Why Draft Reaches hurt more than you think

[QuincyCarterEra]

LVE was not a reach. Not after his pro day.

His measurables were off the charts and he had the production and also showed the ability to play in space.

It was a reach. Just stating facts.

 

[CATCH17]

It was a reach. Just stating facts.

If that’s how you feel but that is your fact and nobody else’s.

But it was obvious he was going high after his pro day.

Just like Demarcus Ware. When you have those measurables at that size and you were also productive then you’re going first round. It’s just how the draft works.

 

[QuincyCarterEra]

If that’s how you feel but that is your fact and nobody else’s.

But it was obvious he was going high after his pro day.

Just like Demarcus Ware. When you have those measurables at that size and you were also productive then you’re going first round. It’s just how the draft works.

It's not a personal opinion, it's a fact as I've said multiple times. Just informing you.

 

[CATCH17]

It's not a personal opinion, it's a fact as I've said multiple times. Just informing you.

Ok well I’m informing you that you are wrong and my predictions before the draft and where he ended up going validate and prove what I said to be fact.. You have a nice opinion though.

 

[conner01]

Travis Frederick was a reach. Nobody had him as a first rounder and the Cowboys knew that so they traded back and took him in the first so they could get the fifth year option because they value that so much.

I thought he was the best center in the draft

 

[CATCH17]

I thought he was the best center in the draft

Even if he was the best center how often does a center go round 1?

 

[conner01]

Even if he was the best center how often does a center go round 1?

I felt he was first rnd talent
And though you might have traded back some and got him we lost Unger years before

 

[QuincyCarterEra]

Ok well I’m informing you that you are wrong and my predictions before the draft and where he ended up going validate and prove what I said to be fact.. You have a nice opinion though.

He was a fringe 1st/2nd rounder that was picked in the middle of thefirst.
You're wrong again

 

[CATCH17]

He was a fringe 1st/2nd rounder that was picked in the middle of thefirst.
You're wrong again

You state your opinion as if it’s fact. It’s not.

When that Pro Day happened he was always going round 1.

 

[xwalker]

Concensus draft reaches seem to almost always fail, although Travis Frederick could be alleged to potentially be a notable exception. Draft reaches hurt you because you waste the pick, but arguably that may not be the biggest detriment to a failed "reach".

Possibly the bigger issue with a reach is that in order to be a significant reach the player must be taken high. A first round reach is going to be given every opportunity (including playing time) to win the position.

In that situation teams will seldom "double dip" at the position so the reach results in the position going unfilled. We haven't made any other significant swings in the draft at DE other than Taco.

I know Armstrong was a late 4th flyer but that's a low probability pick. Hopefully he pans out. At this stage if Taco doesn't significantly outperform Armstrong in training camp I would try to get something out of Taco and move on.

There are different types of "reaches".

The majority of the draft media thought Frederick would be a solid player. Many just didn't have him as a first round player.

Nobody other than the Cowboys thought Shante Carver had 1st round talent (or even 2nd round talent). Carver himself said he expected to be drafted in the 5th round.

Taco is not failing due to lack of physical ability. He is failing due to his mental make-up. They drafted him about where most of the draft media projected him to be drafted.

This draft analysis repeated the warnings signs multiple times in regards to questions about his toughness and effort as well as needing coaching on fundamentals.

ANALYSIS
STRENGTHS
Rare combination of size, length and athletic traits as a rusher. Long-levered frame with athletic, knotted calves. Brings freaky athletic traits to table and is still growing into his body. Flashes instant reaction time off snap and up the field thanks to his twitch. Has enough upfield juice to push offensive tackles into hasty retreat. Generates pop through speed-to-power element. Very good flexibility throughout. Able to sink and swerve around corner if he gets early lead in race to the edge. Possesses hip swivel combined with shoulder turn to slip and flip around the corner of an offensive tackle he's engaged with as a pass rusher. Rushes with forward lean that keeps his momentum downhill. Uses rip-and-stab move and an ominous spin move that could turn into a dominant rush trait in the NFL. Elongated lateral slides can open into sprint very quickly to chase run play bouncing outside. Length gives him a shot at dramatically increasing his play-making ability against the run. Hand usage is improving.
WEAKNESSES
Despite talent and traits, production and overall play has been uneven at Michigan. Earned full-time starting nod in just his final season. Needs more weight-room work. Consistency of anchor at point of attack in question. Can be rooted out of his gap by power. Can do better job of using his length to keep blockers off of him. Doesn't make enough plays on other side of the line against run. Needs to show a nastier play demeanor at all times. Scouts question whether he has enough toughness for trench battles if bumped inside or to 5-technique. Held back by his inconsistent play speed. Excessive leaning and narrowing of his base during the play causes balance and footwork inconsistencies. Needs better readiness to take on move blockers.
DRAFT PROJECTION
Round 1
SOURCES TELL US
"Really, really talented player. You won't always see it on every play so that is going to be a coach's job to get that out of him. Rushers with his size and athleticism are hard to find and they usually go very early in the draft." -- AFC executive
NFL COMPARISON
Chandler Jones
BOTTOM LINE
"Inconsistent" has been the buzzword that has followed Charlton since coming to Michigan, but he began the process of shaking it during his senior season. Charlton is an ascending prospect with the size, length, athleticism and pass-rushing potential that NFL general managers dream of. What you see today might not be what you get. While his production coming out of college will be modest, he could become a substantially better player as a pro if he's committed to the weight room and willing to absorb coaching. High-impact defensive end with all-pro potential is his ceiling. His floor is solid starter.

 

[xwalker]

Travis Frederick was a reach. Nobody had him as a first rounder and the Cowboys knew that so they traded back and took him in the first so they could get the fifth year option because they value that so much.

Actually many of the draft media had him in the 1st until he posted poor times at the combine. I should have saved some of those media mock drafts from before that combine.

 

[DFWJC]

Just because a player is taken higher than most mock drafts have him taken does not make him a reach.
We don't know what very team's draft board looks like, but we know for sure they don't look exactly like people think they do pre-draft.

We do see teams panic sometimes base on need (WR Troy Williamson taken 7th overall in 2004) or maybe someone experimenting (think when Jax took former QB Matt Jones, in the 1st round to play WR).

In reality, future production is what tells us if a player was truly a reach or not.

Freddy really wasn't a reach at 31.
He would've been a reach if we took him at 18, but only because we knew he could still get him way later.
Ended up getting Frederick and T Williams for the 18th pick.(and most of us wanted OT Terrance Armstead when we took TWill at 74...now THAT would've been amazing)

 

[xwalker]

Concensus draft reaches seem to almost always fail, although Travis Frederick could be alleged to potentially be a notable exception. Draft reaches hurt you because you waste the pick, but arguably that may not be the biggest detriment to a failed "reach".

Possibly the bigger issue with a reach is that in order to be a significant reach the player must be taken high. A first round reach is going to be given every opportunity (including playing time) to win the position.

In that situation teams will seldom "double dip" at the position so the reach results in the position going unfilled. We haven't made any other significant swings in the draft at DE other than Taco.

I know Armstrong was a late 4th flyer but that's a low probability pick. Hopefully he pans out. At this stage if Taco doesn't significantly outperform Armstrong in training camp I would try to get something out of Taco and move on.

Great point about the fact that if the Cowboys draft a position in the top 3 rounds, they are unlikely to use a premium pick at that position the following couple of years or more.

To me the concept goes beyond a draft bust. Even if the player is OK to good, that's the player the team/fans are likely stuck with for a significant period of time.

The Cowboys were unlikely to use a 1st round pick on a WR when Dez was their #1 WR. Originally because they had used a 1st on him and then because they invested huge cap dollars into him.

We ended up stuck with the turd for way too long.

This concept had been a problem for many teams over the years in terms of drafting QBs. Bad teams tend to draft a QB when they have one of the top picks in the draft; however, if they could pick any QB over a 3 or 5 year period, they would likely pick a different QB than the ones available the specific year that they have a top pick.

 

[Hardline]

Travis Frederick was a reach. Nobody had him as a first rounder and the Cowboys knew that so they traded back and took him in the first so they could get the fifth year option because they value that so much.

I loved the Frederick pick at the time being familiar with Wisconsin football.I knew exactly what we were getting with him.
I think the only reason most people hated the pick was Sheriff Floyd was still on the board.

 

[CATCH17]

I loved the Frederick pick at the time being familiar with Wisconsin football.I knew exactly what we were getting with him.
I think the only reason most people hated the pick was Sheriff Floyd was still on the board.

For myself I misevaluated him.

His footwork looked beyond awful to me. Constantly falling. Linemen should have good feet and his looked awful to me.

 

[DasSchnitzel]

The thing is, these teams are working off of their own evaluations, not what they read or see online. What we perceive as a "reach" by some team might be a steal in their minds.

I think it's less about draft day decision making and more about their respective evaluations relative to the mainstream. Given the knowledge of exactly what they want and their own evaluation resources, I think any team should have that latitude. This is especially true for a team with a good track record in the draft, such as the 2010s Cowboys.

 

[CalPolyTechnique]

The thing is, these teams are working off of their own evaluations, not what they read or see online. What we perceive as a "reach" by some team might be a steal in their minds.

I think it's less about draft day decision making and more about their respective evaluations relative to the mainstream. Given the knowledge of exactly what they want and their own evaluation resources, I think any team should have that latitude. This is especially true for a team with a good track record in the draft, such as the 2010s Cowboys.

1000x

The entire premise is laughable.

NFL teams have their own scouts, experience, and access to the actual prospects to form their own boards. To think a player is a “reach” because Draftek3000 or WalterFootball had them later is comedy.

 

[Mobinvans]

Taco was seen as a 1st rounder much more so than LVE. We took LVE higher than we took Taco.

LVE was the reach that worked. We later drafted Covington after reaching for LVE.
Taco was the consensus pick and it burned us, and we didn't draft a DE after making that concensus pick.

I didn't like either pick at the time, but I'm glad I was wrong on LVE.

I regrettably agree with that