In the homer thread i said 38-0... but realistically heres how I see it.
The Patriots offensive unit is better than the Cowboys, but the Cowboys offense is no laughing matter either. The Cowboys are ranked #1 in the NFL in yards, and Patriots are #2. I will give the benefit of doubt to the Patriots as they have historically proven themselves as the better, more consistent, team.
Defensively, as a unit, the Cowboys are light years better than the Patriots. Statistically, the Patriots allow the #2 least yards per game, but that is a product of the offenses they have faced and how they performed. The Cowboys defense is loaded with play makers and can be considered a top 5 defense. The NFL ranks the Cowboys as #8 but that is in regards to the yards allowed.
The Patriots have only punted 11 times, but in those punts they are ranked #30 in Net punting, 31.6, the Cowboys are 18th in Net punting, 36.9. AVG punting is a different story the Cowboys are #3 and the Patriots are #32, poor punting coverage explains this huge difference for the Cowboys. On Kick returns the Patriots are superior (the cowboys have allowed 2 kick returns for a TD).
Offense: Patriots
Defense: Cowboys
Special Teams: Even
Home: Cowboys
Combined the teams are very close. The Cowboys will win the game if they execute better than last week on offense. Defensively they match up well against the patriots, but they cannot afford to be put in bad positions due to turnovers. On special teams, they Cowboys can't make mistakes like they have been in the past 2 weeks, a moderate performance by the special teams unit is suffice.
Rational Pick: Cowboys 23 - Patriots 20
Re-evaluated Homer Pick: Cowboys 34 - Patriots 17
Most of the media likes to consider this a a blowout game in the patriots favor, but this is a very close game possibly decided by one mistake/field goal.
The homer in me would pick the Cowboys in that thread...)
