Yakuza Rich: Analyzing the Enemy - Commanders Coaching Staff

[Yakuza Rich]

Analyzing the Enemy – Commanders Coaches
By Yakuza Rich
http://yakuzarich.blogspot.com


The Skins have “overhauled” their coaching staff with Gregg Williams and Al Saunders are now out and Greg Blache and Jim Zorn are in. Let’s statistically dissect Blache and Zorn.

Blache was a Defensive Coordinator for five years with the Bears (1999-2003) and has been the D-Line coach for the Commanders for 4 seasons (2004-2007). I’ll be using Footballoutsiders.com’s DVOA as a means of ranking the defenses and offenses:

AVG. PASS DEFENSE DVOA RANKING IN CHICAGO: 18th.

AVG. RUN DEFENSE DVOA RANKING IN CHICAGO: 10.6th

AVG. RUN DEFENSE DVOA RANKING IN WASHINGTON: 10th

AVG. RUN DEFENSE DVOA COMBINED: 10.3

AVG. SACKS/SEASON IN CHICAGO: 34.6

AVG SACKS/SEASON IN WASHINGTON: 31

AVG SACKS/SEASON COMBINED: 33

The best the Bears ever finished in pass defense DVOA was 11th in 2001. The best they ever finished in run defense DVOA was 4th in 1999. However, the Commanders finished 1st in run defense DVOA in 2004 when Blache was head coach.

The highest amount of sacks in a season for a Blache squad was 48 by the Bears in 2001. However, they finished with 18 sacks in 2003 and had 19 sacks in 2006.

I think it’s safe to say that the Skins are likely to be a stop the run first type of defense. They are not likely to be a high QB pressure team.


Jim Zorn was the QB coach of the Seahawks from 2001 – 2007. Here’s a look at the major QB stats during that timeframe for the Seahawks:

AVERAGE COMPLETION PERCENTAGE: 59.9%:

AVERAGE YARDS PER PASS ATTEMPT: 7.0

AVERAGE QB RATING: 84.4

It’s pretty obvious that the Seahawks ran a West Coast offense given their somewhat low YPA, but a solid QB rating. Seattle’s highest YPA year came in 2005, where the YPA was still only 7.7 yards per pass attempt.

The rumors are down to the Commanders going after either Steve Spagnuolo, Jim Fassel or Steve Mariucci. I tend to think that it will be Fassel because Spagnuolo runs a different defensive scheme and may not want to have a Defensive Coordinator who runs a different scheme. Fassel and Mariucci are both West Coast offense head coaches, but the Mariucci rumor is speculation by Washington Post writer Jason LaCanaflora.

Anyway, lets look at their respective DVOA’s over the years. We’ll look at Fassel first:

AVERAGE PASS OFFENSE RANKING: 17TH

AVERAGE RUN OFFENSE RANKING: 21.3


Hmmm. So how did Fassel’s teams have success despite mediocre offenses:

AVERAGE PASS DEFENSE RANKING: 14.3

AVERAGE RUN DEFENSE RANKING: 11.6


Here’s a look at Mariucci’s numbers:

AVERAGE PASS OFFENSE RANKING (IN SF): 7.5

AVERAGE RUN OFFENSE RANKING (IN SF): 6.7

AVERAGE PASS OFFENSE RANKING (IN DETROIT): 25TH

AVERAGE RUN OFFENSE RANKING (IN DETROIT): 23.3

AVERAGE PASS OFFENSE RANKING (COMBINED): 13.3

AVERAGE RUN OFFENSE RANKING (COMBINED): 12.2



For Cowboys fans sake, Fassel would be the hire we would want. Mariucci has shown that he can coach offense if he has talent. I wonder how a team like the Commanders that seems to have the talent on offense but doesn’t produce as well would do under Mariucci. Getting sacks for the defense will be tough since this is a team that doesn’t generate a lot of sacks already and key players like Cornelius Griffin, Marcus Washington, and Shawn Springs are all north of thirty years old. Also, losing Sean Taylor probably won’t help things.

I wouldn’t want to underestimate either Fassel or Mariucci if they were hired, but neither have this Cowboys fan shaking in his boots.




YAKUZA

 

[Burgundy&Gold]

DA PLANE!! DA PLANE!! MORE COACHES!!

http://img.***BLOCKED***/albums/v238/dandrewhall/daplane.jpg

 

[apickmans]

ive already accepted the fact the its gonna be Fassel. I hold the smallest of hope that its not. Rather have Mooch or Meeks.

We're supposed to interview Steve Spags on Monday. I bet the Giants pull him aside and throw him a bunch of money promising to take over after Coughlin retires. I dont think the Skins have an interview lined up with McDaniels yet, or if they even plan on doing it.

 

[Burgundy&Gold]

Fassel is not that bad. Damage is already done IMO. I hate Snyder.

 

[firehawk350]

I like your analysis, but I don't put too much stock into these made-up statistics (DVOA). There's a reason only one website uses them. And I noticed you included only sacks, which isn't very telling to me. For example, the year with the greatest amount of sacks (2001) had the fewest INTs (9).

Also, personnel must be taken into account. For example, Briggs was drafted in 03, Urlacher in 2000. Harris and Tank didn't come on until 04 and Tillman was in 03. With the exception of Harris, a lot of great players were drafted and brought on board, setting up success for the long term, but he just didn't stick around long enough for these players to mature all the way (with the exception of Urlacher).

I don't think it's fair to blame/credit Greg for the defensive showings in Washington, he was just the line coach and it was comical as to the neglect the line got. He was given the short end of the stick in FA and the draft (the earliest pick was a 5th rounder spent on Anthony Mongomery). Still, Montgomery and Golston both have looked good in their time starting and Griffin blew up under the tutelage of Blanche. Carter, after a year of adjustment, posted his second 10+ sack season and even Phillip Daniels has averaged 5 sacks a season under him (or there. Not bad considering the attention the unit was given (or lack thereof) under Gregg "the line is fine" Williams.

Either way, I think in interest of full disclosure, here's my findings.

For total defense when serving the Bears as the DC, Blanche started off weak in 99 (ranked 29th overall) and was pretty bad throughout all the categories I tracked (sacks, INTs, pass and rush defenses) with the exception of fumbles, where he finished third. Though, as time went on, with the exception of 2002, his unit got consistently better, though not in leaps and bounds. His unit also got better in the rush defense and remained relatively consistent in forcing fumbles.

His pass defense was another story though, it started off horrendous (29th) and got better the next year (17th). From there, it dropped back to 29th in 01, though that was his high point in sacks and went consistently down from there.

As far as the skins, other than 06, which was a horrible year as Griffin battled injuries and he was forced to start a rookie 6th rounder in Golston, his line did very well consistently throughout his tenure. As a unit, they were very effective against the run, leading the league in TFLs in 04 and posting a 2nd overall rush defense. In 05, that dropped to 13th but rose back up in 07 to 4th. His unit posted 20 sacks in 04, 16 sacks in 05, 13 in 06 and 21.5 in 07, including 4 from undrafted DE Chris Wilson. Not too bad considering not a single free agent dollar or draft pick was used to improve the unit.

I wish I could tell you what we should expect from a Blanche coached defense. Who knows what he learned under Williams. Has his time coaching the DL taught him the importance of solid defensive linemen or did Williams make him think this unit can be ignored in the 4-3? What if Meeks is brought in to be HC? He's not a world beater and his time at DC tells me he's not a scheme genius (could he have learned something under Williams though?) but his handling of a very understaffed Skins DL tells me he's going to eck the most out of his players.

 

[TellerMorrow34]

I've long wondered if the Skins would have a legit shot at getting Steve Spag. or not. I can't see him leaving New York, where he could potentially succeed Tom in the future (We all know how quickly the NY media turns on people up there) for a Skins team that is just a mess.

 

[apickmans]

I've long wondered if the Skins would have a legit shot at getting Steve Spag. or not. I can't see him leaving New York, where he could potentially succeed Tom in the future (We all know how quickly the NY media turns on people up there) for a Skins team that is just a mess.

im thinking the same thing.

 

[dthahn]

All these fancy statistics are nice, but the bottom line is the Commanders have to START ALL OVER with new offensive and defensive schemes to learn.

This means that Jason Campbell will need at least another year and a half to learn a new system just as he was showing some confidence in the old one.

By the time, he and the rest of the team learn these new systems, the Commanders window will be closed and they will have start the rebuilding process.

For Commanders fans, it means more mediocrity and frustration.

For Cowboys fans, it means more good times as the Cowboys roll over the Skins for the next several years.

I love me some Dan Snyder!

 

[firehawk350]

And, here comes Zorn...

What you think of Zorn should coincide with what you think about Matt Hasselbeck (6th rounder from Boston College). Brought from Green Bay in 2001 in a trade (the first year Zorn took over), Hasselbeck has been a consistent threat at QB, despite less than stellar receivers.

In 01, in his first year starting, Hasselbeck experienced what a lot of young QBs do, that being rough patches and some corresponding lows in the statistical categories (70.9 QB rating, 54% completion rate, 6.6 YPC, 6 TDs to 7 INTs). However, Hasselbeck wouldn't see those kinds of numbers again until 06 in which he strained his MCL in Week 7 (after leading the team to a 4-1 start) and later broke the fingers in his throwing hand. Excluding those years, he is pretty consistently over 3000 yards, above 85 in QB rating and 60+% completion rate.

What to expect, I have no idea. It's clear that Holmgren is going to influence the way Zorn thinks, so obviously we're looking at a WCO. Holmgren is also very flexible, going with the strong legs in Alexander in 05 and relying on Hasselbeck in 07. I expect Zorn to bring this flexibility over to the Skins, going with what's working instead of Saunders philosophy sticking with the system. How he utilizes Cooley and Portis remains to be seen, as Portis is a different style runner than Alexander and he's never had a player like Cooley. This will be his first test I believe, getting those two involved in the offense.

I'm not going to speculate on a head coach, this randomness is changing every day or two it seems...

 

[firehawk350]

All these fancy statistics are nice, but the bottom line is the Commanders have to START ALL OVER with new offensive and defensive schemes to learn.

This means that Jason Campbell will need at least another year and a half to learn a new system just as he was showing some confidence in the old one.

By the time, he and the rest of the team learn these new systems, the Commanders window will be closed and they will have start the rebuilding process.

For Commanders fans, it means more mediocrity and frustration.

For Cowboys fans, it means more good times as the Cowboys roll over the Skins for the next several years.

I love me some Dan Snyder!

Didn't the Cowboys have to learn a new offensive and defensive system this year??? How did that work out? I don't know how complex Zorn's offense is going to be (or whoever is brought in) but I think it's safe to say that it's going to be easier than 700-page Al Saunders'.

 

[Yakuza Rich]

Didn't the Cowboys have to learn a new offensive and defensive system this year??? How did that work out? I don't know how complex Zorn's offense is going to be (or whoever is brought in) but I think it's safe to say that it's going to be easier than 700-page Al Saunders'.

Dallas' offense was just tweaked a bit. With Witten running more deep routes, a little more motioning, getting Owens on more crossing routes and in the slot. Defensively they changed quite a bit. But most players come from a 1 gap scheme in there career over a 2 gap and generally it's harder to change offenses than defenses.

If Zorn goes to the WCO like they have in Seattle, it'll be quite a bit of a change. Moss and Campbell have played in that type of offense before and the O-Line can zone block, but there's still a lot of change. In fact, most WCO coaches say that it's about a 5 year learning curve.

I noted sacks because they have such a high correlation coefficient to winning, even higher than INT's. I used FO.com's DVOA rankings because using yards as a ranking measure is pretty ridiculous and the DVOA factors in so many aspects of the game, including strength of schedule.

Unless Spagnulo is named HC, then I see the Skins defense as a stop the run first defense under Blache.




YAKUZA

 

[Bob Sacamano]

regarding Blanche, expect the Skins to finally invest a 1st round pick on a top pass-rusher

 

[firehawk350]

regarding Blanche, expect the Skins to finally invest a 1st round pick on a top pass-rusher

It depends if we pick up a true pass rushing threat in FA. Suggs (is he still available), Justin Smith and Jared Allen are all names to look at.

 

[firehawk350]

Dallas' offense was just tweaked a bit. With Witten running more deep routes, a little more motioning, getting Owens on more crossing routes and in the slot. Defensively they changed quite a bit. But most players come from a 1 gap scheme in there career over a 2 gap and generally it's harder to change offenses than defenses.

If Zorn goes to the WCO like they have in Seattle, it'll be quite a bit of a change. Moss and Campbell have played in that type of offense before and the O-Line can zone block, but there's still a lot of change. In fact, most WCO coaches say that it's about a 5 year learning curve.

I noted sacks because they have such a high correlation coefficient to winning, even higher than INT's. I used FO.com's DVOA rankings because using yards as a ranking measure is pretty ridiculous and the DVOA factors in so many aspects of the game, including strength of schedule.

Unless Spagnulo is named HC, then I see the Skins defense as a stop the run first defense under Blache.




YAKUZA

I didn't know Campbell played in a WCO. How did he do? It seems his slow release is ill-suited to such an offense.

 

[apickmans]

regarding Blanche, expect the Skins to finally invest a 1st round pick on a top pass-rusher

I cant find it right now but theres some Blatche quote where he states how important CBs are in his system and that a lot of people might disagree with him about that. I was hoping to hear him say that about DEs and the passrush they can create to make our DBs look better. Oh well.

 

[TellerMorrow34]

Jared Allen is going to be Franchised Tagged by KC. They'd be stupid to let that guy get away.

Suggs and Smith are alright players.


However aren't the Skins is their usual, yearly, finanical debacle within the salary cap? Last topic I saw on it the Skins are WAY over the cap and are going to have to do a lot of cutting and a lot of restructuring just to get under the cap.

With that in mind...no, Suggs and Smith are not something to look at cause they're going to be out of the Skins price range.

 

[hank2k]

I wouldn’t want to underestimate either Fassel or Mariucci if they were hired, but neither have this Cowboys fan shaking in his boots.




YAKUZA[/QUOTE]


Just to play devil's advocate, if you looked at QB play in Miami when Garrett was there, nobody would have been shaking in their boots either. Of course Jason Campbell trying to run the WCO will likely have us all shaking in our boots from laughter.:laugh2:

 

[Skinsmaniac]

Of course Jason Campbell trying to run the WCO will likely have us all shaking in our boots from laughter.:laugh2:

He ran the WCO pretty well in Auburn wouldn't you say?:laugh2:

 

[Billy Bullocks]

I think Marriucci wouldn't be a bad hire. I mean Detroit hasn't been great since he left either, or before he got their. They still don't have a franchise QB, and to my knowledge, Marriucci never got the opportunity to draft one.

He was a good coach in SF, and it always surprised me that they got rid of him, especially since they had no plan to replace him.

I think getting rid of Greg Williams was idiotic. The defense was the only unit that ever showed up. I don't think it's really his fault that he never really had the option to draft anybody to add to the team. I mean Snyder traded the best CB in the game at the time for a RB...he went out and got guys like Brunell, Brandon Lloyd and Antwaan Randle El, etc. Granted Williams got a pair of Safeties high in the draft.

 

[skinsscalper]

It depends if we pick up a true pass rushing threat in FA. Suggs (is he still available), Justin Smith and Jared Allen are all names to look at.

Jared Allen is going to be Franchised Tagged by KC. They'd be stupid to let that guy get away.

Suggs and Smith are alright players.


However aren't the Skins is their usual, yearly, finanical debacle within the salary cap? Last topic I saw on it the Skins are WAY over the cap and are going to have to do a lot of cutting and a lot of restructuring just to get under the cap.

With that in mind...no, Suggs and Smith are not something to look at cause they're going to be out of the Skins price range.

I'm no cap expert, and the Skins have certainly manipulated the cap before, but they've never really had to bite the bullet hard by pushing money forward, and forward and forward. Eventually, you would think, the team mentality of "taking one for the team" only to come up short and re-build, and re-build, and re-build is goingto wear on some of these players and they're going to run into situations where they aren't going to budge anymore.

IIRC the Skins are roughly 21 million OVER the projected cap this year. That's a lot of dough to squeeze off the books and get far enough under just to sign your draft picks let alone be ANY type of player in the FA game. That being said, it's pretty safe to say that Suggs, Smith, or Allen won't even sniff the DC area. Skins fans have boasted for years about how savvy their front office is at manipulating the cap and never truly paying for it. Well, I think it's safe to say, they are clearly at the point of "having to pay" and quite possibly the worst time. The Skins have serious deficiencies at WR and D-line. Portis seems to be wearing down a bit and despite a strong late season surge, have serious depth issues team-wide (O-Line in particular). Snyder damned depth by bringing in players with names and completely ignored a second line of defense in virtually every category of the team. Now, you have a team that is re-building (to argue that point would be ridiculous) and extremely thin at experienced lower tier players that make that transition a little smoother (when you have to release a high priced vet to survive the salary cap implications).

I don't feel sorry for the Skins or their fans. But for anyone to look at the situation as a whole (considering the coaching/scheme changes, the cap situation, and the lack of team-wide depth) and have a modicum of positivity (other than the fact that MAYBE this will pan out in a couple of seasons) for the 2008 season is homerism beyond silliness. It's insanity. As a Cowboys fan, you couldn't love it more