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Dem Strategists See Landslide in Making

Discussion in 'Political Zone' started by Sasquatch, Oct 9, 2008.

  1. Sasquatch

    Sasquatch Lost in the Woods

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    Dem strategists see landslide in the making

    David Paul KuhnThu Oct 9, 5:32 AM ET

    Three weeks of historic economic upheaval has done more than just tilt a handful of once-reliably Republican states in Barack Obama’s direction. Democratic strategists are now optimistic that the ongoing crisis could lead to a landslide Obama victory.

    Four large states McCain once seemed well-positioned to win — Virginia, North Carolina, Ohio and Florida — have in recent weeks shifted toward Obama. If Obama were to win those four states — a scenario that would represent a remarkable turn of events — he would likely surpass 350 electoral votes.

    Under almost any feasible scenario, McCain cannot win the presidency if he loses any of those four states. And if Obama actually captured all four states, it would almost certainly signal a strong electoral tide that would likely sweep the Southwestern swing states — Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada — not to mention battlegrounds from New Hampshire to Iowa to Missouri.

    One month ago Democratic strategist Paul Maslin, who closely tracks the electoral map, thought that perhaps Democrats would win by a couple percentage points. At best, he thought Obama might earn a slight majority as Democrats earned in 1976, the last time the party’s presidential nominee cracked the 50 percent barrier.

    “Now it’s a whole different world,” Maslin said. “The economy is way beyond 1992. In 1980, it was Iran hostage crisis and the economy. I’ve never seen an issue take this kind of prominence.”

    Gallup finds that 69 percent of Americans believe the economy is the most important issue facing the nation. The second most cited issue, the war in Iraq, is named by only 11 percent of voters.

    Bill Clinton’s former pollster Doug Schoen calls this the “economic tsunami.”

    And it’s this tsunami that has altered the electoral map in a way that Obama himself could not.

    “The Obama campaign did a lot of important foundation work to expand the Democratic map. And I give them credit for that,” Maslin said. “But the real expansion of the map is coming from an outside event, namely the economy, and not the tactics of the Obama campaign.

    “Obama has not changed the map,” Schoen said. The map has changed because, in light of the economic turmoil, “McCain has become an almost unacceptable alternative” to President Bush.

    According to Gallup, only one in four Americans have a positive view of the president, the lowest rating of Bush’s presidency. That is only one point above Richard Nixon’s floor, 24 percent — which he registered when disgrace forced the first presidential resignation — and just three points higher than the lowest public approval ever, which was notched by Harry Truman in 1952 during the Korean War.

    Only 9 percent of Americans are “satisfied” with the direction of the United States, the lowest level since the question was first asked by the Gallup, in the late 1970s.



    Nearly six in ten Americans believe that the United States could be on the verge of entering an economic spiral similar to the Great Depression, according to a CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll conducted over the weekend.

    “These events are conspiring against McCain,” said Tony Fabrizio, the pollster for 1996 Republican nominee Bob Dole. “The only thing that we can hope is that these circumstances change in terms of being off the front page.

    “We are playing defense in places we shouldn’t,” he continued, speaking of the electoral map. “It will take something ground-shaking, earth-shaking,” to reorient the map to where it was even one month ago.

    It was only a month ago that McCain seemed poised to overcome the public’s poor view of the Republican Party, having literally lifted the GOP’s prospects with his own and largely escaped the political deadweight of President Bush.

    That changed on Sept. 15, when the stock market tumbled 505 points and McCain observed that “the fundamentals of our economy are strong” before pivoting to use the language of an “economic crisis.”

    “McCain could have changed the direction of the river. He could have opposed the bailout. Made clear it was a massive bailout loaded with pork. And he was not party to the Bush-Obama plan,” Schoen said.

    “Barring a terrorist attack,” said Maslin, “in the face of what’s happened to the United States economy, the world economy, in the last two weeks, how does this trend reverse itself?”

    Multiple surveys in the past two weeks, like the CNN/ORC poll, have shown Obama with his highest level of support in the general election.

    Until Sept. 15, Obama had only reached 50 percent support in the Gallup tracking poll once, at the peak of his Democratic convention bounce. Since Sept. 15, Obama has hit the 50 percent mark or higher eight times, including in the past five days.

    On Tuesday, for the first time in Gallup tracking, Obama surpassed the 50 percent threshold and now leads McCain 52 percent to 41 percent, the largest margin of the campaign.

    That same tracking shows that in the past 12 days, Obama’s support has stabilized between 48 percent and 52 percent while McCain’s has stabilized between 41 percent and 44 percent, outside the bounds of the fleeting fluctuations that gave Obama his last 9 point lead following his international trip in late July.

    Many veteran GOP and Democratic pollsters who have been skeptical of Obama’s effort to win red states like North Carolina now believe the economic turmoil has put them well within reach.

    “Here, events have made the economy dramatically the issue. More people are concerned about the economy now than even in 1992,” said Mark Penn, who has served as both Hillary Rodham Clinton’s and Bill Clinton’s pollster. “What we are seeing is more and more voters who are saying they are voting on the economy because I don’t have any confidence from McCain and George Bush that they can handle the economy.”

    Obama is seen by double-digit margins in multiple polls as the more capable economic steward. Briefly, following the GOP convention, McCain had drawn about even on the question.

    “There is the complete utter loss of faith in GOP politics,” argued Jim Jordan, a Democratic strategist. “This is chickens coming home to roost in a way that was almost unimaginable a year ago.”

    Yahoo!/Politico
  2. BrAinPaiNt

    BrAinPaiNt Brotherhood of the Beard Staff Member

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    Sometimes the arrogant fall hard and wind up being the most shocked.

    All this talk about it is already over or possibly winning huge...is not good and is arrogant IMO.

    The Obama campaign needs to stick to working hard and not get too relaxed or full of themselves over the poll numbers or they are going to have a rude awakening.

    This thing is not over and McCain camp could still win it even if their current attack methods don't help as much as they think.
  3. theogt

    theogt Surrealist Zone Supporter

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    I don't think it's arrogance. I think it's realistic. You look at the numbers and they're very bad for McCain. And I'm far from a "Democratic strategist" so it's not me being arrogant.
  4. JBond

    JBond Well-Known Member

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    Are these the same Dems that believed Al Gore, who was up by 11 at this point in the race, would win by a landslide?

    Obama is dirty and many are seening it for the first time. This thing is far from over.
  5. Angus

    Angus Active Member

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    I think there could be a landslide, but I'm not sure who gets buried under it.

    As BP says, the chickens haven't hatched yet.

    :)
  6. BrAinPaiNt

    BrAinPaiNt Brotherhood of the Beard Staff Member

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    The arrogance does not always pertain to the candidates, the campaign and such.

    Some of it falls to the backers you see in the press or even some members on here...and not just for Obama.

    However let me say this, and perhaps it is a crappy analogy but I'm going with it anyways.

    How many times have we seen threads by posters on the board, not in the political zone, saying that we are going to kill a specific team in the upcoming game?

    By all logic, stats and those predicting we should just kill a team and win.

    Yet we go out and for whatever reason the game is either very close or we wind up losing.

    So the analogy is kind of like saying...that's why they play the game. Nobody wins the game until the final whistle blows.

    That's all I am saying. Anything can happen between now and election day/night.
  7. theogt

    theogt Surrealist Zone Supporter

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    Bush led in all of the major polls in mid-October.
  8. zrinkill

    zrinkill Diamond surrounded by trash

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    They are probably right ...... but they saw that in 2004 too ....

    Remember Sassy?
  9. theogt

    theogt Surrealist Zone Supporter

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    The problem with the football analogy is that you can't gauge that like you can polling and the political process. You can look at state by state polling and say that historically you don't see major swings in this final month, unless something big happens.
  10. BrAinPaiNt

    BrAinPaiNt Brotherhood of the Beard Staff Member

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    He has been told already.
  11. Angus

    Angus Active Member

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    Good analogy.

    :)
  12. BrAinPaiNt

    BrAinPaiNt Brotherhood of the Beard Staff Member

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    However you can say....The game is not over until the final whistle blows and it works no matter how you slice it.

    Or you can say...It's not over until Oprah Sings or something along those lines.:D
  13. Vintage

    Vintage The Cult of Jib

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    I thought it was going to be close too.

    Its looking like a landside Obama win.

    Though... they have to be worried about it somewhat....because of some of what they are doing.

    Dunno what to think about that.
  14. ConcordCowboy

    ConcordCowboy Mr. Buckeye

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    I could give a rats arse if Obama wins by one vote.

    I don't understand all this landslide talk...unless they're trying to psych people out on the McCain side so they figure hey why vote for him if he's going to lose anyway.

    Paging Cajun!

    :D
  15. theogt

    theogt Surrealist Zone Supporter

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    Right. I'd say this is more akin to the analogy of being up by 17 with 5 minutes left in the 4th quarter. I don't think Obama = Sage Rosenfels, though.
  16. Sasquatch

    Sasquatch Lost in the Woods

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    It's an article. I agree with BP that it's far from over. Political fortunes can shift rapidly. But one of Obama's great virtues is his steadiness through good times and bad.
  17. BrAinPaiNt

    BrAinPaiNt Brotherhood of the Beard Staff Member

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    For the end result that is a good comparison as they thought they were going to win and it fits my part of the analogy of it not being over until the final whistle blows.

    But we can also go with what theogt is saying and make the argument that Bush was in the lead going in....and Kerry's and his campaign were nowhere as good as Obama (charisma wise) or his Campaign (the way they run it).

    I made a comment in some thread the other day that it almost seems like the campaigns have switched.

    By that I mean for the longest time it seemed the campaigns for the dems were just terrible. Just eratic and crazy. While the Republicans were flat out wizards out it.

    It seems to have flipped because by and large I think the Obama camp has done a far superior job compared to the McCain camp.

    I honestly think McCain does not like his campaign guys way of doing things and probably fights with them over things.
  18. ConcordCowboy

    ConcordCowboy Mr. Buckeye

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    And yet keeps repeating it in the hope that one of these days he'll actually be right.
  19. Sasquatch

    Sasquatch Lost in the Woods

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    I thought this was a very good observation. Weren't the Republicans more flush with cash in previous presidential elections as well? I can't recall.
  20. REDVOLUTION

    REDVOLUTION Return to Dominance

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    LOL.... reminds me of right before the Cowboys vs Skins game... we know how that turned out.

    All signs point to this being an Obama landslide. People just want a DEM in there... that is clear....

    What is not clear is? How many more people come out to vote to alter it one way or another.




    It just may be time for the Repubs to be out of White House.
    It just may be time for their to be a African American to be Pres of U.S.

    Like someone else said.... we may need to this to happen to realize that we need(by next election) someone who is qualified to run this country and has experience.

    Clinton won - wasnt qualified
    Bush Jr won - wasnt qualified
    Obama - isnt qualified
    McCain - isnt qualified


    I dont think Obama, once in, can really affect our current position in the economy one way or another.

    We are fooling ourselves to think that the Pres is in control of so much.

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