What the history of SB HCs can teach us about JG

Bobhaze

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Let me say right up front- because I love the Cowboys, I want Jason Garrett to succeed. If he succeeds, the Cowboys are winning. That’s what I want. But it’s not likely to happen according to NFL history.

NFL History teaches us that if an NFL coach is going to win a SB, he most likely will do it within the first 5 years of their tenure as head coach of that franchise.

Of the 31 head coaches to win at least one Super Bowl, 27 of them won their first championship within the first five seasons with that team. Only Chuck Noll (six years in Pittsburgh), John Madden (eight years in Oakland), Tom Landry (12 years in Dallas) and Bill Cowher (14 years in Pittsburgh) needed more than five years to capture that elusive first ring.

We know Jason Garrett is not in the league of those greats. We know with the early era HOF coaches like Tom Landry, they had a longer leash than most coaches have today.

Look at the SB winning coaches of the last 10 years and notice they ALL won a SB within 5 years of coaching that franchise:
2009- Mike Tomlin- won a SB in 2nd year as HC in Pitt
2010- Sean Payton won SB in his 4th year as HC in NO
2011- Mike McCarthy- won SB in his 5th year as HC in GB
2012- Tom Coughlin won SB in 2008 in his 4th year in NY and this one in his 7th year
2013- John Harbaugh won this SB in his 5th year as HC in Balt
2014- Pete Carrol- won SB in his 4th year in Sea
2015- Bill Belechick- won his first SB in NE in 2002 in his 2nd year in NE and won 4 more since
2016- Gary Kubiak won SB in his 1st year as HC in Den
2017- Bill Belechick (see above)
2018- Doug Peterson- won SB in his 2nd year in Filly.

So...history says (unless you’re Tom Landry or Chuck Noll) if you’re going to win a SB as a head coach in the NFL, you better do it within 5 years of your tenure with that franchise.

Let’s see, Garrett’s in year 8, and Jerry’s talking about extending him....Hello Jerry?
 

ArtClink

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Let me say right up front- because I love the Cowboys, I want Jason Garrett to succeed. If he succeeds, the Cowboys are winning. That’s what I want. But it’s not likely to happen according to NFL history.

NFL History teaches us that if an NFL coach is going to win a SB, he most likely will do it within the first 5 years of their tenure as head coach of that franchise.

Of the 31 head coaches to win at least one Super Bowl, 27 of them won their first championship within the first five seasons with that team. Only Chuck Noll (six years in Pittsburgh), John Madden (eight years in Oakland), Tom Landry (12 years in Dallas) and Bill Cowher (14 years in Pittsburgh) needed more than five years to capture that elusive first ring.

We know Jason Garrett is not in the league of those greats. We know with the early era HOF coaches like Tom Landry, they had a longer leash than most coaches have today.

Look at the SB winning coaches of the last 10 years and notice they ALL won a SB within 5 years of coaching that franchise:
2009- Mike Tomlin- won a SB in 2nd year as HC in Pitt
2010- Sean Payton won SB in his 4th year as HC in NO
2011- Mike McCarthy- won SB in his 5th year as HC in GB
2012- Tom Coughlin won SB in 2008 in his 4th year in NY and this one in his 7th year
2013- John Harbaugh won this SB in his 5th year as HC in Balt
2014- Pete Carrol- won SB in his 4th year in Sea
2015- Bill Belechick- won his first SB in NE in 2002 in his 2nd year in NE and won 4 more since
2016- Gary Kubiak won SB in his 1st year as HC in Den
2017- Bill Belechick (see above)
2018- Doug Peterson- won SB in his 2nd year in Filly.

So...history says (unless you’re Tom Landry or Chuck Noll) if you’re going to win a SB as a head coach in the NFL, you better do it within 5 years of your tenure with that franchise.

Let’s see, Garrett’s in year 8, and Jerry’s talking about extending him....Hello Jerry?

History, logic, and observations tellus that Garrett is a bufoon of the highest order. He handed Jerry his man card when he agreed to be the puppet hc. Win one, lose one. Win one, lose one. Lather, rinse, repeat.
 

Bobhaze

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History, logic, and observations tellus that Garrett is a bufoon of the highest order. He handed Jerry his man card when he agreed to be the puppet hc. Win one, lose one. Win one, lose one. Lather, rinse, repeat.
I never knew that 5 years is the modern window for NFL head coaches to win a SB. History seems pretty clear.
 

buybuydandavis

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NFL History teaches us that if an NFL coach is going to win a SB, he most likely will do it within the first 5 years of their tenure as head coach of that franchise.
...
Let’s see, Garrett’s in year 8, and Jerry’s talking about extending him....Hello Jerry?

Most of the other guys had longer histories of coaching before becoming a HC. They didn't start as trainees. Garrett started as a QB coach in 2005, and was a HC by 2010.

5 years.
 

Blackrain

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Let me say right up front- because I love the Cowboys, I want Jason Garrett to succeed. If he succeeds, the Cowboys are winning. That’s what I want. But it’s not likely to happen according to NFL history.

NFL History teaches us that if an NFL coach is going to win a SB, he most likely will do it within the first 5 years of their tenure as head coach of that franchise.

Of the 31 head coaches to win at least one Super Bowl, 27 of them won their first championship within the first five seasons with that team. Only Chuck Noll (six years in Pittsburgh), John Madden (eight years in Oakland), Tom Landry (12 years in Dallas) and Bill Cowher (14 years in Pittsburgh) needed more than five years to capture that elusive first ring.

We know Jason Garrett is not in the league of those greats. We know with the early era HOF coaches like Tom Landry, they had a longer leash than most coaches have today.

Look at the SB winning coaches of the last 10 years and notice they ALL won a SB within 5 years of coaching that franchise:
2009- Mike Tomlin- won a SB in 2nd year as HC in Pitt
2010- Sean Payton won SB in his 4th year as HC in NO
2011- Mike McCarthy- won SB in his 5th year as HC in GB
2012- Tom Coughlin won SB in 2008 in his 4th year in NY and this one in his 7th year
2013- John Harbaugh won this SB in his 5th year as HC in Balt
2014- Pete Carrol- won SB in his 4th year in Sea
2015- Bill Belechick- won his first SB in NE in 2002 in his 2nd year in NE and won 4 more since
2016- Gary Kubiak won SB in his 1st year as HC in Den
2017- Bill Belechick (see above)
2018- Doug Peterson- won SB in his 2nd year in Filly.

So...history says (unless you’re Tom Landry or Chuck Noll) if you’re going to win a SB as a head coach in the NFL, you better do it within 5 years of your tenure with that franchise.

Let’s see, Garrett’s in year 8, and Jerry’s talking about extending him....Hello Jerry?


Jerry has sat in his box and watched Garrett make mistake after mistake . I really have to believe at this point Jerry dosent expect Garrett to ever get to a SB . Garrett makes Jerry feel comfortable on a day to day basis . Garrett dosent intimidate Jerry or threaten his power . Garrett is easy for Jerry to work with and dose what he is told .

This is obviously very important to Jerry because he could easily research and get the best coach money could buy but that coach would have a dominant personality that Jerry would have to contend and compete with for top attention . As long as Garrett has not totally lost control of the team I think the job is his and if a change is made Garrett will get promoted and a new coach will come in .

Looks to me like Garrett is family and is here to stay . I know that paints a grim picture but I feel he would have been gone by now if it was not true
 

Diehardblues

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Let me say right up front- because I love the Cowboys, I want Jason Garrett to succeed. If he succeeds, the Cowboys are winning. That’s what I want. But it’s not likely to happen according to NFL history.

NFL History teaches us that if an NFL coach is going to win a SB, he most likely will do it within the first 5 years of their tenure as head coach of that franchise.

Of the 31 head coaches to win at least one Super Bowl, 27 of them won their first championship within the first five seasons with that team. Only Chuck Noll (six years in Pittsburgh), John Madden (eight years in Oakland), Tom Landry (12 years in Dallas) and Bill Cowher (14 years in Pittsburgh) needed more than five years to capture that elusive first ring.

We know Jason Garrett is not in the league of those greats. We know with the early era HOF coaches like Tom Landry, they had a longer leash than most coaches have today.

Look at the SB winning coaches of the last 10 years and notice they ALL won a SB within 5 years of coaching that franchise:
2009- Mike Tomlin- won a SB in 2nd year as HC in Pitt
2010- Sean Payton won SB in his 4th year as HC in NO
2011- Mike McCarthy- won SB in his 5th year as HC in GB
2012- Tom Coughlin won SB in 2008 in his 4th year in NY and this one in his 7th year
2013- John Harbaugh won this SB in his 5th year as HC in Balt
2014- Pete Carrol- won SB in his 4th year in Sea
2015- Bill Belechick- won his first SB in NE in 2002 in his 2nd year in NE and won 4 more since
2016- Gary Kubiak won SB in his 1st year as HC in Den
2017- Bill Belechick (see above)
2018- Doug Peterson- won SB in his 2nd year in Filly.

So...history says (unless you’re Tom Landry or Chuck Noll) if you’re going to win a SB as a head coach in the NFL, you better do it within 5 years of your tenure with that franchise.

Let’s see, Garrett’s in year 8, and Jerry’s talking about extending him....Hello Jerry?
Great info!!

And this would be relative with probably anyone but Jerry. Lol

If winning Super Bowls was the top priority Garrett wouldn’t be here.

Amazing some fans still struggling coming to grips in our dysfunctional situation with Jerry’s agenda.
 

Bobhaze

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Jerry has sat in his box and watched Garrett make mistake after mistake . I really have to believe at this point Jerry dosent expect Garrett to ever get to a SB . Garrett makes Jerry feel comfortable on a day to day basis . Garrett dosent intimidate Jerry or threaten his power . Garrett is easy for Jerry to work with and dose what he is told .

This is obviously very important to Jerry because he could easily research and get the best coach money could buy but that coach would have a dominant personality that Jerry would have to contend and compete with for top attention . As long as Garrett has not totally lost control of the team I think the job is his and if a change is made Garrett will get promoted and a new coach will come in .

Looks to me like Garrett is family and is here to stay . I know that paints a grim picture but I feel he would have been gone by now if it was not true
Jerry has no respect or awareness of NFL history. Anyone saying JJ really wants to win has to look at this present era as clear evidence that winning is not at the top of the priority list of the Jones cartel.
 

Diehardblues

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Jerry tried winning Super Bowls with a respectable proven up an coming HC and did so in this 5 year span which Bob so accurately laid out.

But that wasn’t enough for Jerry’s ego not recieving the credit he’s always wanted to pursue for running and building a football team.

So many fans still not getting why Jerry is here and still continues his pursuit now at age 76.
 

Bobhaze

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Jerry tried winning Super Bowls with a respectable proven up an coming HC and did so in this 5 year span which Bob so accurately laid out.

But that wasn’t enough for Jerry’s ego not recieving the credit he’s always wanted to pursue for running and building a football team.

So many fans still not getting why Jerry is here.
It’s interesting Greggo...the closest Garrett’s ever been to a SB was in his 4th year- the 2014 season. Which was Romo’s last hurrah. Jerry should have fired Garrett after the 2015 season.
 

Diehardblues

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Jerry has no respect or awareness of NFL history. Anyone saying JJ really wants to win has to look at this present era as clear evidence that winning is not at the top of the priority list of the Jones cartel.
Of course he wants to win. But only his way if he gets the credit he didn’t with Jimmy.

He tried winning championships with a bigger ego and football guy but that wasn’t enough.
 

Verdict

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I don't think the statistics support what you are trying to say. It's a pretty weak correlation at best and too many other factors factor into the situation to draw the conclusion that you want to draw.

Moreover there are more teams now than ever, and several coaches have won more than one super bowl. Additionally, many of the coaches who have won a super bowl won it with another coaches players.

Most people would not argue that Barry Switzer was an all time great coach but he won a super bowl. Is he better than someone else because he won it with Jimmys team? (And I'm a bigger Switzer fan than most).
 

Diehardblues

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It’s interesting Greggo...the closest Garrett’s ever been to a SB was in his 4th year- the 2014 season. Which was Romo’s last hurrah. Jerry should have fired Garrett after the 2015 season.
Why?

Garrett is perfect for Jerry’s ego and pursuit of proving he’s a football guy.

Garrett wins just enough to prevent a collapse and recieves more criticism while not looking for the spotlight with a bigger ego who the media and fans would give more credit too.

Why would Jerry let go of that?
 

Reality

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Let me say right up front- because I love the Cowboys, I want Jason Garrett to succeed. If he succeeds, the Cowboys are winning. That’s what I want. But it’s not likely to happen according to NFL history.

NFL History teaches us that if an NFL coach is going to win a SB, he most likely will do it within the first 5 years of their tenure as head coach of that franchise.

Of the 31 head coaches to win at least one Super Bowl, 27 of them won their first championship within the first five seasons with that team. Only Chuck Noll (six years in Pittsburgh), John Madden (eight years in Oakland), Tom Landry (12 years in Dallas) and Bill Cowher (14 years in Pittsburgh) needed more than five years to capture that elusive first ring.

We know Jason Garrett is not in the league of those greats. We know with the early era HOF coaches like Tom Landry, they had a longer leash than most coaches have today.

Look at the SB winning coaches of the last 10 years and notice they ALL won a SB within 5 years of coaching that franchise:
2009- Mike Tomlin- won a SB in 2nd year as HC in Pitt
2010- Sean Payton won SB in his 4th year as HC in NO
2011- Mike McCarthy- won SB in his 5th year as HC in GB
2012- Tom Coughlin won SB in 2008 in his 4th year in NY and this one in his 7th year
2013- John Harbaugh won this SB in his 5th year as HC in Balt
2014- Pete Carrol- won SB in his 4th year in Sea
2015- Bill Belechick- won his first SB in NE in 2002 in his 2nd year in NE and won 4 more since
2016- Gary Kubiak won SB in his 1st year as HC in Den
2017- Bill Belechick (see above)
2018- Doug Peterson- won SB in his 2nd year in Filly.

So...history says (unless you’re Tom Landry or Chuck Noll) if you’re going to win a SB as a head coach in the NFL, you better do it within 5 years of your tenure with that franchise.

Let’s see, Garrett’s in year 8, and Jerry’s talking about extending him....Hello Jerry?
To be fair though, most coaches that do not win Super Bowls are usually replaced within 3-4 years over the last 20 years including some sooner than that.

I am not a Garrett fan as most people have known for a while, but there are a lot of coaches that never make it past year 5 with a team so it makes sense that most coaches who have won Super Bowls in the last 10 years would have done so within their first 5 years as coach.
 

Bobhaze

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I don't think the statistics support what you are trying to say. It's a pretty weak correlation at best and too many other factors factor into the situation to draw the conclusion that you want to draw.

Moreover there are more teams now than ever, and several coaches have won more than one super bowl. Additionally, many of the coaches who have won a super bowl won it with another coaches players.

Most people would not argue that Barry Switzer was an all time great coach but he won a super bowl. Is he better than someone else because he won it with Jimmys team? (And I'm a bigger Switzer fan than most).
Actually, I think you missed the point of the stats. It shows that coaches who win SBs do it in the first five years of their tenure with that team. Of all the SB head coaches to win a SB, only some of the all time greats like Noll, Landry, and Madden ever won their first SB after the 5th year with that team.
 

Bobhaze

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To be fair though, most coaches that do not win Super Bowls are usually replaced within 3-4 years over the last 20 years including some sooner than that.

I am not a Garrett fan as most people have known for a while, but there are a lot of coaches that never make it past year 5 with a team so it makes sense that most coaches who have won Super Bowls in the last 10 years would have done so within their first 5 years as coach.
Good point, but doesn’t that show that keeping a HC beyond five years without even getting close to a SB is not very smart?
 

Reality

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Good point, but doesn’t that show that keeping a HC beyond five years without even getting close to a SB is not very smart?
Oh I agree with that :D

I am on record saying I wish Garrett had been fired years ago. Even if the Cowboys win a Super Bowl under Garrett (which I do not think will happen unless every team in front of us suffers serious injuries), I would have no faith in him at all to win a second one.
 
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