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2013 NFL Draft Preliminary Thoughts

Discussion in 'Draft Zone' started by Hostile, Aug 21, 2012.

  1. Hostile

    Hostile Peace Zone Supporter

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    Some will say this is way too premature. I say that's just silly. I'm a draftnik, you can't make me not think about the Draft at any time of the year.

    First of all let's talk Free Agency for 2012

    Here are our UFAs.

    • Victor Butler, OLB (Would they consider him a starter next year and bring him back?)
    • Kenyon Coleman, DE (doubt he makes this team)
    • Rudy Carpenter, QB (doubt he makes this team)
    • Derrick Dockery, OG (50/50 he makes this team)
    • Mike Jenkins, CB (we all figure he is gone)
    • Felix Jones, RB (I figure he is gone)
    • L.P. Ladouceur, LS (May lost out to Huglett this year)
    • Daniel Loper (doubt he makes this team)
    • Stephen McGee, QB (Hope he doesn't make this team.)
    • Kevin Ogletree, WR (playing for a new contract)
    • John Phillips, TE (50/50 they let him go after this year)
    • Anthony Spencer, OLB (We already know he is not getting a long term deal at this point.)
    • C.J. Wilson, CB (doubt he makes this team)
    That's 9 players who might make this team in 2012. Of those 9 you can pretty much bet 7 of the players will not be back in 2013.

    Here are the RFAs.

    • Teddy Williams, CB (gone)
    • Javarris Williams, RB (longshot for PS)
    • Mana Silva (gone)
    • Akwasi Owusu Ansah, DB (gone)
    • Danny McCray, S (could stick)
    • Orie Lemon, ILB (Could stick)
    • Clifton Geathers, DE (50/50 he makes this team)
    • Phil Costa, C (Makes 2012 team, would they bring him back?)
    • Barry Church, S (Made the team and will get a new deal.)
    • Rob Calloway, NT (50/50 between he and Brent for the backup NT role)
    • Mario Butler, CB (made the team IMO, could be brought back)
    • Baraka Atkins, OLB (gone)
    That makes 7 of this list who might make this team. I think at best 3 of them will be brought back in 2013.

    That means barring injuries or retirements, we will shuffle about 12 new faces into the deck in 2013.

    Because of this I put the 2013 draft needs as follows.

    1. Center
    2. OLB
    3. OG
    4. RB
    5. WR
    6. TE

    If Doug Free continues to struggle in any way I will move RT way up my list.

    It is my belief that we would probably target OLB in the first round over OL. I expect the Longhorns crowd to start thinking Alex Okafor, and I honestly do not mind this idea if Spencer is not wrapped up and Butler leaves as well. I kind of hope Adrian Hamilton is a diamond in the rough, but I don't mind finding a bookend in the draft either. My early pet cat is Brandon Jenkins of Florida State.

    This will not deter me in any way from pimping Barrett Jones of Alabama as our answer in 2013's Draft.

    I think it is a weak RB class, so I wouldn't look before round 4, and I would try to find a guy who can be a KR/PR too. Perhaps a Geovani Bernard from UNC.

    WR may not be an issue we focus on if Ogletree or the young guns (Beasley, Coale, Harris, and Holmes) come through.

    OL is. I would prefer we take Ol with 2 of our first 3 picks and think if we don't it better mean Livings and Bernadeau were all everything for us in 2012.

    Would Dallas look for a QB for the future so soon after acquiring Orton as insurance? I think that depends but I can see us drafting one around the 4th to groom as McGee tried to. My early pet there might be Casey Pachall of TCU. We shall see.

    Rip it apart. Add your 2 cents. Let's see what we all think.
  2. The Realist

    The Realist Active Member

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    I agree with 99% of what you said.

    I would have no issue if we went OL 1 and 2 depending on where we pick (without reaching).

    Love Barrett Jones as a LG. I would take a look at the USC C in 2. Also like Warford 330+ RG at Kentucky.

    Wouldn't touch the TCU QB due to drug issues.
  3. Manwiththeplan

    Manwiththeplan Well-Known Member

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    OLB seems like it will have several first round caliber players

    -Sam Montgomery, DE, LSU (R-JR)
    Will Likely come out. I'm a bit leary of the LSU duo due to the talent on the D-line at LSU, butwith a big year I think Montgomery could go top 10.
    -Barkevious Mingo, DE, LSU (R-JR)
    Little bit less high on him. For starters, I always subtract an inch off college players, so I am skeptical as to how much size Mingo can add to a 6'3 frame. If he can't, add size w/o losing speed, then he's destined to be a situational rusher at best.
    -Brandon Jenkins, DE, FSU (SR)
    Not nearly as big on him as Hos and SDogo. There was a drop off in production from his Sophomore to his Junior year, and I think that trend will continue. However if he bounces back, he'll easily go top 15 or top 10.
    -Bjonern Werner, DE, FSU (JR)
    Was productive as a sophomore, needs to prove last year wasn't a fluke. Doubt he comes out unless he has a moster year.
    -Jackson Jeffcoat, DE, Texas (JR)
    Would love to add him opposite of Ware. Not realistic at all unless we're a pretty bad team, but if we found a way, I'd be estatic. Unlike Werner, I think Jeffcoat comes out if he improves at all off of last season.
    -Alex Okefor, DE, Texas (SR)
    Would be a nice fall back option, if Spencer leaves and all the big time pass rushers are gone. I don't see him being too much more productive than Spencer, but likely more consistent at the very least.
    -Sean Porter, OLB, Texas A&M (SR)
    Had a great year playing Von Miller's old spot. Isn't the athlete that Von MIller is, but he has a knack for finding QBs. Playing LB is a plus considering we want an "all-around" player replacing Spencer.
    -Jarvis Jones, OLB, Georgia (R-JR)
    Very intriguing prospect. Has 3-4 expierence which is a plus, and had more sacks and more tfl last year than anyone on this list. If he has a similar season, he very well could be the first pass rusher taken.
  4. The Realist

    The Realist Active Member

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    I see us bringing back Felix and Spencer unless the price gets outrageous.
  5. junk

    junk I've got moxie

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    I think that Spencer's asking price is already more than they want to pay or they would have already locked him up long term. Stephen already alluded to this in one interview.

    Felix.....eh.....I'm fine if the price is right. Apparently, he hasn't been that impressive this camp. Wouldn't mind just moving on at this point.

    It is shaping up to be a great draft for pass rushers. I'd like to add one.
  6. visionary

    visionary Well-Known Member

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    great thoughts Hos

    i agree with your priorities list with the addition of the fact that we may need NT becasue Rat is getting older (depending on the play of Brent/callaway)

    i am a big believer in being strong up the middle and i fear that we are not, we have undersized NT with smallish ILBs which is not a good fit in the 3-4

    so my list would go something like this:

    OC
    NT
    OLB
    OG

    i do think that with jenkins leaving, we will draft a CB early
  7. RS12

    RS12 Well-Known Member

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    Nothing to rip apart. I doubt they draft an OL in the first even though it would not bother me to see anybody to the right of Tyron Smith replaced. If the team goes 8-8 they'll draft a pass rushing OLB. If they go 6-10 you can best believe they will be looking QB (and I'm a Romo fan). Too many franchise QB's this draft and they arent always there when you need them, also the trend now is draft a QB and throw em out there, not as much money involved. If they make the playoffs and do anything all bets are off. Wild card is Free saw him look shaky footwork and hand wise so far. If a stud OT is there, its a possibility.
  8. kirkjrk

    kirkjrk Active Member

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    Looks good Hos.

    My Thoughts: Depending on what we pick up in FA

    1. Center- Barrett Jones(a must) ,Ala., Travis Frederick, Wisc.,Khalid Holmes,USC

    2.NT/DT--Jonathan Jenkins,Geo., Jesse Williams,Ala., Brandon Williams,Missouri St.

    3.??? OL(G-RT),S,OLB,CB,TE
  9. Hostile

    Hostile Peace Zone Supporter

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    Who are you and why are you on Visionary's account?

    ;)

    Thanks.
  10. The Realist

    The Realist Active Member

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    I'm just going by our track record of signing our own FA's.

    If we were to go OLB in 1 and let Spencer walk at least we get an extra 3 in 2014.

    Might not be a bad way to go cuz Spencer/Felix are definitely underperformers. Send a message to the rest of em.
  11. xwalker

    xwalker Well-Known Member

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    I have a feeling that the Cowboys will be most interested in drafting an OLB. I would love to get a blue-chip Center, but I don't know if Garrett believes in drafting certain positions in the 1st, including interior OL.

    I just get the feeling that Garrett is an old school by-the-book type, that believes that the following are the top positions in football:

    QB
    Passrusher (could be OLB or DLineman)
    LT
    CB
    WR

    and RB to a lesser extent.
  12. visionary

    visionary Well-Known Member

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    i usually agree with your opinions except when it comes to jerry

    i dont like to delude myself ;)
  13. Hostile

    Hostile Peace Zone Supporter

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    Then don't follow media fantasies about how NFL teams are run.

    :D
  14. CATCH17

    CATCH17 1st Round Pick

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    If Spencer has another "meh" year then going cheap on Butler and using our top pick on a OLB seems like the smarter move.


    Interior OL is high. I'm liking our Safety situation but we still need to see it play out.

    Will Miles be cut? He's owed a lot of money?

    Offensive tackle could easily become a priority.

    I doubt Felix gets resigned.

    Will Doug Free stay on the decline?



    It's too early to tell right now but if I had to guess what position we target in Round 1 it will be OLB.
  15. Manwiththeplan

    Manwiththeplan Well-Known Member

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    Done for the season with some foot injury. Most unfortunate for him, but due to being a senior, I think he still declares for the draft, but will be a second day pick at best.

    I know it was Murray State, but he had a 4 sack, 5 TFL game in week 1 (do they count sacks as TFL?), so he's off to a great start.
  16. Cowboy Brian

    Cowboy Brian Romo 2 Austin Zone Supporter

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    If we lose Spencer and with Wares age OLB becomes our #1 need. Not good.

    I think we are best off keeping Spencer.
  17. Cowboy Brian

    Cowboy Brian Romo 2 Austin Zone Supporter

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    It' about 7m next year isn't it? Miles is more than worth 7m as a WR. We loaded his contract in the front during the "capless" year, he will stay for his entire contract.
  18. cowboyzz11

    cowboyzz11 Benched

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    I would really like to get B Jones but just see Jerry going that high after another O line

    but would like a real C

    Khaled Holmes, C, USC
    Height: 6-4. Weight: 305.
    1 or 2

    I think we go OLB in round one

    Jackson Jeffcoat*, DE, Texas
    Height: 6-5. Weight: 245.

    Brandon Jenkins, DE/OLB, Florida State
    Height: 6-3. Weight: 260.


    at QB pick

    Alex Carder, QB, Western Michigan
    Height: 6-2. Weight: 224.
    Projected 40 Time: 4.61.
    Projected Round (2013): 4-6.

    8/16/12: Carder has been a prolific passer for Western Michigan and was a 2011 Second-Team All-MAC performer as a junior. He lit up Purdue in his bowl game, completing 31-of-57 passes for 439 yards and three touchdowns.

    Carder played well against Illinois and Michigan as well. Against Connecticut, he completed 37-of-51 passes for 479 yards with five touchdowns and zero interceptions, carrying the Broncos to a road win over the Huskies.

    Carder completed 66 percent of his passes for 3,873 yards with 31 touchdowns and 14 interceptions in 2011. He has a nice arm and is a good decision-maker. His senior season will be more difficult without star wide receiver Jordan White.

    Carder completed 63 percent of his throws in 2010 for 3,334 yards with 30 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. He has been extremely efficient for Western Michigan.
  19. RS12

    RS12 Well-Known Member

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    Lis franc foot injury done for the year.
  20. Eskimo

    Eskimo Well-Known Member

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    He costs too much and produces too little. Ratliff is entering the same boat.

    In the end you have 3 resources to build your roster: draft, free agency and salary cap. You also have to be constantly revitalizing your roster with young players and you have to avoid paying too much salary to older players whose skill and ability tends to rapidly decline once they hit around 30. If you put too much salary investments in such players you will usually have to pay a price somewhere down the line. The only ones who won't are those who can convert older players into high draft picks before they decline - the Patriots and the Eagles. Can you think of an example where the Cowboys did this? The only one that comes to mind is Herschel Walker and we know how that one turned out.

    Unless he starts producing 10 sack seasons we can't pay him $9M/yr. He is also getting close to 30 and will soon start to decline. So you may get 2-3 good years out of him before he declines. The problem is Ware will be declining along a similar time curve as they were acquired only two drafts apart from one another. When Ware starts producing only 6-9 sacks per year Spencer's 4-6 sacks per year isn't going to cut it. At that point you'll have wished a higher pick was spent on a high sack player who could be entering his prime as Ware begins to fade. We need to see this path coming to plan for it now by going for Ware's heir apparent now. Ware is entering his 8th season, he has a neck problem that seems to act up every year during the season but this year it started in TC.

    Look I wish I could also stick my head in the sand and pretend Ware will get us 15-20 sacks per year for the next 7 years but that is very unlikely to happen based on past history. When he loses just a little burst he could be done as an elite pass rusher. We have to expect this to happen fairly soon and we want his replacement to be on the roster already so that the defense doesn't tank and we don't have to reach in the draft (see Shante Carver, Kavika Pitman, Ebenezer Ekuban).

    I agree with Hos 100%. It is time to find Ware a new complementary pass rusher. Giving Spencer a $10M/yr contract is going to come back to bite us in 2 years when he is a JAG, Ware is in decline and there is no one to pick up the pass rush slack.

    Now it's just a matter of finding that player who has the requisite size, strength, burst, quickness and pass rushing skill. I would be okay with trading up for this player if need be.

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