WR In the First Round Is a Horrible Idea

[FuzzyLumpkins]

I made this post last night at the end of a thread and it got no love at 1 AM and seeing as i put some work into it I decided to let it stand on its own.

I went back 25 years and looked at 3 of the highest bust factor positions in the draft, WR DE and OT. WRs have gotten a bad rap but so have DE with Wadsworth, Mamula dn Brown as well as OT with Mike Williams and Tony Mandarich. Heres what I got:

Since 1982 these are all the WR, DE and OT drafted in the first. Next to their names is either bust or boom. In order to be a bust you had to not make it to season 5, not start for the majority of their career or thier numbers sucked.

WR

Anthony Hancock bust
Lindsay Scott bust
Perry Tuttle bust
Mike Quick boom
Willie Gault boom
Irving Fryar boom
Kenny Jackson bust
Clyde Duncan bust
Louis Lipps boom
Al Toon boom
Eddie Brown boom
Jerry Rice boom
Jessie Hester bust
Mike Sherrard bust
Tim McGee boom
Haywood Jeffries boom
Ricky Nattiel boom
Mark Ingram boom
Tim Brown boom
Sterling Sharpe boom
Michael Irvin boom
Anthony Miller boom
Aaron Cox bust
Wendell Davis bust
Eric Metcalf bust
Hart Lee Dykes bust
Andre rison boom
Shawn Collins bust
Herman Moore boom
Alvin Harper boom
Mike Pritchard bust
Randall Hill bust
Desmond Howard bust
Curtis Conway bust
Sean Dawkins boom
OJ McDuffie boom
Charles Johnson bust
Johnnie Morton boom
Thomas Lewis bust
Derrick Alexander boom
Michael Westbrook bust
Joey Galloway boom
JJ Stokes bust
Key Johnson boom
Terry Glenn boom
Eddie Kennison boom
Marvin Harrison boom
Eric Moulds boom
Ike Hilliard boom
Yatil Green bust
Reidel anthony bust
Rae Carruth bust
Kevin Dyson bust
Randy Moss boom
Marcus Nash bust
Torry Holt boom
Davis Boston bust
Troy Edwards bust
Peter Warrick bust
Plax Burress boom
Travis Taylor bust
Sylvester Morris bust
RJ Soward bust
David Terrell bust
Koren Robinson bust
Rod Gardener bust
Sanatana Moss boom
Freddie Mtchell bust
Reggie Wayne boom
Donte Stallworth bust mediocre
Ashley Lelie boom
Javon Walker boom

36 of 73 or 49% busts

DE
Ken Sims bust
Jeff Bryant boom
Glenn Collins bust
Mike Pitts boom
Jim Jeffcoat boom
Rick Bryan boom
Alphonso Carriker boom
Ron Faurot bust
Pete Koch bust
Bruce Smith boom
Chris Doleman boom
Ron Holmes boom
Kevin Brooks bust
Darryl Sims bust
Jon Hand boom
Leslie Oneal boom
Gerald Robinson boom
Tim Green boom
Eric Dorsey bust
Bob Buczkowski bust
Reggie Rogers bust
John Bosa bust
Jason Buck boom
Tony Woods boom
Aundray Bruce boom
Neil Smith boom
Aaron Jones boom
Derrick Thomas boom
Burt Grossman boom
Trace Armstrong boom
Jeff Lageman boom
Wayne Martin boom
Bill Hawkins bust
Keith McCants boom
Anthony Smith boom
Marco Coleman boom
Alonzo Spellman boom
Chris Mims boom
Robert Porcher boom
John Copeland boom
Eric Curry bust
Bryant Young boom
Joe Johnson boom
Shante Carver bust
Derrick Alexander boom
Kevin Carter boom
Mike Mamula bust
Hugh Douglas boom
Simeon Rice boom
Cedric Jones bust
Regan Upshaw boom
Duane Clemons boom
Marcus Jones boom
Reinald Williams bust
Kenard Lang bust
Kenny Holmes boom
Renaldo Wynn bust
Joe Harris bust
Trevor Pryce boom
Andre Wadsworth bust
Grant Wistrom boom
Jason Peter bust
Jevon Kearse boom
Ebenezer Ekuban boom
Lamar king bust
Patrick Kerney boom
Courtney Brown bust
Shaun Ellis boom
John Abraham boom
Erik Flowers bust
Justin Smith boom
Richard Seymour boom
Andre Carter boom
Jamal Reynolds bust
julius Peppers boom
Dwight Freeney boom
Bryan Thomas bust
Charles Grant boom

26 of 78 busts or 33% busts

OT
Luis Sharpe boom
Chris Henton bust
Jimbo Covert boom
Dean Steinkuhler boom
Jon Alt boom
Brian Blados boom
Lokmas Brown boom
Ken Ruettgers boom
Kevin Allen bust
Jim Lachey boom
Wil Wolford boom
John Clay bust
Harris Barton boom
Bruce Armstrong boom
Paul Gruber boom
Tony Mandarich bust
David Williams boom
Tom Ricketts bust
Richmond Webb boom
Charles McRae bust
Antone Davis boom
Stan Thomas bust
Pat Harlow boom
Bob Whitfield boom
Ray Roberts boom
Leon Searcy boom
Jon Fina boom
Willie Roaf boom
Lincoln Kennedy boom
Brad Hopkins boom
Ernest Dye bust
Bernard Williams bust
Wayne Gandy boom
Aaron Taylor bust
Todd Steussie boom
Tony Boselli boom
Korey Stringer boom sad one though
Billy Milner bust
Blake Brokermeyer bust
Trazelle Jenkins bust
Jonathon Ogden boom
Willie Anderson boom
John Michels bust
Jamain Stephens bust
Andre Johnson bust
Orlando Pace boom
Walter Jones boom
Tarik Glenn boom
Kyle Turley boom
Tra Thomas boom
Victor Riley boom
John Tait boom
Luke Petitgout boom
LJ Shelton boom he started for 7 years and only missed 8 games
Aaron Gibson bust
Chris Samuels boom
Stockar McDougal bust
Leonard Davis boom
Kenyatta Walker bust
Jeff Backus boom
Mike Williams bust
Bryant McKinnie bust
Levi Jones boom
Marc Columbo boom

21 of 64 busts or 33% busts

Now to me this is huge. I realize that some like Meacham, some like Jarrett and some like Ginn but at the end of the day I wouldnt even want Johnson. There is a 50% chance that any WR drafted in the first round will crap out on you and with the first day WRs being 10 deep i would rather take my chances later on.

If you disagree with some of my assessments thats fine but overall they should remain about the same.

 

[masomenos]

There's some really good information there.

 

[Stash]

I certainly appreciate the effort put into this. A lot of good work there.

I'm wondering if along the way you discovered any types of players who had lower 'bust' percentages who could be termed as safer picks?

 

[The Realist]

How do you arrive at the fact that those are the 3 biggest bust positions?

Did you check them vs all others?

RB, QB, DT is pretty hight too it seems.

 

[jimmy40]

OTs and DEs don't have to worry about having a bust or boom QB throwing them the ball.

 

[Bryan8284]

Very good read

No reason why we can't get a Steve Smith or Jason Hill or Paul Williams in the 3rd or so and be okay right now.

In the first get an Aaron Ross.

 

[tomson75]

OTs and DEs don't have to worry about having a bust or boom QB throwing them the ball.

Good point.

I'm not for or against drafting WR in the first, but it does need to be addressed...whether it be form within with Hurd or Austin, free agency (doubtful), or the draft. My question is...what is the percentage of "busts" at WR in rounds 2-7?

Meh, I'd rather see a pass rusher anyway.

...or a Bradie James replacement.

 

[CrazyCowboy]

Wow.....that is a big bunch of bust's

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

OTs and DEs don't have to worry about having a bust or boom QB throwing them the ball.

Tell Andre Johnson that. Tell JJ Stokes, Mike Sherrard and Koren Robinson that. And there were a few guys like Metcalf who hung on as a ST ace

 

[Alexander]

OTs and DEs don't have to worry about having a bust or boom QB throwing them the ball.

I agree. That is huge.

The main reason there is a higher percentage of busts at WR is that many times decision makers base their opinions off bad information.

How many times do you see a speed burner who runs well get overdrafted? Meanwhile, a successful albeit slower receiver who was productive in school get bypassed.

 

[tomson75]

Tell Andre Johnson that. Tell JJ Stokes, Mike Sherrard and Koren Robinson that. And there were a few guys like Metcalf who hung on as a ST ace

No offense, but arguing exceptions to the rule doesn't help the premise of this thread one bit.

The draft is what it is, a crap shoot.

 

[theogt]

Your analysis is woefully incomplete and subject to a very high amount of subjectivity.

For example, you lable a WR as a "bust" who averaged 50 catches per season over a 10 year career, yet you label an OT a "boom" who essentially had a 6 year career and didn't start much.

Assuming that your "boom" and "bust" labels were correct (and they most certainly are not), the analysis is incomplete. To determine whether it is wise to draft a WR you would have to analyze the contributions of the "boom" WRs vs. the contributions of the "boom" OTs (or any other position). For example, say you valued, on a scale of 1 to 10, the contributions of all the "boom" WRs as 8 on average, but the "boom" OTs had a contribution level of 5 on average. If WRs had a 50% bust rate, and OTs had a 33% bust rate, the expected return on a WR would be a 4 contribution and the expected return of a lineman would be a 3 contribution. Thus, it would be a better investment to draft a WR. Of course, all of these numbers are very subjective, so you would have to do a great deal of mathematical justification for you analysis.

In the end, your post isn't very informative at all.

I suggest you study the term "expected return" rather than just the term "risk."

 

[dargonking999]

Hmh, your logic actaully comes together this time, and i fully agree with you. There is just way to many WR's that you can draft after round 1 that can be better than the ones you take in the first round. And i'd rather use that pick on a position that IMO is a impact position. WR is one of the least needed positions on offense. (FB being the least) WR's come a dime a dozen, and as the eagles have proved to us over the years you dont always need a stand out WR to do something.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

No offense, but arguing exceptions to the rule doesn't help the premise of this thread one bit.

The draft is what it is, a crap shoot.

Osrry but I will take my work over you anecdotes anyday. Those were four guys just off the top of my head that give the idea that its the QBs fault the middle finger. Then you have places like Detroit and and Arizona where you have multiple first rounders and the results are very much so mixed.

This is not a small sample size this 25 years of drafts that we are talking about. The difference is HUGE.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Your analysis is woefully incomplete and subject to a very high amount of subjectivity.

For example, you lable a WR as a "bust" who averaged 50 catches per season over a 10 year career, yet you label an OT a "boom" who essentially had a 6 year career and didn't start much.

Assuming that your "boom" and "bust" labels were correct (and they most certainly are not), the analysis is incomplete. To determine whether it is wise to draft a WR you would have to analyze the contributions of the "boom" WRs vs. the contributions of the "boom" OTs (or any other position). For example, say you valued, on a scale of 1 to 10, the contributions of all the "boom" WRs as 8 on average, but the "boom" OTs had a contribution level of 5 on average. If WRs had a 50% bust rate, and OTs had a 33% bust rate, the expected return on a WR would be a 4 contribution and the expected return of a lineman would be a 3 contribution. Thus, it would be a better investment to draft a WR. Of course, all of these numbers are very subjective, so you would have to do a great deal of mathematical justification for you analysis.

In the end, your post isn't very informative at all.

I suggest you study the term "expected return" rather than just the term "risk."

It was actually prety difficult to get labeled a bust. i made it that way intentionally. And like i said some may be wrong i did this at 1AM but I have a feeling that my mistakes work both ways and it would work out in the end anyway.

BTW to be a bust IMO you would have to be a 3 or less on a scale of 1 to 10. BTW perhaps you should study the word subjective.

 

[jimmy40]

Tell Andre Johnson that. Tell JJ Stokes, Mike Sherrard and Koren Robinson that. And there were a few guys like Metcalf who hung on as a ST ace

Tell Andre Johnson what? Not to worry if Shaub is a boom or bust?

 

[tomson75]

There is just way to many WR's that you can draft after round 1 that can be better than the ones you take in the first round.

That can be said with most positions.

And i'd rather use that pick on a position that IMO is a impact position. WR is one of the least needed positions on offense. (FB being the least)

Maybe in our offense this year. What about next year? Should we settle for more late rounders or URFAs? We have plenty of those.

WR's come a dime a dozen, and as the eagles have proved to us over the years you dont always need a stand out WR to do something.

Funny, I would give my left *** for an Alstott on the cowboys. I'd say he has a pretty big impact. Those days of first and goal turning into fourth and goal would be memories.

I still dont' want a WR in the first though.

 

[Hostile]

Fuzzy, not looking to pick a fight, but by your definitions here after round 1 even more WRs end up as busts. So should we NEVER, ever draft WRs? Should we restrict ourselves to Free Agent castoffs?

We have two of them who are both past 30. Drafting a WR in the first round is about building towards the future. Given who we have on the roster there is less chance of a bust because this draft choice will not be expected to come in right away and be a #1 or #2 guy. It will be about getting up to NFL speed.

I think given the depth of the WR crop of this draft it is the perfect time to draft one. Every position has busts, WR and TE rely not only on their own skills to succeed but without a QB to get them the ball they are handcuffed. We have a good QB to get them the ball.

I respectfully disagree with your analysis.

 

[theogt]

It was actually prety difficult to get labeled a bust. i made it that way intentionally. And like i said some may be wrong i did this at 1AM but I have a feeling that my mistakes work both ways and it would work out in the end anyway.

BTW to be a bust IMO you would have to be a 3 or less on a scale of 1 to 10. BTW perhaps you should study the word subjective.

I'm glad that you "have a feeling" your analysis is correct, but in the real world, that doesn't amount to much.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Tell Andre Johnson what? Not to worry if Shaub is a boom or bust?

Look at that offense as a whole. No running game and shoddy QB play for his entire tenure yet he puts up great numbers every year. Being obtuse is nice and all but this is just sad.