening to a legion of Mike Tirico's and Joe Bucks who just want to talk about the run/pass split and clock management.

 

[BigStar]

Still comes down to Romo being healthy throughout the majority of the season. All the other stuff is reliant on that one player. Outside of that, we have a great shot if Romo is healthy the majority of the year with the running game and Dez returning @ 100%. Still need the QB to convert those 3rd downs or assist in shootouts that may turn up, etc. as was seen in playoffs. Ideally, Moore never touches the field, but with a year in the system he could prove worthy of winning us those vital games (if necessary). Did I mention I like Romo?

 

[NextGenBoys]

Scott Linehan didn't get here until Murray's last season here.

Linehan is the one who changed the offense to heavy run game. I know the posters here like to bash Garrett for his predictable offense but the offensive philosophy is all Linehan(imo)

The difference is the quality of line we have. We were playing no name, no power linemen before the last few years.

You didn't see this heavy run game when Garrett and Callahan were calling plays. Hell they abandon the run if it got stuffed 2 times. That's it!! Enough of that. Romo, pass it 46 times! Imagine Garrett calling plays out in Seattle the 2nd half of that game. They stuffed us for much of that half. Then we finally broke through with some big runs, late. Garrett would've totally given up on it, and we probably would've blown the game(which we almost did anyway). Then after a week of bashing from the media and fans, they would overcompensate the game by running the ball 15 straight times, but that type of strategy only throws your hold team out of rhythm.

Scott Linehan is the difference.

 

[Manwiththeplan]

I'm not certain how much better Murray was in 2014 compared to previous years. I think he was simply used more.

yea, there's this myth going around that Murray's only good year was 2014, but his 2013 was pretty good as well

 

[JPostSam]

You must have missed my caveat about injuries.

Anyways more interesting stats.

22-2 when he got 20 or more carries. Might be a self fulfilling prophecy, but I think it goes a lot to identity and style.

8-21 when he got 19 or less carries...

this is often true for other teams, as well. it is usually correlation, not causation. when teams are effective at running the ball and can run to finish the game, they are winning. when they are ineffective and have to abandon the run the catch up with passes, they are losing.

 

[big dog cowboy]

Will we go undefeated with this defense? Probably not.

Well that stinks.

 

[percyhoward]

Martin was the game changer. Probably why the running back got so much better and used more.

Frederick also. Those two draft bullseye's tipped the scales completely the other way.

Cowboys' NFL rank
Avg Rush, 1st Down
2012 - 30th
2013 (games 1-8) 16th
2013 (games 9-16) 3rd
2014 - 1st

 

[percyhoward]

My point is let's look at what happened when we fed Murray the ball during his time here...The bigger question could have been why didn't we run the ball more while we had Murray.

You're confusing cause and effect. Running more doesn't lead to winning -- winning leads to running more.

2011-13
Murray's 1st-half rushes/game
in wins 8
in losses 8

Murray's 2nd-half rushes/game
in wins 9
in losses 4

 

[Galian Beast]

You're confusing cause and effect. Running more doesn't lead to winning -- winning leads to running more.

2011-13
Murray's 1st-half rushes/game
in wins 8
in losses 8

Murray's 2nd-half rushes/game
in wins 9
in losses 4

You actually haven't said anything here...

 

[big dog cowboy]

Frederick also. Those two draft bullseye's tipped the scales completely the other way.

Cowboys' NFL rank
Avg Rush, 1st Down
2012 - 30th
2013 (games 1-8) 16th
2013 (games 9-16) 3rd
2014 - 1st

Great stats as always.

 

[AsthmaField]

Think it was Pete Carroll but a valid point anyhow

It was definitely Pete Carroll. He said that before the 2014 game against Dallas in Seattle.

After the OL ended up bullying his bullies, it was clear that the OL was already very good.

 

[percyhoward]

You actually haven't said anything here...

We ran more in the wins because teams run more when they're ahead in the 2nd half of games.

this is often true for other teams, as well. it is usually correlation, not causation. when teams are effective at running the ball and can run to finish the game, they are winning.

Correct, it's true league-wide. If you just look at the part in bold, you could come away with the impression that running more leads to winning. When you break down rushing attempts by half, you can see that it's really the other way around. When you're winning, you run more.

Total Rushing Attempts, 2011-13
winning team 31.2
losing team 23.1

Attempts in 1st half
winning team 13.7
losing team 12.8

Attempts in 2nd half
winning team 17.5
losing team 10.3

 

[Daillest88]

I'll tell you what else is going to make a big difference this season. La'el Collins.

He was becoming a monster last year (remember him pancaking two Seahawks in the same play). He's going to be better and nastier this year, like Eric Williams nasty, plus the rest of the line is entering it's prime with some years in the weight room. It's so hard not to get excited about how lethal the offense can be this season.

Really, outside of injuries teams are going to have to outscore us because you aren't stopping us.

When we run teams are going to crap there pants. La El Collins is going to be a monster!

 

[CowboyRoy]

If you look over the course of Murray's career with the Cowboys you can see why Zeke was the obvious pick for us in this draft. I think most people would agree that Zeke is at least a better prospect than Murray was coming out of college. I think others would go further and say that Zeke from day one is better than Murray was at his prime with us. I'm in the later camp, but let's wait and see there.

My point is let's look at what happened when we fed Murray the ball during his time here.

Murray had 19 regular season games with over 100 yards. Of those 19 games, we went 15-4. A couple of those games featured an injured Tony Romo.

The bigger question could have been why didn't we run the ball more while we had Murray, but I don't think that will be a problem going forward.

Will we go undefeated with this defense? Probably not, but should we make the playoffs with some breathing room? I think so. I think with this offense healthy, we're a top 5 offense and the defense is probably a top 15 defense. That's good enough to make a run this year, and I think next year we'll have a top 10 defense. I'm pretty excited about the next two years and it largely starts with Elliott and Smith.

There are many on here that will tell you that passing wins in the NFL and its a passing league. They will tell you that running the ball doesnt help the QB or affect the D or make your passing game better. 2014 should have been a wake up call to anyone that forgot about 90's cowboys football. The Cowboys have already opened up some eyes by restacking the Oline as the best unit in the NFL. By adding Zeke they have now completed what they already started. The makings of what will become the best running game in the NFL. You win on offense by creating something that no one can stop. Now I am sure there will be some games where the run game isnt working completey, but those will be far and few between and the best defenses will have to stack 10 men in the box to do it. That is where Romo will light them up or Zeke will bounce one for a long TD runs.

 

[CowboyRoy]

We can do it because we have 3 (perhaps 4) probowlers on the OL.
So we can get yards even with no Romo.
With Romo, it is pick your poison.
With Romo and Zeke, that extra yard or so per average carry may translate into a few more 1st downs per games and perhaps extra score per game.

However, we cannot ride Zeke that much.
So I think Morris and DMAC have value.
DMAC can be 3rd down back sometimes and a proven backup (catch, run and block)
Morris provides the pounder when defense knows run is coming (he is not a pass threat) including some plays when running out the clock.

If Green does not progress, would not be adverse to spending a 2nd or 3rd on a RT next draft if BPA is RT.

The only time I see Zeke not playing is to rest or when we are up 15 or 20 late in the game.

 

[JPostSam]

We ran more in the wins because teams run more when they're ahead in the 2nd half of games.


Correct, it's true league-wide. If you just look at the part in bold, you could come away with the impression that running more leads to winning. When you break down rushing attempts by half, you can see that it's really the other way around. When you're winning, you run more.

Total Rushing Attempts, 2011-13
winning team 31.2
losing team 23.1

Attempts in 1st half
winning team 13.7
losing team 12.8

Attempts in 2nd half
winning team 17.5
losing team 10.3

thanks, percy, for putting some data in there to back that.

i assume that defense plays into that, too. meaning, if your offense is working AND your defense is getting turnovers or not giving up first downs, that's when you build up a lead that you can sit on by running out the clock. i don't have the time or the inclunation to flesh that out with data, although i'm sure it's there.

do you have any numbers that match that?

 

[waldoputty]

We ran more in the wins because teams run more when they're ahead in the 2nd half of games.


Correct, it's true league-wide. If you just look at the part in bold, you could come away with the impression that running more leads to winning. When you break down rushing attempts by half, you can see that it's really the other way around. When you're winning, you run more.

Total Rushing Attempts, 2011-13
winning team 31.2
losing team 23.1

Attempts in 1st half
winning team 13.7
losing team 12.8

Attempts in 2nd half
winning team 17.5
losing team 10.3

I do not quite agree with the conclusion drawn from this.
Most teams will not keep running if the run is not working.

By merging the stats across the NFL, you are merging the effects of the run from good running teams and bad running teams.
In particular, this approach minimizes the effect of teams with a strong OL.

There is no easy way I can think of.

Perhaps if someone looked at average yards per run instead?
But even that would be tainted by teams that pass to set up the run like the Patriots with a superior QB.

 

[percyhoward]

i assume that defense plays into that, too. meaning, if your offense is working AND your defense is getting turnovers or not giving up first downs, that's when you build up a lead that you can sit on by running out the clock.

Sure, it doesn't matter if you're leading because you've scored a lot of points, or because your defense is shutting out the opponent. It only matters that you're leading. You often hear coaches say they can win if you give them a good defense and a solid running game.

 

[jnday]

If you look over the course of Murray's career with the Cowboys you can see why Zeke was the obvious pick for us in this draft. I think most people would agree that Zeke is at least a better prospect than Murray was coming out of college. I think others would go further and say that Zeke from day one is better than Murray was at his prime with us. I'm in the later camp, but let's wait and see there.

My point is let's look at what happened when we fed Murray the ball during his time here.

Murray had 19 regular season games with over 100 yards. Of those 19 games, we went 15-4. A couple of those games featured an injured Tony Romo.

The bigger question could have been why didn't we run the ball more while we had Murray, but I don't think that will be a problem going forward.

Will we go undefeated with this defense? Probably not, but should we make the playoffs with some breathing room? I think so. I think with this offense healthy, we're a top 5 offense and the defense is probably a top 15 defense. That's good enough to make a run this year, and I think next year we'll have a top 10 defense. I'm pretty excited about the next two years and it largely starts with Elliott and Smith.

It seems like the reoccurring theme this last week is that the run game has little impact on winning. I disagree of course, by the stat guys says different. Dallas has always been a better team when they had a great RB and oline. I am a firm believe in a smash mouth run game that enables the offense to force it's will on opposing defenses. I honestly think that Murray only give us a hint at what this team can do with Zeke. Murray left a lot of yards on the field and Zeke will not do that from what I have seen. It is time to go back to running the ball down the defense throats and watch their will to win wither away. The defense is going to look better due to them being fresh. They will know that the offense is going to pass to try and keep up and it should lead to more turnovers.