Discussion in 'Political Zone' started by Hostile, Mar 4, 2008.
Bury her Barrack. Don't let me down Texas and Ohio.
Vermont should start rolling in at around 6 PM CST. Ohio around 6:30 PM CST. Texas I think will be at around 8 PM CST. Rhode Island? Not entirely sure.
Voting closes at 7pm here in Texas
One in seven Obama voters acknowledged Clinton as more qualified to be commander in chief; fewer than one in 20 Clinton voters said that about Obama.
Evidently, they've not been following the campaign closely, how poorly she's managed her message, her staff, and her finances.
She can't even run an efficient and effective campaign yet people think she can handle the complexities of running a country?
That is interesting and does not bode well for today's results for Obama. I think those numbers were reversed in previous polls in other states.
I want to see Hillary go as much as anyone, but I am expecting a tough night for Obama. The media's sudden turn against her, this Canadian misstep, the "kitchen sink" mud slinging (amplified by the media) have taken a toll.
I see Vermont as Obama's only win. The trick, however, is to determine how many total dels Hillary will pick up. It is possible for Obama to lose three states and win more dels, strange as that seems.
If Obama wins Texas, I will be thrilled. Rhode Island is as much a pipe dream for Obama as Vermont is for Hillary. Ohio's women will rescue Hillary big, big time.
My prediction (add your own):
Ohio: Hillary 54 Obama 46
Texas: Hillary 51 Obama 49
Rhode Island: Hillary 58 Obama 42
Vermont: Obama 65 Hillary 35 (called immediately after the polls close.)
Total delegate gain for Hillary: -2
I may be insuring my emotions on these calls, but this is what my gut says.
Maybe it doesn't say they think she can run a country effectively, but rather she would less ineffective than Obama.
I will say that if the Dems want the White House then the better vote Obama, becuse Clinton isnt going to win agains McCain.
First Word of Exits For Ohio, Texas, Rhode Island, Vermont
This is interesting. One of my sources has gotten two sets of exit poll results. It's unclear whether this is different pollsters or, I suspect, different times of day.
For the first set, Obama is up by 2 percent in Ohio, Hillary is up by 2 percent in Texas, Hillary is up by 3 percent in Rhode Island and Obama is up by a 2 to 1 margin in Vermont.
The second set is similarly close - Hillary up by 2 percent in Ohio, the two Democrats tied in Texas, Obama ahead by 2 percent in Rhode Island and a similar 2 to 1 margin in Vermont.
You'll hear more as I learn more.
Any of the candidates left running would be a step up....
In Williamson County in Texas, Democratic voters outnumbered Republican voters in the early voting tallys.
Anyone who follows early voting or Central Texas politics will grasp what a departure that is.
Considering there isn't a real Republican race at this point and this is the most heated Democratic race in decades, that makes sense, no?
At one level...yes. But it is mirroring the voting trends we've been seeing all over the US. Including back when their were contenders on both sides.
On local commentator mentioned this amusing bit: Republican friends of his who were voting in the Democratic primary gave him different stories. Some were going to vote for Hillary, figuring her the best candidate for a Republican to run against. Others have already accepted a Democratic sweep, and were voting for Obama as the best choice in Dmocratic victory.
Crossover voting (Rep to Dem) was making up roughly 13% of the primary vote in the early voting tallys.
The "election over election" change in voting doesn't really show anything at all in terms of predicting votes cast in the GE. I've looked at all the numbers and there are entirely too many factors involved to make such a simplistic claim.
Doesn't that prove my point re: the meaningless voter turnout numbers? I too personally know a few people that voted in the Dem primary but will not be voting for a Dem in the GE. By the way, polls have shown that McCain pulls more Dems than Barack/Hillary pull Repubs.
I agree. There have been a few ge races won by the candidate from the party with less participation during the primaries. Dukakis was involved in one, IIRC.
If the Republicans did not have a "winner takes all" format, I am sure the numbers would be higher...and Romney would still be in this race. (Funny how I never heard Romney complain about the rules.)
Still, I can't help thinking that Obama would have a great chance of pulling the youth vote back into play during the GE.
i take it everyone is glued to CNN right now?
Not me ..... I am watching Empire Strikes Back.
i hope that's not a bad omen....
I am trying to learn how to force choke a b**** ...... just in case Hillary pulls it out.
I live literally around the block from my voting precinct. There are two ridiculously long lines wrapped around the school with people still arriving. The turnout is the largest I've see since I've lived in the area.