Why Draft Reaches hurt more than you think

Discussion in 'Draft Zone' started by Verdict, Jan 22, 2019.

  1. Verdict

    Verdict Well-Known Member

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    Concensus draft reaches seem to almost always fail, although Travis Frederick could be alleged to potentially be a notable exception. Draft reaches hurt you because you waste the pick, but arguably that may not be the biggest detriment to a failed "reach".

    Possibly the bigger issue with a reach is that in order to be a significant reach the player must be taken high. A first round reach is going to be given every opportunity (including playing time) to win the position.

    In that situation teams will seldom "double dip" at the position so the reach results in the position going unfilled. We haven't made any other significant swings in the draft at DE other than Taco.

    I know Armstrong was a late 4th flyer but that's a low probability pick. Hopefully he pans out. At this stage if Taco doesn't significantly outperform Armstrong in training camp I would try to get something out of Taco and move on.
     
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  2. QuincyCarterEra

    QuincyCarterEra Well-Known Member

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    Taco was seen as a 1st rounder much more so than LVE. We took LVE higher than we took Taco.

    LVE was the reach that worked. We later drafted Covington after reaching for LVE.
    Taco was the consensus pick and it burned us, and we didn't draft a DE after making that concensus pick.

    I didn't like either pick at the time, but I'm glad I was wrong on LVE.
     
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  3. charron

    charron Well-Known Member

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    When you pick in the lower 1st round it's really hard to not overdraft. Most good DE or DT's with a 1st round grade are gone unless they have off field issues. Like you said reaching can screw up your draft and cause you to take a whole bunch of lesser players. They've continued to pour resources all over the defense. For the record someone previously posted taco graded way above armstrong.

    2012 they draft Crawford 3rd round
    2014 traded up for Lawrence
    2015 Randy fell to us in the 2nd here and Russel 5th round-
    2016 Tapper 4th round- We could have had a stud DE here but we took the leagues leading rusher 2 of the next 3 years....thats a win
    2017 Taco in the 1st
    2018 Armstrong in the 4th- Vander esch is better than most DE where he was taken
     
  4. Verdict

    Verdict Well-Known Member

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    Actually Taco was a super big reach. He had limited measurable (speed) and a limited track record at Michigan against inferior Big 10 competition. I always believed his speed numbers indicated that he would have to rely on power as a pass rusher.

    He really hasn't visibly improved his power that much and hasn't really progressed very well. He may be better served to bulk up and move inside to DT. He might be a little bit faster (relatively) than his opponent on the inside.

    I would sure like to see this draft pick pan out. It's bad to waste a first round pick.

    Also, although LVE was largely a projection, he had the numbers and was not really a reach. But I am sure almost everyone (including me) figured he would need some time to develop. I'm it sure anyone saw him being as dominant as he was almost immediately.
     
  5. QuincyCarterEra

    QuincyCarterEra Well-Known Member

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    Notice the holes you pointed out for Taco that you tried to make to claim he was a reach.

    1. Limited speed
    2. Limited track record- Played four years at Michigan and all through high school, so much much much more than LVE
    3. Inferior competition- Big 10 is a top 3-4 conference while LVE played at Boise in the MWC lol

    So of your three knocks on Taco, LVE was worse in two of them but yet you don't mention it.

    It's a bad argument all the way around.

    The truth is Taco was seen as the safe pick, while LVE was the reach pick. You can take it or leave it doesnt matter to me.
     
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  6. cnuball21

    cnuball21 Well-Known Member

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    This is incorrect.

    Taco was drafted right where he was slated. Fringe 1st rounder.

    LVE was overdrafted and he was slated as a fringe 1st rounder as well.

    Just because LVE has over produced doesn’t mean he wasn’t a teach.
     
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  7. CapnB

    CapnB Well-Known Member

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    Guess it depends on what is a risk and what isnt. Especially when everyone drafted is a risk when you think about it. No sure things,
     
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  8. Verdict

    Verdict Well-Known Member

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    I guess it's a matter of perspective. I guess we can agree to disagree.
     
  9. Risen Star

    Risen Star Likes Collector Zone Supporter

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    [​IMG]

    Yeah, I'm gonna regret that.
     
  10. conner01

    conner01 Well-Known Member

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    I would cut him for that celebration
     
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  11. conner01

    conner01 Well-Known Member

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    Reaching rarely works out. What is a reach is really a debate. I didn’t see Fred as a reach but some did. I think the majority of reached come from drafting for need
    Drafting a player because you need say a DT is rarely a good move because it means you didn’t follow your board
    This team is built on good drafts and cheap FA
    I would like to see the team look at out bigger needs and look at their projected board and see what they aren’t likely to get. Then go out and fill that spot with a premium FA
     
  12. DanA

    DanA Well-Known Member

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    Measurables got Taco drafted. He had 341/4 inch arms, weighed 275, a SPARQ score of 121 and a production ratio of 2.17 at a big school. I never liked the pick but it was because of his tape compared to TJ Watt rather than measurables or production.
     
  13. Verdict

    Verdict Well-Known Member

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    His 40 time was horrendous. People keep saying that doesn't matter, and that the short shuttle and 3 come are more relevant. Some of the people saying it, I respect. So far though, from my perspective Taco has experienced a tough time getting to the QB and the biggest impediment to him getting it done is lack of overall speed.

    I said when Taco was drafted I felt like he would have to do it with power because he has below average speed. So far, it looks like that is still the case. Unless Taco gets a lot stronger, or kicks inside, or both, I think his lack of overall speed is going to continue to hold him back.
     
  14. CalPolyTechnique

    CalPolyTechnique Well-Known Member

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    Compare his metrics to Joey Bosa.

    Dwell on it a bit.....then vacate the draft forum.

    Any argument about a DE that starts with a discussion of his 40 time is comedy.
     
  15. Manwiththeplan

    Manwiththeplan Well-Known Member

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    LVE was not a fringe first round prospect and was not a reach. Even mock drafts that had us taking someone else, almost always had him in the first round, taken a bit after us. I think there were even some that had him going a few picks higher than us.
     
  16. DanA

    DanA Well-Known Member

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    Horrendous is an exaggeration IMO, it wasn't great, but it was in the range you'd expect a 277lb guy to run. He ran 4.92 at the combine and then improved to a 4.75 at his pro-day. Compare that to Derek Barnett who was 17lbs lighter and ran 4.88 at the combine and 4.90 at his pro day. IMO Taco is a bad pass rusher because he has been unable to absorb coaching and develop pass rushing moves, not because he's slow. Incidentally, Lawrence ran 4.80 at 251lbs which for his weight was IMO a worse time.
     
  17. Idgit

    Idgit Riding the Red Rocket Staff Member

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    Especially at QB. You’re right: he snaps you give to poor players you draft high can kill you.

    In Taco’s case, he was t a terrible player in 2017. He wasn’t a great pick. But it was his attitude that apparently got him this season, and he’s not good enough to get the benefit of the doubt with that.
     
  18. CATCH17

    CATCH17 1st Round Pick

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    LVE was not a reach. Not after his pro day.

    His measurables were off the charts and he had the production and also showed the ability to play in space.
     
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  19. CATCH17

    CATCH17 1st Round Pick

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    Taco was always projected to go in the area he did.
     
  20. CATCH17

    CATCH17 1st Round Pick

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    Travis Frederick was a reach. Nobody had him as a first rounder and the Cowboys knew that so they traded back and took him in the first so they could get the fifth year option because they value that so much.
     

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