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...and now Ukraine is chiming in...

Discussion in 'Political Zone' started by ThaBigP, Aug 10, 2008.

  1. ThaBigP

    ThaBigP New Member

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    http://www.reuters.com/article/asiaCrisis/idUSLA480092

    Would Russia take Ukrainian ports by force if their Black Sea fleet is barred from Kiev? Let's also remember there's a region called Crimea there, that Russia things belongs to them. It's a pocket completely within the borders of the Ukrain. Uglier, uglier....
  2. ThaBigP

    ThaBigP New Member

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    I also read, albeit in a post and not in any official capacity, that Russia would consider Ukraines refusal to allow the Russian Black Fleet to operate out of Ukranian bases for the Georgian operation to be an act of war.......
  3. iceberg

    iceberg detoxed Zone Supporter

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    let us keep our war alive or it's war?

    and bush sounds silly at times.... i wonder what the average russian things of this.
  4. ThaBigP

    ThaBigP New Member

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    Two things about Russian opinion on this (and bear in mind it's anecdotal from my reading of internet blogs and posts - Russians are swarming the internet with their opinions):

    1) The state-run Russian news agencies alternately blame Georgia for genocide, the US and NATO for starting this, and unwarrented meddling by "Zionist" elements in the form of Israeli support of Georgia over the last few years.

    2) The Russian posts almost to a person echo the Russian media's stance. They want the world to butt out, and appear ready to defy any attempt to stop this. Some are going so far as calling for war against the Ukraine, Lithuania, Estonia, Latvia, Poland, and if need be the entire EU and US.
  5. ThaBigP

    ThaBigP New Member

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    This is not a case like Saddam, or even Ahmadinajad in Iran - there's little political dissent that can be found in the Russian posts (but again, take them for what they're worth. One guy, "Vlad" in Siberia, seemed to think Russias response was rediculous, but his lone voice stuck out amid a chorus of sabre rattling).

    This is more like pre-WWII Germany, where Hitler enjoyed massive German support. After all, he pulled Germany from the ashes of WWI and the Versaille treaty to bring Germany back to international and economic prominence. Much as Putin has done for Russia.
  6. ThaBigP

    ThaBigP New Member

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    Interesting article from 2006:
    ....
    Trading democracy for gas
    The news gets worse. Not only is Russia acting like a regional bully, but it has also become an authoritarian state whose elites carefully cultivate hyper-nationalist sentiments within the population. Putin has progressively dismantled the creaky democratic institutions he inherited from Boris Yeltsin, silenced the media, imposed severe limitations on non-governmental organisations and civil society, and extended state control over significant segments of the Russian economy.
    The 4 January gas deal revealed that a consortium of Putin, Gazprom, and RosUkrEnergo had successfully imposed its terms on Ukraine. In effect, the deal showed that Russia is ruled by a dictator in cahoots with “big gas” and the oligarchs, and that Russian democracy is dead. That most Russians support Putin’s policies is, alas, only more cause for alarm.
    Also on openDemocracy about Ukraine, Russia, and foreign policy:
    Alena V Ledeneva, “How Russia really works” (January 2002)
    Sergei Markov & Robert V Daniels, “America’s Russian question” (October 2004)
    Ivan Krastev, “Ukraine and Russia: a fatal attraction”
    (December 2004)
    Katynka Barysch & Charles grant, “Ukraine should not be part of a ‘great game’” (December 2004)
    Ivan Krastev, “Russia post-orange empire” (October 2005)
    Mary Dejevsky, “Russia’s NGO law” (December 2005)
    The gas dispute has thus confronted Europe with some awkward realities. Just as the orange revolution of late 2004 had demonstrated that Ukraine possessed democratic, pro-western aspirations, the gas argument of early 2006 showed that Ukraine is a real country that is here to stay.
    The gas dispute also demonstrated that Ukraine’s problems – and especially its problems with Russia – are also Europe’s problems. Since Ukraine will not go away, Europe has no choice but to involve itself more actively in the resolution of Ukraine’s domestic and especially its foreign policy challenges. As many European analysts have argued, the European Union must finally recognise that it needs to develop a long-term policy toward Ukraine that is consistent with European values and Ukrainian aspirations.
    That need not mean extending an invitation to Ukraine to join the European Union, but it does mean telling the Ukrainians – clearly and in no uncertain terms – that, if and when they meet all the requirements for membership, they will be welcome to apply. Such a signal imposes no costs whatsoever on the EU, while telling the Ukrainian public that continued democratic progress could, at some undefined point in the very distant future, lead to integration into Europe.
    No less important, the gas feud showed that Europe can no longer pretend that Russia is a benign state or – as former German chancellor, Gerhard Schrőder, said of Putin at the height of the orange revolution – that the Russian president is an “impeccable democrat”. Russia’s behaviour during the dispute effectively demonstrated that Russian elites have no interest in integrating into Europe, playing by European rules, and sharing European values.
    No modern European country would, even if contractually justified, threaten a neighbour with depriving it of a vital natural resource. Europeans will now have to determine just how they can balance their own commitment to human rights, the rule of law, and democracy with their dependence on Russian gas and their desire to live amicably with Moscow.
    European policy toward Ukraine – a country that the European Union had preferred to ignore until the orange revolution made that impossible – will be the test of Europe’s ability to reconcile these opposing priorities. It should now be clear that Russia is authoritarian at home and hegemonic abroad. It should be equally clear that Ukraine is democratic at home and pro-western abroad. Critics of the United States invasion of Iraq questioned the legitimacy of trading blood for oil. Observers of European policy may wonder about the legitimacy of trading democracy for gas.
  7. ThaBigP

    ThaBigP New Member

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    Four months ago...........

    Ukraine urges Russia to end threats
    Published: April 12, 2008 at 2:03 PMOrder reprints | Print Story | Email to a Friend | Post a Comment Close KIEV, Ukraine, April 12 (UPI) -- The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry said Saturday Russia should "stop the practice of threats" over Ukraine's attempts to join NATO.
    After the chief of Russia's General Staff, army Gen. Yury Baluyevsky, said Russia would likely increase its border security if Ukraine joined the international organization, the Ukrainian ministry said such comments interfered with the country's affairs, RIA Novosti reported.
    "Statements by high-ranking Russian officials are ... anti-Ukrainian... and are direct interference in Ukraine's internal affairs," the Foreign Ministry said.
    The United States has been a staunch supporter of Ukraine and Georgia's bid to join NATO, but on Thursday NATO members postponed an official membership offer to the organization's Membership Action Plan.
    The NATO members said the potential membership offer to Georgia and Ukraine would be revisited in December, the Russian news agency said.
  8. Bizwah

    Bizwah Well-Known Member

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    Anyone ever read Red Storm Rising?

    Good book about Russia starting another WW.
  9. zrinkill

    zrinkill Diamond surrounded by trash

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    I have heard that this has the potential to get out of hand very quickly.
  10. iceberg

    iceberg detoxed Zone Supporter

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    it does. i'm paying a lot of attention to what thabigp says cause i know how much he's reading up on this and how he puts it together w/o bias or agenda but overall.

    it's bad. makes me wanna fill my attic w/bottled water bad. oh, and get more arrows for my 2 compound bows and a lot more 9mm shells.

    i got plenty of blades and leather.
  11. iceberg

    iceberg detoxed Zone Supporter

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    if a war started, and we lost - what would it really cost us? japan is fine after the war. germany better now.

    i'm not saying this to be sarcastic, but what would it cost? other than countless lives and resources cause we've forgotten how ugly this can be?

    would our government fall or would we just surrender the point and let them have georgia and so on?
  12. iceberg

    iceberg detoxed Zone Supporter

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    this doesn't make sense. a given group of people regardless of the topic will have a divide. if everyone is saying "go government" then you have to question it and wonder.
  13. ThaBigP

    ThaBigP New Member

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    Again, I have no high-level contacts or anything of the sort. It's anecdotal evidence I simply am putting together in my mind from news around the globe and informal posts and blogs around the 'net.

    But that being said, most "cult of personality" quasi-dictators enjoy enormous popularity - usually until their adventures lead to their nation's ruin. At least such has been the case in European affairs over the centuries. Napolean. Hitler.

    This transcends the old USSR method of beating the people of Russia into submission. Again, this is more like the rise of Napolean or Hitler.
  14. burmafrd

    burmafrd Well-Known Member

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    Its going to get interesting.


    Old Chinese Curse: May you live in "interesting" times.


    The only good thing is that most of the Russian Military is still second rate at best.
  15. Vintage

    Vintage The Cult of Jib

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    Yep. Their military isn't as strong as ours.

    OTOH, they have over 10,000 nuclear weapons.... and even if they aren't the most accurate things ever....It's pretty safe to say that they could hit any country.

    Not that it will come to that (it won't).... but it is yet another thing that prevents direct confrontation, most likely.
  16. Rackat

    Rackat Active Member

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    There is something to be said for the Cold War in that back then we "knew" there would not be a direct confrontation, but that we would fight through proxy countries. In today's conflicts, it is much more likely that if it did flare up we would be actually going against each other and not fighting via a proxy country.
  17. Vintage

    Vintage The Cult of Jib

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    Good point.

    I guess what I was trying to more or less imply was that... I think the threat of nuclear weapons would prevent a direct confrontation between the US and Russia.

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