Why NE succeeded at the 12 and we failed

[Galian Beast]

We've been trying to get the 12 personnel going since we drafted Anthony Fasano in 2006.

The Patriots went to the 12 personnel in in 2010 and they were successful with it by the next year.

So why were they able to have such quick success, where we failed twice with Fasano and Bennett? Despite having a future hall of fame tight end?

Well could it be because we were drafting players who weren't really successful pass catchers in the first place?

Anthony Fasano had 1112 yards and 8 touchdowns in 3 years.
Martellus Bennett had 708 yards and 7 touchdowns in 3 years.

Compare this to Gronkowski and Hernandez?

Rob Gronkowski 1197 yards and 16 touchdowns in 2 years.
Aaron Hernandez 1382 yards and 12 touchdowns in 3 years.

As you can see they were much more established receivers than both Fasano and Bennett.

Then there is part of the reality that Fasano actually did develop into somewhat of a receiver. He has 24 career touchdowns in Miami of all places.

So with all that being said, where does Escobar match up?

Gavin Escobar 1646 yards and 17 touchdowns in 3 years.

How does he stand up against Eifert and Ertz?

Tyler Eifert 1840 yards, 11 touchdowns in 3 years.
Zach Ertz 1434 yards, 15 touchdowns in 3 years.

So, while many of us probably aren't ecstatic about this pick, especially given our history with tight ends in the second round. We probably should look at things in perspective and not hold that history against Gavin Escobar. The guy is a legit pass catcher, and may certainly give us a similar dimension that New England enjoys.

Some may mention that New England has a better offensive line. I think we're working on that. I would also mention that we have better wide receivers than they do (by far). If we can really put together something on this offense line, I think we'll be extremely productive next year.

 

[StanleySpadowski]

We've been trying to get the 12 personnel going since we drafted Anthony Fasano in 2006.

The Patriots went to the 12 personnel in in 2010 and they were successful with it by the next year.

So why were they able to have such quick success, where we failed twice with Fasano and Bennett? Despite having a future hall of fame tight end?

Well could it be because we were drafting players who weren't really successful pass catchers in the first place?

Anthony Fasano had 1112 yards and 8 touchdowns in 3 years.
Martellus Bennett had 708 yards and 7 touchdowns in 3 years.

Compare this to Gronkowski and Hernandez?

Rob Gronkowski 1197 yards and 16 touchdowns in 2 years.
Aaron Hernandez 1382 yards and 12 touchdowns in 3 years.

As you can see they were much more established receivers than both Fasano and Bennett.

Then there is part of the reality that Fasano actually did develop into somewhat of a receiver. He has 24 career touchdowns in Miami of all places.

So with all that being said, where does Escobar match up?

Gavin Escobar 1646 yards and 17 touchdowns in 3 years.

How does he stand up against Eifert and Ertz?

Tyler Eifert 1840 yards, 11 touchdowns in 3 years.
Zach Ertz 1434 yards, 15 touchdowns in 3 years.

So, while many of us probably aren't ecstatic about this pick, especially given our history with tight ends in the second round. We probably should look at things in perspective and not hold that history against Gavin Escobar. The guy is a legit pass catcher, and may certainly give us a similar dimension that New England enjoys.

Some may mention that New England has a better offensive line. I think we're working on that. I would also mention that we have better wide receivers than they do (by far). If we can really put together something on this offense line, I think we'll be extremely productive next year.

Dallas was very successful in the 12. It was Dallas' most productive alignment up until last season even it it wasn't the 2nd TE getting the ball. The YPC in the running game was significantly higher in that formation and the Passer Rating was higher also.

Phillips was really disappointing as a blocker and offered no threat to free up other receivers. Hanna was an even worse blocker than Phillips.

 

[TheRomoSexual]

Thank you. That was a fantastic post.

 

[Galian Beast]

Dallas was very successful in the 12. It was Dallas' most productive alignment up until last season even it it wasn't the 2nd TE getting the ball. The YPC in the running game was significantly higher in that formation and the Passer Rating was higher also.

Phillips was really disappointing as a blocker and offered no threat to free up other receivers. Hanna was an even worse blocker than Phillips.

By successful, I simply meant it didn't turn us into world beaters. I think they liked the 12 formation and felt they could get a lot more out of it by getting someone who was a real threat to catch the ball opposite of witten.

 

[dogberry]

My concern is that we will have to use Witten as the main blocker in our 2 TE sets.

That's the offensive equivalent of Ware covering receivers.

 

[TheDude]

While a valid theory from the OP, does anyone really think dallas 2TE set will be run like NE?

First, NE runs a blistering place on offense and sub packages on Defenses are mitigated. Dallas is a slow and plodding offense in execution.

2nd, the timing and routes for NE via Brady is much more adept than the Cowboys. Romo is actually at his best when he improvises. He doesn't like to through someone open or fit it in super tight windows.

This isn't a bash on Romo, but I dont see Dallas using the 2TE set effectively.

 

[Galian Beast]

My concern is that we will have to use Witten as the main blocker in our 2 TE sets.

That's the offensive equivalent of Ware covering receivers.

Does either Hernandez or Gronkowski get stuck blocking? I think that is an irrational fear.

While a valid theory from the OP, does anyone really think dallas 2TE set will be run like NE?

First, NE runs a blistering place on offense and sub packages on Defenses are mitigated. Dallas is a slow and plodding offense in execution.

2nd, the timing and routes for NE via Brady is much more adept than the Cowboys. Romo is actually at his best when he improvises. He doesn't like to through someone open or fit it in super tight windows.

This isn't a bash on Romo, but I dont see Dallas using the 2TE set effectively.

We've been slow and plodding because of the limitations we've had to deal with. We haven't been a very fast offense in some time. Neither Dez or Miles has blazing speed.


When I compare us to New England, I'm not saying we're going to use their playbook. I'm just saying with that personnel we can have a lot of similar mismatches.

What isn't known about Belicheck is that he runs the ball often. Almost always in the top 10 in rushing attempts. This didn't change even when going to the two tight ends system. The reality is that it gives you more options in what you can do in the passing game and in the running game.

Romo throws to witten often, it's usually because he has one on ones. Romo will throw into tight spaces, he just doesn't often like to throw into double coverage. The more weapons you have, the less double coverage can be used.

Base Defense

X X
X X X
X X X X X x
Base Offense
O O O O O OO O
O
O
O

In this formation you can have both safeties deep essentially bracketing the wide receivers. A linebacker takes the tight end, and a linebacker takes the running back. Another linebacker takes the fullback.

You put an extra wide receiver out there though, and now you generally have to remove a linebacker, and put in a corner. That being said, this wide receiver has single coverage, and a huge advantage compared to the wide receivers who are bracketed.

It's the same for a pass catching tight end.

So you put more receivers or pass catching tight ends out there, the more one on one situations you have in your passing route. The more one on one situations, the more likely someone will be open for a pass. You also have reduced the available number of blitzers, without taking away one of the brackets or leaving someone completely uncovered.

 

[Hoofbite]

QB, scheme, lack of WRs behind Welker.

All likely factors.

As for Bennett's numbers:

Bennett started 23 of 36 games he appeared in at Texas A&M. He tied the school career-record for tight ends with 105 receptions (ranks tied for fifth overall), good for 1,246 yards (11.9-yard average), as his 10 touchdown grabs rank tied for eighth on the school's all-time record chart). He also recorded five tackles (3 solos) and recovered one fumble.

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/players/historical/564954

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

QB, scheme, lack of WRs behind Welker.

All likely factors.

As for Bennett's numbers:



http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/players/historical/564954

In 36 games that is 3 catches for 35 yards and .3 TD per game.

 

[Galian Beast]

QB, scheme, lack of WRs behind Welker.

All likely factors.

As for Bennett's numbers:



http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/players/historical/564954

Looks like PFR had bad numbers on bennett, my bad. Still signifigantly less than Escobar.

 

[Hoofbite]

In 36 games that is 3 catches for 35 yards and .3 TD per game.

Not really sure why it matters. I don't think the reason it didn't work in Dallas with Bennett was because he couldn't catch.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Not really sure why it matters. I don't think the reason it didn't work in Dallas with Bennett was because he couldn't catch.

I don't know that it does either. It seems average to me.

He was a body catcher though. When he had to reach for the ball..... clang! TIP DRILL!!!

 

[Galian Beast]

Not really sure why it matters. I don't think the reason it didn't work in Dallas with Bennett was because he couldn't catch.

I certainly think it didn't work because he couldn't catch consistently, couldn't get separation, and didn't know what he was doing for the most part. At some point they simply stopped putting him in as many passing routes.


I think his success in New York to some extent denotes what he was capable of. Similarly to Fasano.

It's not like they were incapable of catching passes. I think scheme certainly has had a great deal to do with it. I also think it's because of the people in front of them.

Like someone said, since the pats went to the two tight end system, they really haven't had a whole lot of weapons at receiver outside of welker.

In Dallas we have Dez Bryant, Miles Austin, Jason Witten. So a second tight end is already 4th on the pecking order at best.

We drafted Escobar, but it'll be difficult for him to put up numbers if people ahead of him stay healthy.

How I would chart things right now:

Dez Bryant
Miles Austin
Jason Witten
Terrance Williams
Dwayne Harris
Gavin Escobar
Cole Beasley
James Hanna
Danny Coale

it obviously gets dicey near the end... but the point is that is too many balls to go around.

Bennett got 90 targets in New York. The most he got in a season in dallas was 48.

We have around 550-600 targets a year. That's top side about 37.5 passes per game. If Dez gets 150 targets, and Witten and Austin both get about 125 each. That's already 400 targets. Leaving 150-200 targets for the remaining receivers and running backs.

Somethings got to give.

Based on last year, I would say that we need to reduce Witten's role in the offense. Give him maybe 100 targets max. And distribute the extra outwards to other players who average more yards per target.

Miles Austin really needs to play better. And I think he will.

Ogletree will be replaced by Williams.

So maybe Escobar gets about 50-70 targets next year. Depending on Williams role vs his role. That is still a lot less than Hernandez though.

We probably need to stop throwing to running backs as much as we do too.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

That's a good point about Witten's workload. He started playing when he was 20 so he's not long in the tooth but hes got 1000s of NFL snaps under his belt.

 

[dogberry]

I love the high percentage that running backs catch. Probably would though to them more. Lot of good receivers and too few balls. I'm too risk averse. Hated throwing to TO on third down.

 

[TheRomoSexual]

I certainly think it didn't work because he couldn't catch consistently, couldn't get separation, and didn't know what he was doing for the most part. At some point they simply stopped putting him in as many passing routes.


I think his success in New York to some extent denotes what he was capable of. Similarly to Fasano.

It's not like they were incapable of catching passes. I think scheme certainly has had a great deal to do with it. I also think it's because of the people in front of them.

Like someone said, since the pats went to the two tight end system, they really haven't had a whole lot of weapons at receiver outside of welker.

In Dallas we have Dez Bryant, Miles Austin, Jason Witten. So a second tight end is already 4th on the pecking order at best.

We drafted Escobar, but it'll be difficult for him to put up numbers if people ahead of him stay healthy.

How I would chart things right now:

Dez Bryant
Miles Austin
Jason Witten
Terrance Williams
Dwayne Harris
Gavin Escobar
Cole Beasley
James Hanna
Danny Coale

it obviously gets dicey near the end... but the point is that is too many balls to go around.

Bennett got 90 targets in New York. The most he got in a season in dallas was 48.

We have around 550-600 targets a year. That's top side about 37.5 passes per game. If Dez gets 150 targets, and Witten and Austin both get about 125 each. That's already 400 targets. Leaving 150-200 targets for the remaining receivers and running backs.

Somethings got to give.

Based on last year, I would say that we need to reduce Witten's role in the offense. Give him maybe 100 targets max. And distribute the extra outwards to other players who average more yards per target.

Miles Austin really needs to play better. And I think he will.

Ogletree will be replaced by Williams.

So maybe Escobar gets about 50-70 targets next year. Depending on Williams role vs his role. That is still a lot less than Hernandez though.

We probably need to stop throwing to running backs as much as we do too.

I'm not sure I entirely agree with this assessment.

I think Escobar and Williams take away targets from Witten and Austin. Witten had 117 targets in 2011 and 150 in 2012. 150 is way too many.

I think next season, Dez gets 150 targets, Miles and Witten drop closer to 100, and Escobar and Williams each get around 70-80. Then, next season, Austin will probably be gone, so the breakdown will be something along the lines of 150 Dez and between 90-125 for each of Williams, Witten, and Escobar.

 

[CowboyRoy]

There is nooooo mystery why. We have Garrett and they have bellicheck. We have romo and they have Brady. We have one of the worst lines in the nfl and they have one of the best. No mystery here.

 

[CowboyRoy]

Bottom line is that Escobar will be lucky to catch 20 passes next year. Williams will be lucky to get 10-15. Wilcox will most likely play special teams. And we all know Garrett is slow to incorporate rookies into his offense barring an injury forcing him.

 

[TheRomoSexual]

Bottom line is that Escobar will be lucky to catch 20 passes next year. Williams will be lucky to get 10-15. Wilcox will most likely play special teams. And we all know Garrett is slow to incorporate rookies into his offense barring an injury forcing him.

Bottom line is you are wrong.

 

[sbark]

I think by pace......it means no huddle. Give Romo the reins during games as happened last year when we got down big in the 1st half, that is what the Pats do with Brady, and it showed the success needed when Garrett was forced to just let Romo have the playcalling reins.

what frustrates me, we have a player with the speed of a Hernandez in Hanna, I'd like to see his actvity in the offense increased up the seam to keep teams from rolling double coveage toward Dez, take that potential Skins Blitzing LB and force him into coverage with a speed TE.

....In comparison to NE, it was Welker, now Amendolla that is the pressure release, which Garrett has to come up with, and probably what JJ was talking about in terms of "scheme"---think how many sacks Brady has avoided going to Welker quickly and how much better it makes NE off. Line statisticlly haveing a WCO type release point in a Welker (Coale, Beasley?)