1. Welcome to CowboysZone!  Join us!  Come on!  You know you want to!

Gallup Daily Tracking Poll (includes Debate)

Discussion in 'Political Zone' started by Beast_from_East, Oct 4, 2008.

  1. Beast_from_East

    Beast_from_East Well-Known Member

    14,400 Messages
    2,124 Likes Received
  2. Danny White

    Danny White Winter is Coming

    12,344 Messages
    0 Likes Received
    I'm finding it harder to picture scenarios under which McCain can win this thing.

    The only thing that I can imagine is if the Bradlee effect is real, but my hunch is that it's overstated at least for this election.
  3. irvin88

    irvin88 Active Member

    1,668 Messages
    0 Likes Received
    It is very real.;)
  4. irvin88

    irvin88 Active Member

    1,668 Messages
    0 Likes Received
    You won't see the effect from the debate until Tuesday.

    My hunch is Obama will be up 4.
  5. adamc91115

    adamc91115 New Member

    738 Messages
    0 Likes Received
    We're seeing the first day after the debate. While its not the full effect, it is partial.
  6. irvin88

    irvin88 Active Member

    1,668 Messages
    0 Likes Received
    that is correct. but you really have to wait until Tuesday to get a full picture.
  7. adamc91115

    adamc91115 New Member

    738 Messages
    0 Likes Received
    Agreed. I'm just afraid it might not make much of a difference.

    If there is a difference, I see it coming from people who were already leaning GOP but were concerned about Palin.
  8. irvin88

    irvin88 Active Member

    1,668 Messages
    0 Likes Received
    It will be about 48-44.
  9. adamc91115

    adamc91115 New Member

    738 Messages
    0 Likes Received
    That will be the thing to watch if it does change... Obama is polling at about 50% right now. It will be interesting to see if Obama drops from there and McCain goes up, or if McCain just goes up. That will show who was influenced.
  10. masomenos

    masomenos Less is more

    5,971 Messages
    0 Likes Received
  11. irvin88

    irvin88 Active Member

    1,668 Messages
    0 Likes Received
  12. Heisenberg

    Heisenberg Pow! Pow!

    8,853 Messages
    105 Likes Received
    It won't. Since the Bradley election, scenarios matching that exact one have happened and the effect wasn't there. Polling matched what the actual vote was.
  13. adamc91115

    adamc91115 New Member

    738 Messages
    0 Likes Received
    And it was also posted yesterday about how Obama seems to lose a good 3 points in the actual vote, shown in the primaries.
  14. masomenos

    masomenos Less is more

    5,971 Messages
    0 Likes Received
    Actually, on average, Obama did better than polling suggested he would.

    [IMG]
  15. Heisenberg

    Heisenberg Pow! Pow!

    8,853 Messages
    105 Likes Received
    Actually, the opposite is true. He did better than polling in the primaries by about 3 points.

    Edit - Looks like there's a chart posted proving that.
  16. masomenos

    masomenos Less is more

    5,971 Messages
    0 Likes Received
    Consider your thunder stolen. ;)
  17. Heisenberg

    Heisenberg Pow! Pow!

    8,853 Messages
    105 Likes Received
    [IMG]

    This gives a good idea of the kind of bounce Obama is getting in Pennsylvania.
  18. irvin88

    irvin88 Active Member

    1,668 Messages
    0 Likes Received
    so right now it is tied in PA. I'll take my chances.
  19. adamc91115

    adamc91115 New Member

    738 Messages
    0 Likes Received
    Ok then, so what the hell article was I reading? lmao.

    But anyway, looking at that, it raises another point. Those polls were WAY off on so many states... Was that just because they were primaries? I'm asking because I really didn't pay too much attention to the primaries, specifically the Democratic primary.
  20. Heisenberg

    Heisenberg Pow! Pow!

    8,853 Messages
    105 Likes Received
    There are some bad pollsters. They don't help the averages. The website http://www.fivethirtyeight.com weights the polls depending on their proven accuracy in previous races. I believe they also keep a running list of most accurate pollsters that you can look at.

Share This Page