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Why don't the No. 1 overall picks play like it?
by Alex Marvez
Alex Marvez is a Senior NFL Writer for FOXSports.com. He's covered the NFL for 13 seasons as a beat writer and is the president of the Pro Football Writers of America.
First sometimes worst
So far, 2007 No. 1 overall pick JaMarcus Russell isn't looking particularly Aikman-esque. And he's in good company. Take a gander at the top selections since Troy Aikman shook the commish's hand back in 1989.
But compared to other players chosen with the draft's first overall pick, Troy Aikman considers himself lucky.
Aikman survived that 1989 season with the Dallas Cowboys en route to forging a Hall of Fame career and winning three championships.
Most of the other players subsequently selected at No. 1 haven't enjoyed such good fortune.
None besides Aikman currently have their busts on display in Canton. While some active players can still reach such heights, Indianapolis quarterback Peyton Manning (1998) is considered the lone lock among the past 19 top picks for future induction.
Manning is one of just five players drafted No. 1 since 1986 to reach a Super Bowl. Even more telling is the lack of Pro Bowl appearances. Only 11 of the past 20 top choices have earned that honor.
Considering a team can pick from an entire draft class, such production is disappointing. But one of the NFL's most respected agents says it shouldn't be surprising.
"It takes health, patience and the team that drafted you to become better," said Marvin Demoff, who has represented such No. 1 picks as John Elway (1993), Steve Emtman (1992) and Courtney Brown (2000). "That's a pretty difficult trifecta."
Botched talent evaluations a la quarterbacks Tim Couch (1999) and possibly Alex Smith (2005) are only part of the problem. Injuries have derailed some No. 1 picks like Emtman, Brown and running back Ki-Jana Carter (1995). One star quarterback — Michael Vick (2001) -- is in prison. Other No. 1s enjoyed solid but unspectacular NFL careers like defensive tackles Dan "Big Daddy" Wilkinson (1994) and Russell Maryland (1991).
But much of the time, the club choosing first ultimately wishes another name was submitted on the draft card read by the NFL commissioner.
No. 1s, 1989-2007
Since 1989, retired Dallas Cowboys quarterback Troy Aikman is the only player selected with the draft's No. 1 overall pick in the Hall of Fame. Here is a look at the players chosen since then.
2007: Oakland QB JaMarcus Russell (Louisiana State): Missed all of the 2007 preseason in a contract holdout and started just one game as a rookie.
2006: Houston DE Mario Williams (North Carolina): Considered one of the NFL's top young pass rushers after notching 14 sacks in 2007.
2005: San Francisco QB Alex Smith (Utah): Has struggled adjusting from spread offense in college; will compete against journeymen Shaun Hill and J.T. O'Sullivan for a starting spot in training camp.
2004: New York Giants QB Eli Manning (Mississippi): Manning blossomed late in the 2007 season while leading the Giants to victory in Super Bowl XLII.
2003: Cincinnati QB Carson Palmer (Southern California): A fantastic player trapped on a poor team.
2002: Houston QB David Carr (Fresno State): Trying to resuscitate career with the Giants after wiping out in Houston and Carolina.
2001: Atlanta QB Michael Vick (Virginia Tech): NFL career may be over after being sentenced to prison on animal-abuse charges.
2000: Cleveland DE Courtney Brown (Penn State): Spent more time in the training room than on the field during seven NFL seasons.
1999: Cleveland QB Tim Couch (Kentucky): Arm problems ultimately ended a disappointing NFL career.
1998: Indianapolis QB Peyton Manning (Tennessee): Could ultimately set every major NFL passing record en route to joining Aikman in the Hall of Fame.
1997: St. Louis T Orlando Pace (Ohio State): Reached seven Pro Bowls in his first eight seasons but has missed 23 games the past two years because of arm injuries.
1996: New York Jets WR Keyshawn Johnson (Southern California): Voted to four Pro Bowls while playing for four different teams in 12 seasons.
1995: Cincinnati RB Ki-Jana Carter (Penn State): Injured his knee during a rookie preseason game and was never the same player.
1994: Cincinnati DT Dan Wilkinson (Ohio State): A solid run-stuffer who never fulfilled the athletic potential he showed in college.
1993: New England QB Drew Bledsoe (Washington State): Starred with New England until the emergence of Tom Brady; wasn't as successful during subsequent stints in Buffalo and Dallas.
1992: Indianapolis DT Steve Emtman (Washington): Knee injuries ruined what should have been a fine NFL career.
1991: Dallas DT Russell Maryland (Miami): While considered a reach when drafted, Maryland would ultimately reach one Pro Bowl in 10 NFL seasons.
1990: QB Jeff George (Illinois): Talent was overshadowed by attitude problems that contributed to his bouncing around seven different NFL teams in 15 seasons.
"There's a lot of pride associated with being the first pick," Houston Texans general manager Rick Smith said. "But there's also a lot of pressure."
Aikman felt that upon arriving in Dallas. He was immediately expected to help the Cowboys regain their lost glory from the 1970s and early 1980s.
Aikman had the unwavering support of Cowboys coaches and management through his early growing pains. Manning, Eli Manning (2004), Carson Palmer (2002) and Drew Bledsoe (1993) enjoyed that same luxury with their respective teams.
But similar backing didn't pay dividends for quarterbacks like Couch, David Carr (2002) and Jeff George (1990). The high hopes surrounding those players may have contributed to their struggles.
"If you're a first-round quarterback, the expectation is you're a franchise quarterback and are going to bring a world championship," said Aikman, who is now a FOX Sports NFL television analyst. "If you draft the same player in the fourth round, the expectations are entirely different.
"The way in which you're able to develop and perform ... maybe you don't get the opportunity as readily as the first-round pick. But when you get on the field, there is more of a grace period from fans and even those within the organization."
High picks in today's NFL are expected to produce quickly because of exorbitant rookie contracts. The first four players selected Saturday are each likely to score $20 million in guaranteed money before ever playing in an NFL game.
"Any first-round pick should be an impact player," said Miami coach Tony Sparano, whose team holds the top slot in this year's draft. "He should be a guy that can contribute and play for us right away. ... Obviously, the higher you pick, the greater the expectations. We're aware of that."
But not every player can fully grasp how much scrutiny they will receive, especially if joining a talent-strapped roster. Demoff points to Elway's 1983 arrival in Denver as an example.
"Stanford (University) never went to a bowl game with John," Demoff said. "John said, 'If I couldn't change that, how can I change the NFL in one or two years?' It takes a lot more than that player. Historically, those teams don't get there for three, four or five years and that player's impact can be really diminished by then."
Being selected by an expansion team is often bad news, as Couch and Carr can attest. So is joining a perennially losing franchise. For example, Cincinnati is about to select in the top 10 for the 11th time in 17 seasons. That doesn't bode well for Palmer, who has blossomed into one of the AFC's top quarterbacks after not playing his rookie season.
"When I went to the worst team in the league, it happened to be one with a rich history that had proven itself over the long haul," Aikman said. "A lot of teams picking No. 1 historically don't have that. They've been bad for a long time. It goes beyond the coaching and players. In my opinion, it starts with ownership and filters through the front office.
"Fortunately for me, I didn't lose confidence that I was going to be a good player and the team was going to be good."
The Texans appear to have learned from the mistakes made with Carr, who never recovered psychologically from the early beatings he took playing behind a lousy offensive line.
Houston coach Gary Kubiak said the team took steps to insure similar damage wasn't done to defensive end Mario Williams, the first player taken in 2006.
Williams toiled through an injury-plagued rookie season and the Texans were criticized because the players chosen immediately behind him (New Orleans running back Reggie Bush and Tennessee quarterback Vince Young) made an instant splash.
Kubiak said it took a collective effort by the Texans -- including assistant coaches and the team's media relations department -- to help Williams "keep it all in perspective."
"There's so much pressure on No. 1 picks," said Kubiak, whose team signed Williams to a six-year, $54.5 million contract with $26.5 million in guarantees. "There's a lot of money in their pockets and lot of people tugging on them. They're probably going to a team that's not very good. Trying to get him to hang on until he becomes a complete pro is the responsibility of a lot of people."
Today, nobody is saying Bush or Young would have been a better choice after Williams registered 14 sacks in 2007.
"He took a lot of bullets playing when he wasn't 100 percent (healthy)," Kubiak said. "I just think in his mind he went through it all and came out of it very confident of who he is now. You don't ever know if they're going to come out of it because it's a hell of a battle."
It's also one the Texans hope they are never forced to wage again because of a poor record. "Someone has to pick first," a laughing Smith said. "We do tons and tons of research, gather data, evaluate and do as much as we can do. But at the end of the day, it's still not an exact science."
by Alex MarvezAlex Marvez is a Senior NFL Writer for FOXSports.com. He's covered the NFL for 13 seasons as a beat writer and is the president of the Pro Football Writers of America.
First sometimes worst
So far, 2007 No. 1 overall pick JaMarcus Russell isn't looking particularly Aikman-esque. And he's in good company. Take a gander at the top selections since Troy Aikman shook the commish's hand back in 1989.
But compared to other players chosen with the draft's first overall pick, Troy Aikman considers himself lucky.
Aikman survived that 1989 season with the Dallas Cowboys en route to forging a Hall of Fame career and winning three championships.
Most of the other players subsequently selected at No. 1 haven't enjoyed such good fortune.
None besides Aikman currently have their busts on display in Canton. While some active players can still reach such heights, Indianapolis quarterback Peyton Manning (1998) is considered the lone lock among the past 19 top picks for future induction.
Manning is one of just five players drafted No. 1 since 1986 to reach a Super Bowl. Even more telling is the lack of Pro Bowl appearances. Only 11 of the past 20 top choices have earned that honor.
Considering a team can pick from an entire draft class, such production is disappointing. But one of the NFL's most respected agents says it shouldn't be surprising.
"It takes health, patience and the team that drafted you to become better," said Marvin Demoff, who has represented such No. 1 picks as John Elway (1993), Steve Emtman (1992) and Courtney Brown (2000). "That's a pretty difficult trifecta."
Botched talent evaluations a la quarterbacks Tim Couch (1999) and possibly Alex Smith (2005) are only part of the problem. Injuries have derailed some No. 1 picks like Emtman, Brown and running back Ki-Jana Carter (1995). One star quarterback — Michael Vick (2001) -- is in prison. Other No. 1s enjoyed solid but unspectacular NFL careers like defensive tackles Dan "Big Daddy" Wilkinson (1994) and Russell Maryland (1991).
But much of the time, the club choosing first ultimately wishes another name was submitted on the draft card read by the NFL commissioner.
No. 1s, 1989-2007
Since 1989, retired Dallas Cowboys quarterback Troy Aikman is the only player selected with the draft's No. 1 overall pick in the Hall of Fame. Here is a look at the players chosen since then.
2007: Oakland QB JaMarcus Russell (Louisiana State): Missed all of the 2007 preseason in a contract holdout and started just one game as a rookie.
2006: Houston DE Mario Williams (North Carolina): Considered one of the NFL's top young pass rushers after notching 14 sacks in 2007.
2005: San Francisco QB Alex Smith (Utah): Has struggled adjusting from spread offense in college; will compete against journeymen Shaun Hill and J.T. O'Sullivan for a starting spot in training camp.
2004: New York Giants QB Eli Manning (Mississippi): Manning blossomed late in the 2007 season while leading the Giants to victory in Super Bowl XLII.
2003: Cincinnati QB Carson Palmer (Southern California): A fantastic player trapped on a poor team.
2002: Houston QB David Carr (Fresno State): Trying to resuscitate career with the Giants after wiping out in Houston and Carolina.
2001: Atlanta QB Michael Vick (Virginia Tech): NFL career may be over after being sentenced to prison on animal-abuse charges.
2000: Cleveland DE Courtney Brown (Penn State): Spent more time in the training room than on the field during seven NFL seasons.
1999: Cleveland QB Tim Couch (Kentucky): Arm problems ultimately ended a disappointing NFL career.
1998: Indianapolis QB Peyton Manning (Tennessee): Could ultimately set every major NFL passing record en route to joining Aikman in the Hall of Fame.
1997: St. Louis T Orlando Pace (Ohio State): Reached seven Pro Bowls in his first eight seasons but has missed 23 games the past two years because of arm injuries.
1996: New York Jets WR Keyshawn Johnson (Southern California): Voted to four Pro Bowls while playing for four different teams in 12 seasons.
1995: Cincinnati RB Ki-Jana Carter (Penn State): Injured his knee during a rookie preseason game and was never the same player.
1994: Cincinnati DT Dan Wilkinson (Ohio State): A solid run-stuffer who never fulfilled the athletic potential he showed in college.
1993: New England QB Drew Bledsoe (Washington State): Starred with New England until the emergence of Tom Brady; wasn't as successful during subsequent stints in Buffalo and Dallas.
1992: Indianapolis DT Steve Emtman (Washington): Knee injuries ruined what should have been a fine NFL career.
1991: Dallas DT Russell Maryland (Miami): While considered a reach when drafted, Maryland would ultimately reach one Pro Bowl in 10 NFL seasons.
1990: QB Jeff George (Illinois): Talent was overshadowed by attitude problems that contributed to his bouncing around seven different NFL teams in 15 seasons.
"There's a lot of pride associated with being the first pick," Houston Texans general manager Rick Smith said. "But there's also a lot of pressure."
Aikman felt that upon arriving in Dallas. He was immediately expected to help the Cowboys regain their lost glory from the 1970s and early 1980s.
Aikman had the unwavering support of Cowboys coaches and management through his early growing pains. Manning, Eli Manning (2004), Carson Palmer (2002) and Drew Bledsoe (1993) enjoyed that same luxury with their respective teams.
But similar backing didn't pay dividends for quarterbacks like Couch, David Carr (2002) and Jeff George (1990). The high hopes surrounding those players may have contributed to their struggles.
"If you're a first-round quarterback, the expectation is you're a franchise quarterback and are going to bring a world championship," said Aikman, who is now a FOX Sports NFL television analyst. "If you draft the same player in the fourth round, the expectations are entirely different.
"The way in which you're able to develop and perform ... maybe you don't get the opportunity as readily as the first-round pick. But when you get on the field, there is more of a grace period from fans and even those within the organization."
High picks in today's NFL are expected to produce quickly because of exorbitant rookie contracts. The first four players selected Saturday are each likely to score $20 million in guaranteed money before ever playing in an NFL game.
"Any first-round pick should be an impact player," said Miami coach Tony Sparano, whose team holds the top slot in this year's draft. "He should be a guy that can contribute and play for us right away. ... Obviously, the higher you pick, the greater the expectations. We're aware of that."
But not every player can fully grasp how much scrutiny they will receive, especially if joining a talent-strapped roster. Demoff points to Elway's 1983 arrival in Denver as an example.
"Stanford (University) never went to a bowl game with John," Demoff said. "John said, 'If I couldn't change that, how can I change the NFL in one or two years?' It takes a lot more than that player. Historically, those teams don't get there for three, four or five years and that player's impact can be really diminished by then."
Being selected by an expansion team is often bad news, as Couch and Carr can attest. So is joining a perennially losing franchise. For example, Cincinnati is about to select in the top 10 for the 11th time in 17 seasons. That doesn't bode well for Palmer, who has blossomed into one of the AFC's top quarterbacks after not playing his rookie season.
"When I went to the worst team in the league, it happened to be one with a rich history that had proven itself over the long haul," Aikman said. "A lot of teams picking No. 1 historically don't have that. They've been bad for a long time. It goes beyond the coaching and players. In my opinion, it starts with ownership and filters through the front office.
"Fortunately for me, I didn't lose confidence that I was going to be a good player and the team was going to be good."
The Texans appear to have learned from the mistakes made with Carr, who never recovered psychologically from the early beatings he took playing behind a lousy offensive line.
Houston coach Gary Kubiak said the team took steps to insure similar damage wasn't done to defensive end Mario Williams, the first player taken in 2006.
Williams toiled through an injury-plagued rookie season and the Texans were criticized because the players chosen immediately behind him (New Orleans running back Reggie Bush and Tennessee quarterback Vince Young) made an instant splash.
Kubiak said it took a collective effort by the Texans -- including assistant coaches and the team's media relations department -- to help Williams "keep it all in perspective."
"There's so much pressure on No. 1 picks," said Kubiak, whose team signed Williams to a six-year, $54.5 million contract with $26.5 million in guarantees. "There's a lot of money in their pockets and lot of people tugging on them. They're probably going to a team that's not very good. Trying to get him to hang on until he becomes a complete pro is the responsibility of a lot of people."
Today, nobody is saying Bush or Young would have been a better choice after Williams registered 14 sacks in 2007.
"He took a lot of bullets playing when he wasn't 100 percent (healthy)," Kubiak said. "I just think in his mind he went through it all and came out of it very confident of who he is now. You don't ever know if they're going to come out of it because it's a hell of a battle."
It's also one the Texans hope they are never forced to wage again because of a poor record. "Someone has to pick first," a laughing Smith said. "We do tons and tons of research, gather data, evaluate and do as much as we can do. But at the end of the day, it's still not an exact science."
