I think we need to look at our needs and try to define where Jerry might go from those.
IMO, the needs are WR, CB, ILB, OL, and DL
WR
Seems to be one of the most obvious in that Owens and Glenn are getting up in age, Glenn may or may not be able to play anymore and Owens is also in the last year of his contract. After those two, we have Crayton would is more suited to either the 2nd WR or the slot guy. IMO, he is much better as a slot guy. Hurd and Austin are just parts at this point. They could make quality starters but not sure either one would be more than a #2 guy. Stanback is really an unknown. He may be the second coming of Owens but no one will know anything until training camp.
I look for Jerry to address WR in a trade if possible. Seriously doubt it would be Chad Johnson just because of the pain it would cost the Bengals in salary cap. Roy Williams is a possiblity but I did hear one analyst for the NFL on Fox Sports radio saying that it would be foolish to offer more than a 3rd round choice for either one. He says fans imagine guys worth a 1st round but reality is that they aren't. There are reasons that guys like that are traded and that the new team has to live with those reasons. I tend to agree with him.
Will we take a WR in the draft, I think so but I am not convinced it will be on day one.
RB
I think we see the offense with Barber as the main guy and I think he sign for a contract probably in the $35 mil range over 5 years. But we need a compliment back to him. Someone who can catch the ball out of the backfield and is a homerun hitter (speed to burn).
That to me says it will not be McFadden. Might mean not even one in the 1st round but the guys I would think we would target would be Felix Jones, Jamaal Charles, Chris Johnson or Steve Slaton. I would bet that Jones will be the top target then Johnson and then Charles. From the ranking currently, Jones is the only one that appears will go in the 1st but never forget come draft day most RBs fall, so it is very possible that all of them would be available in the second.
Now the only thing that changes this is if Barber doesn't get signed before Feb 22nd and we tender him with the !st and 3rd round tender. Then if he is still not signed by Feb 29th, all teams can negioate with him. Would anyone be foolish enough to try and sign him for that amount, maybe. I could see Tampa Bay especially if Cadillac Williams is really going to be done as some reports indicate or maybe even Miami (highly unlikely) or Houston or Arizona or even Seattle.
DL
If Spears is really on the block then I would suspect that we will look at a DE in the draft or a DT so that Ratliff could be our DE. I could see us looking at Red Bryant in the late second or third.
OL
Depending on what we do with Flozell will dictate taking a OT second day (rounds 3-7) or earlier. But we will take one sometime during the draft.
CB
IMO, our most pressing needs. I just do not see us passing on the best corner available when we draft in the 1st. It will not surprise me if we took two in the first 3 rounds.