Bad year for 1st rounders??????

Discussion in 'Fan Zone' started by k19, Feb 28, 2006.

  1. k19

    k19 Active Member

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    Is the draft logic starting to shape up?

    By Pat Kirwan Senior Analyst

    Combine times, measurements: 2/28 | 2/27 | 2/26 | 2/25
    INDIANAPOLIS (Feb. 27, 2006) -- The draft is two months away, and lots of things will change along the way, but I did ask a number of club executives and coaches what their impressions of the draft class was at this point in the process. Remember the old adage: "You can only make a first impression once." Well, the Combine is the first impression for many of the 300-plus participants.

    I got three strong opinions from people who sat through countless hours of evaluations, interviews and discussions with their staff members, and there is a pattern of opinion that is worth mentioning and then a plan that should follow -- if the impression of this draft holds water a month from now.

    One GM got the ball rolling for me as I sat in the stands with him during the workouts and said, '"This draft class looks like it will not have more than 15 players with a real first-round grade." I ran that concept by another team's personnel director and his response wasn't much different, but it had a plan behind it. He said, "I would love to have four picks between 33 and 60." The third guy I spoke with was a head coach whose team has a ways to go, and he felt there were only a handful of difference makers and wants very much to move down in the draft, or as he said, "way down and get some extra guys to build up the core of this team." I proceeded to watch the workouts and interview players all weekend with an eye on the concept of second-round players who could be great bargains.

    As I look at the draft class from this perspective, I start to get excited about the talent pool that should be available in the second round. With all the guys working out as well as they did in Indianapolis, and when you consider the cost difference between a first- and second-round pick, you quickly realize that the money difference may be a lot greater than the talent difference. Before I get into the potential second-round players, let me just show the difference in the money for a first-round guy over a second-round selection based on the 2004 draft class.

    So as you can see, if a smart club executive walks out of the Combine with the gut instinct that after the top 15 picks the next 45 players are all about the same, it makes a lot of sense to have four picks between 33 and 64 (which is the second round) rather than one pick in the first round and one in the second. What these clubs might also be thinking about is getting up into that range of picks by moving their third and fourth to grab a second. Still, now is not the time to worry about draft day strategy, but rather to study the talent pool and arrive at a decision about where the real value is going to be.

    For the moment, let's eliminate the obvious players that have little to no chance of ever dropping out of the first round. One or two might slip, but for the most part, this is the core of the first round:

    QB -- Matt Leinart, Vince Young, Jay Cutler
    RB -- Reggie Bush, DeAngelo Williams, LenDale White, Laurence Maroney
    WR -- Santonio Holmes
    TE -- Vernon Davis, Marcedes Lewis
    OT -- D'Brickashaw Ferguson, Winston Justice, Eric Winston
    OG -- Max Jean Gilles
    C -- Nick Mangold
    DE -- Mario Williams, Tamba Hali, Mathais Kiwanuka
    DT -- Haloti Ngata, Broderick Bunkley, Rod Wright
    LB -- AJ Hawk, Chad Greenway, Bobby Carpenter, Demeco Ryans
    S -- Michael Huff
    CB -- Jimmy Williams, Ty Hill, Alan Zemaitas

    With these 29 names eliminated from the list for the time being, I went through the rest of the top draft picks, watched some of them workout and talked with coaches and scouts about the differences between the first-round names and who was left to select. Three days in Indianapolis led me to believe the NFL decision-makers may be on the right track about this draft class. The more athletes who run sub 4.4 times, bench press weight through the roof and impress in their position drill,s the more I like the band of players working their way into 30-60.

    As for quarterbacks, look at Brodie Croyle in this range. Running backs are led by Joseph Addai who tore up the 40-yard dash and was versatile at the Senior Bowl. There is excellent value in the wide receivers in the second round, and it is probably safe to think at least three of these four will be sitting there waiting for a team: Sinorice Moss, Chad Jackson (4.32 40), Maurice Stovall, or Derek Hagan. The tight end population is intriguing with Leonard Pope and Anthony Fasano. Want a guard? The second round should have Davin Joseph and Deuce Lutui to pick from, and they can play right away in the NFL. The tackle list will still have Marcus McNeil (6-foot-7 and a 5.08 40) along with Jonathan Scott, Ryan O'Callaghan and Andrew Whitworth, who really helped himself in Indianapolis. At center, Greg Eslinger is an excellent selection.

    Brodie Croyle will get strong consideration at the end of the first round.
    On defense, start up front with Gabe Watson and OShinowo Babutindi at tackle. The defensive ends are a decent looking group also with Kamerion Wimbly, Darryl Trapp, Victor Adeyanju and Ray Edwards. The coaches have told me the linebacker list in the second round is their favorite group with probable players Ernie Sims, Thomas Howard, D'Quell Jackson and Abdul Hodge who could all be first-round guys -- but some of them have to be taken here. The corners with real good grades are Kelly Jennings, Ashton Youboty, Dee Webb, Jonathan Joseph, and the safeties could be Ko Simpson, Darnell Bing and Donte Whitner.

    Finally, I hope all of these second-round probables go in the first round for their sake, but the GMs, coaches and scouts usually sort the draft out pretty quickly and get parameters to go by as they plan for their teams' drafts.
  2. bbgun

    bbgun Benched

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    No way is Rod Wright a first rounder. Hell, he might be there in the 3rd.
  3. cobra

    cobra Salty Bastard

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    But how many people on this board keep saying "Dallas is going to trade down and pick up another 2nd or a 1st next year" or some other nonsense.

    At #18 the Cowboys won't be trading down because there is nobody that anyone would want to trade up for!!! The value is in the 2nd round, not at #18.
  4. ComicBookGuy

    ComicBookGuy New Member

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    Or we could find another sucker like Buffalo who wants to trade up for somebody they could've easily gotten later in the draft. I'm sure somebody is fool enough to do something like that again.
  5. Thick 'N Hearty

    Thick 'N Hearty Active Member

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    Somebody will do it. Someone always does. Remember when we traded up to get Quincy? Granted, it wasn't the first round, but it illustrates my point. Someone will always make the bonehead decision to trade up when they don't have to.
  6. Clove

    Clove Shrinkage

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    Not to mention the players that slip.
  7. SkinsFan26

    SkinsFan26 New Member

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    In my opinion, the Cowboys would be wise to trade down and pick up an extra 2nd. But following the same logic, I don't think that teams will want to trade up in this weak draft.

    The Skins trading out of the first round this year is looking like a good move by Gibbs and Cerrato. I don't see many 1st round-quality players being on the board at pick 22.
  8. ravidubey

    ravidubey Active Member

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    Frankly I'd be disappointed if Dallas doesn't grab Marcus McNeill at this spot.

    Dallas drafted five front-seven players last year, and unless a special front-seven player falls to 18 the Cowboys need to inject youth and dominating talent into their OL. McNeill has the physical size and strength that can't be coached.
  9. Billy Bullocks

    Billy Bullocks Active Member

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    I sort of agree.

    Although, it will be seen if it was worth what they gave up to get Campbell.
    Should have retained Smoot, and could have gotten a stud DE at #9.
  10. ghst187

    ghst187 Well-Known Member

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    you're joking right? That might've been the dumbest move I've seen Gibbs make since he's been back. He traded this year's first round pick for a QB that will never be any good as a starter. Also, on the contrary this year is a great year to have high picks, not top 10, but just more high picks 15-60 in general. To give one of those up for a QB who probably won't ever amount to anything....bad move.
    Some say that there are more than 31 guys in this draft with first round want all the picks you can get in a draft like this.

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