Great Article on 1st round success rate (Case for DeCastro)

Discussion in 'Draft Zone' started by Galian Beast, Apr 26, 2012.

  1. Idgit

    Idgit That sounds really boring Staff Member

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    Decastro? Most would be surprised if he weren't.
  2. Hagman

    Hagman Put Niland and Green in the ROH

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    John Niland, our first round pick in 1966 (5th overall) made 6 Pro Bowls.
  3. SDCowboy85

    SDCowboy85 Well-Known Member

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    He seems to be rapidly gaining popularity.
  4. cowboysooner

    cowboysooner Well-Known Member

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    You can also add there are 3 spots for interior linemen and a very small pool of 1st round picks (like a 1 per year average). Compare that to pass rusher where there are 6-10 picked in the 1st many years and only 2 spots in the pro bowl. Those odds will never balance.

    A far better measure would be expected second contract dollars since this is a salary cap world with a supposed efficient market.
  5. InmanRoshi

    InmanRoshi Zone Scribe

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    Larry Allen got nominated for a Pro Bowl in 2003 when he was continually benched for bad play. Nate Newton made the Pro Bowl in 1999 as journeyman for the Carolina Panthers and was out of the league a year later. Gurode made the Pro Bowl in 2010, was released and couldn't find a team to offer him a starting position.

    I'll echo what's already been said, Pro Bowls is a pretty poor measuring stick for interior OL and almost entirely based on name recognition.
  6. jterrell

    jterrell Penguinite

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    Case against DeCastro instead of for him.

    You can select a Pro bowl Guard no matter where you draft in r1.
    You don't need a pro bowl guard at pick 14.

    If Dallas takes Fletcher, Barron, Brockers, Ingram, Upshaw this year int he top 22; they can come back next year and draft an OG at say 25 with Pro Bowl ability.

    BUT, if they select DeCastro at 14 good friggin luck at 25 trying to find a solid front 7 guy.
  7. StanleySpadowski

    StanleySpadowski Active Member

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    We're agreeing too much lately. It's starting to scare me a little.
  8. 38 Special

    38 Special Member

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    So Nate Newton went to the pro bowl in 99 because he was a first round interior OL selection?

    There's a pretty big disconnect in your logic. Those players earned their name recognition on the field and went to pro bowls late in their careers that weren't justified. They did not go because they were 1st round picks (the current topic of conversation here).
  9. cowboys2233

    cowboys2233 Well-Known Member

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    Not sure if this is the best way to define success. Roy Williams fit that mold, we picked him, he made the Pro Bowl. But did he really change the fortunes of our all? Of course, our team sucked for most of his career, but still. A guy like Ed Reed, like Polamalu, those are guys who truly had an impact from the safety position.

    With all that said, I'm a BIG fan of drafting offensive and defensive linemen, that's how you truly build a team, from the inside out.
  10. jterrell

    jterrell Penguinite

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    His point is the pro bowl means next to nothing so isn't a good criterion.

    Not hard to follow the logic there.

    My logic is even easier to follow. Not a single guard in the playoffs, on the all-pro or pro bowl rosters was selected as high at 14. NONE.

    It's like a guy signing a 100 million dollar guaranteed contract then marrying a model without signing a pre-nup and feeling like he made a great deal.... #wasteofresources
  11. InmanRoshi

    InmanRoshi Zone Scribe

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    No, the logic is that interior linemen get to Pro Bowls based almost entirely on name recognition. Any player selected with a first round draft pick has a huge leg up in name recognition because he had Kiper and Mayock going on and on about what a great player he is for four months in front of national audiences. A guard or center selected in the first round almost has to completely flame out as a complete bust to not make the Pro Bowl.
  12. Galian Beast

    Galian Beast Well-Known Member

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    Missed on Felix Jones, Anthony Spencer, Bobby Carpenter, Marcus Spears, and technically Bryant and Smith.

    That is 6 misses and 4 hits. For one pro bowl appearance, that is about where it should be. However the rate for multiples still goes pretty low, given that only DeMarcus Ware and Roy Williams went to multiple. And going for Williams is a bit of a stretch...

    I would certainly consider hitting the league average (if we even met that), to be missing a lot. We've been an average team, and we've won one playoff game.
  13. JBond

    JBond Well-Known Member

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    Chiefs are out. Going LB or d-line. They spent a first on a safety two years ago.
  14. burmafrd

    burmafrd Benched

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    so how do they make the pro bowl in the first place if they have no name recognition?


    By the way prior to the fans voting the Pro Bowl was legitimate.

    But facts just do not impress you so why bother?
  15. fanfromvirginia

    fanfromvirginia Inconceivable!

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    DeCastro is much safer. I prefer DeCastro. But this info, everything else equal, makes Barron safe compared to most everybody else in the conversation. I only mean relative to most others, which may not be saying that much given how many question marks there are on pretty much everybody in the conversation at this stage (again, minus DeCastro.)
  16. HoustonFrog

    HoustonFrog Well-Known Member

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    I put this in an earlier thread...this is for a move up

    Food for thought...and I love 14

    Recent safeties drafted in top 10: Eric Berry (5), LaRon Landry (6), Michael Huff (7), Donte Whitner (8), Sean Taylor (5)...2 are on other teams now. No real busts but take of it what you will. Nothing that reads "game changer."
  17. Kangaroo

    Kangaroo Active Member

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    The only miss was Bobby the rest have been at least productive picks on the team and Bryant has two years in and has put up productive numbers for a young wr yet he is a miss and has not even finished his 3rd year :lmao2:.
  18. 38 Special

    38 Special Member

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    I like the logic behind this argument much more, even if I disagree.

    We don't know exactly who will be there, but there's a good chance that the best talent will be a Guard. I never have understood why interior DL are valued higher than interior OL, but I am ok with Brockers or Barron if JJ goes that way. Should be fun to find out.
  19. InmanRoshi

    InmanRoshi Zone Scribe

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    Ugh, did you read my post. Any player drafted in the first round already has a ton of name recognition because he's been relentlessly hyped for four months leading up to the draft. Particularly an interior OL, because he's probably been described as "a special player worthy of a first round pick despite being a guard" an umpteen bajillion times before he's even played a snap in the NFL.

    I know you put a huge amount of weight in Pro Bowls for offensive guards, given that you ride Andre Gurode's jock and call him a Pro Bowl player despite the fact that no one would give him a starting job after he hit the open market and no one is even offering him a job at all at the moment, but it's a joke.
  20. jterrell

    jterrell Penguinite

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    of the guys you listed everyone drafted top 14 went to multiple pro bowls(except tyron who hasn't had a chance yet but sure looks on the way), all the ones who were selected after 14 did not.

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