Discussion in 'Political Zone' started by theogt, Aug 20, 2009.
This forum needs more good news.
Yeah. Sure. More numbers that might mean something and might mean NOTHING.
Before the recession started I remember people saying that since this index did not show a 4 month trend downward that it really was not a recession. At least not officially. Yet we ended up in a recession any way and this index eventually showed what many were already seeing in everyday life. While it is good news that this index is showing an upward trend it isn't the end of the story. I hope things do improve and we all see that improvement when we are out shopping or working or all the other indicators that we face daily.
You're confusing this index with something else. This index (which is intended to be a leading indicator) actually showed five straight months of decline from October 2007 to February 2008.
I would guess you're meaning to refer to the quarterly GDP decline of two consecutive quarters, which is typically considered to be the definition of a "technical" recession (though it really isn't).
An alternative intreptration that paints the opposite picture:
Any attempt to compare stock index trading charts to those of 80 years ago is pretty laughable.
This market is nothing like the market 10 years ago, much less 80 years ago. Electronic trading, institutional investors, computer programs, finacial innovation in general makes this comparison like putting up a new Ferrari next to a Model T. Other than they're both cars, there's no much comparison whatsoever.
Computer programs can get instant updates worldwide and crunch information faster than the human mind could ever dream of doing. Just 20 years ago, you'd have to wait DAYS or even WEEKS, not fractions of a second, to get information, process it, and then trade on it.
Yep, I got confused and was thinking of the quarterly GDP. Thanks for clearing that up.
I still believe that although these indicators whether is it this one you shared or the quarterly GDP are just simple tools. They don't tell the whole story. It is a good positive sign, but I don't think it is a clear indication that the recession is ending. It is too early to tell. I like it, but I don't like it enough to trust it at this point.
There's very little question that the recession ended in either June, July, or August. The technical declaration may not happen for many more months.
Heh, I didn't mean to imply that comparing the two was at all feasible. As an economist, I'm well aware of the ridiculousness of using past events to predict future events without providing context.
It's more a warning sign to not view a market bounce as a market recovery.
Understood. But the blog entry is not referencing a "market" recovery.
My company posted record Earnings per share this past quarter, and we are now ramping up for more growth for the first time in 2 years. I don't know if that means the recession is "over" or not, but I imagine a lot of firms are experiencing similar rebounds if large firms are anticipating having more cash around to sign service contracts with mine.
Dare I say it?!?!?!?!?! Stimulus bill????:leave:
Yet we are still building the building previously planed for but we have a hiring freeze so much for filling them with jobs. That and we are cutting budgets way down this year on spending.
Shopping went down last month so I am far from excited about anything; I hope it turns soon.
You can say it. The question would be, can you prove it?
NO he cant, the chunk of the stimulus package doesnt kick in til late 2010.
Just in time for elections. Uncanny I tell you.
I'll be the first to admit I can't prove it. If you can admit you can't prove it wasn't.
Forgetting the fact that most of the Stimulus is actually Entitlement money, not enough of the stimulus has actually reached the economy. Heck, most of it hasn't even been spent. How then, could it be the Stimulus?
How do you know exactly how much needs to reach the economy, before the economy turns around? If you know for sure, you'd be the only one on the planet.
Furthermore, you and I can both agree the economy is fickle. Every time Warren Greenspan spoke, the economy would go up or down depending on what kind of mood he was in. If people FEEL like the stimulus is working, then its working. Because they won't hold on to their money as tightly. If people FEEL like its not working, it won't work, because people won't spend.
The big difference is you and me. I can admit that I don't know if its working or not. You won't even admit that.
I didn't make the claim, you did. It's not really up to me to prove your right. Having said that, if you want to believe that the Stimulus is the reason, knock yourself out.
The question that I would have is this. If it only took approximatly 20% of the total 787 Billion, why did we have to borrow so much and why are they wanting to borrow more?