Draftniks Opinions Sought

Discussion in 'Draft Zone' started by Hostile, May 28, 2006.

  1. Hostile

    Hostile The Duke

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    Like a lot of you, I am a Draft junkie. I enjoy calculating the Draft order during the season and thinking about who might be there. I really enjoy reading the bios and profiles of the Draftees.

    I've always enjoyed the Mock Drafts that writers like Gosselin, and others put out. This last year while attending the Draft for the first time, but hopefully not the last, something struck me like nothing ever had before. No matter how closely these publications look at team needs and Draft position they cannot get a true feel for how a team is thinking.

    Look at our own drafting of Fasano in the 2nd round. It came out of nowhere, but now that we know why, it's easier to understand. My immediate thought was that they (Jerry & Bill) expected Witten to bolt via Free Agency and I was sick. Now I'm looking forward to seeing how they can open up the 2 TE formation and cause matchup problems.

    I find the draft ideas of some on this forum more interesting to read than some of the publications. I was wondering if any of you feel the same? I would like to find at least one fan of every team in the NFL who was a truly dedicated Draftnik and read what they have to say about their team needs, focus, etc. The reason I say this is because fans are more focused on their team than the media Draft publications.

    For instance Kiper had Jason Allen coming to the Cowboys. Free Safety was a definite need, he needed to slot Allen, but despite Jerry saying we wouldn't go FS on Day 1, he refused to budge. Most of the Draftniks here knew OLB was the target. Why? Easy, we pay attention to every detail about the team that comes out. Nothing came out about a ramped up 2 TE set. If something had leaked, we'd have all probably been on it.

    I'm not trying to diss Kiper, Gosselin or any of the other media outlets who provide us with a service. I'm just saying I enjoyed the input here much more. It got me to wondering if anyone else felt the same.

    I started a very small Draft related website last year that I am trying to decide how to expandit. Fan written bios and profiles interests me.

    I have an idea in mind for this little website but I wanted your input first before I do anything else.
  2. Avery

    Avery The Dog that Saved Charleston

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    I think that this sounds like a great idea, a site where you'd see a good number of people visit.

    I really don't blame Kiper and them too much because it really is a daunting process to recognize the needs of every team, weigh each person in the draft, write articles about them, do interviews, etc. That said, in terms of actually truly being on point with each team, they tend to use the bubble method and slot this player to this team based on need.

    Everyone on this forum screamed OLB with Carpenter and Lawson being the two favorites. From what it sounds like in the war room, this was the case as well. It wasn't a secret, we were just more intuned to it.

    I think the big issue here will be how to designate the draft king of each respective team. With 32 teams and 32 different lives, chances are that people might not be able to always post one specific board since lives change. You can always replace them, but in terms of continuity, sometimes it would be tough to find that one guy who can be a fixture and voice for a team for a few years.

    All in all, it sounds similar to realgm.com though you can shift the focus to target prospects and the draft more than the overall picture.

    I know I'd visit.
  3. cowboyjoe

    cowboyjoe Well-Known Member

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    I too am big on NFL Draft day, I have my own war room, posters, newspapers, etc. I purchase about 3 draft guides too. But best guy to get top 100 players is the Goose.

    I was wanting Manny Lawson or Bobby Carpenter in 1st round. I was shocked by Dallas taking TE in 2nd round, but it makes sense with letting Campbell go. Next, if you add in the OT Colledge that Dallas Cowboys wanted, and he was picked about 2 spots ahead of us.

    Second, I dont think they are going to let Witten go in free agency, they will get that deal done, alone with Bradie James and Terrance Newman too. WE still have about 10.2 million in cap money. Somewhere around there after our draft choices signed.

    Now, you got to take in regards, that they are going to keep about 5-6 million in emergency money, like they do every year. So, that leaves us with about 5 million to spend to resign Witten, Newman and James. James wont cost as much, but Witten and Newman will.

    I was surprised by our 3rd round pick, Hatcher, but if you look at the Goose's top 100, he generally on target. What he does, is call all general managers, scouts, etc, and works his board up from there. And he is pretty close too on the NFL's top 20 picks in 1st round. And Hatcher was in the top 100.

    So, all in all, I think we got another pretty good draft, our defense is fixed down, especially front 7.
    Marcus Spears-Hatcher, Fergeuson, Johnson, Stanley, Canty, Ellis,Ratliff
    Carpenter,Singleton,Akin, James,Ware,Shanle,Fowler, Boiwman
    Newman,RWilliams,Davis,Coleman,Glenn,Henry, Reeves,Beiraut,Pat Watkins

    Now, is this the year, defense jells, not sure, but at end of year, they should start jelling, if not too late.

    And with double tight end set, with TO, and our kicker, look out on offense, only 2 questionable spots are offensive line and running back (Jones injury problems). but I am hopeful that Flozell is determined, and he is entering a new contract next year I think, so he has to show, Peterman at OG with Kosier, Al Johnson by reports is bigger and meaner, which he needs to be, Riveria holding out or playing good for 2 years, and Petti, Fabini (backup for both OT spots), Columbo, so that looks good on paper, but we all know, you have to block.

    Finally, 2 things, our running back situation, now I am really sure that Parcells isnt too pleased with Julious Jones, since reports are the Cowboys are trying or tried to get Marcus Shipp RB from Cardinals. We all know how injury prone Jones has been, and if any indication, his brother was same way with the Cardinals, whom recently went to Chicago, but drafted by Cardinals. He too was injury prone. Secondly, I think we finally got our punt and kickoff return problems solved by Skyler Green, whom we drafted. So, all in all, I feel good, about the upcoming year, but pleaseeeeeeeeeee, no injuries this year, we have had our share the last 2 years.
  4. Yakuza Rich

    Yakuza Rich Well-Known Member

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    Since 2001 I've had the Cowboys first picks of the draft correct except for this year where I had them selecting Lawson (although I predicted they'd choose between Wimbley, Lawson, or Carpenter and be happy with what they got).

    Maybe I'm just pretty intuned with where Dallas is going to go since I can read Jerry Jones and the organization pretty well. That being said, I generally have no clue whom they are going to select in the later rounds.

    I can't imagine anybody having thought Dallas was going to go after a tight end in the second round after they had signed Hannam.

    Kiper usually doesn't have a good idea what a team's needs are. For all of the talk about FS, it still wasn't THAT big of a concern as last season they still finished 2nd in completion % allowed and 9th in QB rating allowed. It's definitely a position they should want to improve, but they clearly had bigger fish to fry than that.

    Not to toot my own horn, but I consider myself a pretty decent mock draft guy. I think one of the things that helps me the most is that I will look at statistical information on the team and that helps me identify some weaknesses on the team that the team sure knows about, but most draft experts and even fans don't notice it.

  5. lspain1

    lspain1 Active Member

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    Rich, you gave us an example of a couple of measures you use to look at FS (and the rest of the secondary, I think). How about giving us some info on an offensive postiion and the stats you use? Like RB, for example.
  6. ghst187

    ghst187 Well-Known Member

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    I agree, it is pretty amazing how the people here (much like myself) nail down what the Cowboys are going to do and need better than the "experts" time and time again.
    I know a number of people here mentioned Fasano before the draft because BP likes TE and Fasano is a good one. Some of us brought up Stanley, Green, and Watkins also...and I think it was pretty obvious to 3/4 of the board that we were going OLB with our first pick this year and about the same 75% narrowed it down to Carpenter vs Lawson.
    Meanwhile, the "experts" had us picking: Wimbley, Jason Allen, Donte Whitner, Jimmy Williams, Winston Justice, Marcus McNeil, Charlie Whitehurst, etc.
    I used to have several subscriptions to pay sites but I dropped them all because I actually get news and rumors FASTER here and I get (and post) better analysis and speculation than those sites were offering. Its funny because if some of those sites actually just posted stuff from here, they would be better and perhaps even worth the price....
    Definitely draft time is the hottest time here for me...I can never get enough of it. Draft day is like Christmas as a kid to me and I LOVE all the speculation and playing all the "what-ifs". Every draft season its like I get addicted to this site and run my number of posts up by about 500.
  7. superpunk

    superpunk Benched

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    Hos, I think this is a fantastic idea. The fans, hardcore ones at least, have the teams needs pegged much more than the experts (although I doubt ANY Bills fan had Whitner slotted at 8...).

    A giants fan and myself put together a "mock offseason" together on a forum that is for all football fans. We sent out excel spreadsheets, there was a salary cap, all sorts of stuff - and we're gonna do it again next year. It was a blast, although we only got participants for about half the teams. We had all sorts of different stuff on there, I'll have to show it to you.
  8. Hostile

    Hostile The Duke

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    Would any of you like a Dallas Cowboys focused Draft Guide? In other words, one that still covered the whole Draft but had a Cowboys focus. Info on all their past drafts, team needs, Free Agent comings and goings, etc.

    Same question for fans of other teams. If there was a Redskins focused Draft Guide would you buy it? Eagles, Giants, Chargers, etc.
  9. Yakuza Rich

    Yakuza Rich Well-Known Member

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    I look at the age and years left in the contracts of certain players as a base starting point. For example, a team may have a good LT, but he might be 31 years old and has one year left in his contract. Good OT's take time to develop, so often times I find that a team will go and draft a LT and either have him ride the pine for his first year or move him to RT or Guard before they switch him over at LT.

    A lot of my stats that I look at will derive from footballoutsiders.com. Basically, I'm looking for anything that stands out as being very poor.
    For example, I had the Bucs either drafting a CB (i.e. Kelly Jennings) or going after an Offensive Tackle.


    Because according to FO.com they finished 20th against #2 WR and 30th against #3 WR. I had seen and heard about Brian Kelly really losing a step at CB and these stats backed up that their other CB's not named Rhonde Barber are doing a poor job.

    As for their O-Line, they gave up 41 sacks and according to FO.com, they finished 25th in adjusted sack ratio.

    They wound up going for a guard instead, which I didn't think was out of the realm of possibility, but usually CB's and OT's go in round one while you can find guards in round two.

  10. MONT17

    MONT17 New Member

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    Cowboys getting a TE was my thinking as well I just wanted the V. DAVIS!!! Parcells is about making his strenghts stronger and thats what I like... I wanted a trade up to get Vernon Davis or draft the freak Pope from Georgia at some point but Fasano will do! I think he is the safe pick over those 2 guys!!!

    I thought if we got Vernon Davis he could line up at FB, TE, WR and whatever other positions they come up with and teams would not be able to play personel with a talent like that! I also felt that DAVIS would have brought a true challenge to T.O. in the weight room and practice field they would have both benefited from... Part of T.O. problem is that he feels he has no equal in the locker room Vernon Davis would have challenged that!

    What I see is Whitten as that move guy on the perimeter and Fasano drawing alot of 3 point stance alignments on the line and the backfield! same idea just different people!

    Now looking back would I rather have Vernon Davis over a Carpenter/Fasano and what ever else it would have cost to get Davis... no way!!!

    but then again its not even June!!!
  11. Big Dakota

    Big Dakota New Member

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    Hey Hostile, nice looking site. If i were you, i'd get going on the 2007 stuff right now. Get a top 100 list up. Maybe a top 3, or top 5 at every possition. Maybe even some profiles of the top 25. Things like that.

    I have been a serious draftnik since 1996 when we selected Mike Sherrard. I don't post here often because i run the Vbookie over at the Cowboys-forum so that keeps me busy and that's where i call home. I spend endless hours on the draft 12 months out of the year. I'm always interested in doing something draft related.
  12. Hostile

    Hostile The Duke

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    I plan to. I have a lot more graphics going upsoon I hope and I've got a database to build. I'm going to have every draft pick any team has ever made right back to Jay Berwanger in 1937 available.
  13. big dog cowboy

    big dog cowboy THE BIG DOG Staff Member

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    :bang2: :bang2: :bang2:
  14. ConcreteBoy

    ConcreteBoy Benched

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    There was little proactive cry to arms to draft a TE in first 2 rounds here or on other Dallas boards. I applaud the forward thinkers and against the grain posters that went there- then......

    It's all easy to call it after the fact.

    I'm pumped going into this season. We are primed.....
  15. MiStar

    MiStar New Member

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    Fans do generally have a better idea of who their team might pick, mainly because they have a more in depth knowledge of the entire roster and know their team's draft tendancies. Many "so called experts" don't have the time or resources to examine things so in depth for every team. They make player rankings, rank team needs, and then use them to create a mock draft.

    In fact it can be very misleading to read such mock drafts because fans will rarely think outside of a certain window of players. For example, many uneducated fans thought that Bobby Carpenter was a second round talent, because many mock drafts had him going in the second round rather than the first, which means nothing in reality. Carpenter was far and away the top SOLB in the draft for the Cowboys defense, yet many publications had him listed as no higher than the 5th best OLB.

    My advice to all the draftnicks out there is to skim over these publications to gather names. Once you've done that, focus on players at positions that will likely be drafted.

    Don't bother with the 230 lb linebackers and even then don't worry very much about the bigger ones. We just spent two first rounders on OLBs and the rest of the LB corps is very young. On the other hand, take a good look at the top 15-20 WRs next year because our starters are in their 30's, and no one else on the roster has shown the ability to replace them yet.

    Once you've narrowed down your list, watch as much college football as possible. Whenever you get a chance, focus in on the players on your list.

    As the season progresses, keep the Cowboys' record in mind. Unless we start losing a lot of games, elite players like Calvin Johnson and Adrien Peterson should recieve less of your attention than guys like Ted Ginn and Kenny Irons.

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