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independants prefer mccain/palin

Discussion in 'Political Zone' started by iceberg, Sep 9, 2008.

  1. iceberg

    iceberg detoxed...part 2 Zone Supporter

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    McCain Now Winning Majority of Independents

    Majority of independents now prefer him over Obama, 52% to 37%

    by Lydia Saad
    PRINCETON, NJ -- John McCain's 6 percentage-point bounce in voter support spanning the Republican National Convention is largely explained by political independents shifting to him in fairly big numbers, from 40% pre-convention to 52% post-convention in Gallup Poll Daily tracking.

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    By contrast, Democrats' support for McCain rose 5 percentage points over the GOP convention period, from 9% to 14%, while Republicans' already-high support stayed about the same.

    The surge in political independents who favor McCain for president marks the first time since Gallup began tracking voters' general-election preferences in March that a majority of independents have sided with either of the two major-party candidates. Prior to now, McCain had received no better than 48% of the independent vote and Obama no better than 46%, making the race for the political middle highly competitive.

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    Layering voters' political ideology over their party identification provides the additional finding that the slim group of "pure independents" -- those with no political leanings to either major party -- grew more favorable to McCain by an even larger amount over the past week or so. McCain was preferred over Obama by 20% of pure independents in Gallup Poll Daily tracking from Aug. 29-31. In the latest three-day rolling average, from Sept. 5-7, he is favored by 39% of non-leaning independents, a 19-point increase. (Nearly 40% of pure independents remain undecided.)

    The more modest expansion of McCain's support among Democrats has come mainly from the right wing of that party, with 25% of conservative Democrats now favoring him over Obama, compared with 15% just before the Republican gathering. Moderate and liberal Democrats show only slightly more support for McCain than they did prior to the GOP convention.

    There has been no change in the presidential preferences of either conservative Republicans or moderate-to-liberal Republicans.

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    In contrast to the differential shifts in support for McCain by party and ideology, Gallup Poll Daily tracking finds a uniform rise in support for McCain since late August among men and women. The percentage of men supporting McCain over Obama pre- and post-Republican convention rose from 46% to 52%, while the percentage of women rose from 41% to 46%.

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    Voters 30 and older are more likely to be supporting McCain than they were just prior to the Republican convention, but not young voters. In contrast to the 7-point jumps in support seen among those aged 50 to 64, and 65 and older, there has been a 1-point decline in support among 18- to 29-year-olds.

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    Regionally, Gallup finds solid gains for McCain in all areas of the country except the West, where his already fairly high support has held steady. However, the 9-point increase for McCain in the South on top of his previous 49% support level in that region makes the South now overwhelmingly pro-McCain, 58% to 36%.

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    Final Points
    The events on the Republican stage in St. Paul, Minn., from Sept. 2-4 appear to have provided two important boosts to the McCain-Palin ticket.

    First, according to the latest USA Today/Gallup poll, conducted Sept. 5-7, McCain has energized his Republican base and, as a result, has potentially strengthened his positioning on Election Day with "likely voters." Second, as the Gallup Poll Daily trends discussed here show, voter movement toward McCain since the Republican convention occurred mainly with independents, thus broadening McCain's appeal beyond the party.

    Republicans had already lined up for McCain before the convention started. Now, they are excited, and are joined by more independents than at any other time in the campaign. Those gains may not last -- "bounces" rarely do -- but they enable McCain to launch the next phase of the campaign with the knowledge of what his winning coalition might look like.

    Survey Methods
    Gallup Poll Daily tracking results from Sept. 5-7, 2008, and Aug. 29-31, 2008, are each based on interviews with 2,733 registered voters. For results based on these samples, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±2 percentage points.

    Weekly averages of Gallup Poll Daily tracking from March 10-16, 2008, through Aug. 18-24, 2008, are generally based on interviews with more than 6,000 registered voters. For results based on this samples of this size, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±1 percentage points.

    Results based on various subgroups of voters are associated with larger margins of sampling error.

    Interviews are conducted with respondents on land-line telephones (for respondents with a land-line telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only).

    In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

    To provide feedback or suggestions about how to improve Gallup.com, please e-mail feedback@gallup.com.
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    ok, i suppose it's time to come out and bash the poll, the ticket, or anything else to ensure this is dismissed as wrong or fleeting hope.

    then queue up massive amounts of defense to fight it.

    i'm just watching now.
  2. Vintage

    Vintage The Cult of Jib

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    Last night, I had the most random dream...

    In part of the dream, Obama won the election... but the rest of the dream was so messed up... yet, it felt so real.
  3. Doomsday101

    Doomsday101 Well-Known Member

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    Sounds more like a nightmare. :laugh2:
  4. Vintage

    Vintage The Cult of Jib

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    Parts of it were (the Obama thing was the least horrifying of the nightmarish dream). Parts of it were ok.

    Never had a dream quite like this.

    Hope its not a re-run tonite....
  5. BrAinPaiNt

    BrAinPaiNt Bad Santa Staff Member

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    I had a dream it was hot as hades outside but it was snowing so hard it looked like a blizzard. Oddly enough a loud crack of thunder and heavy downpour woke me up.

    When I woke up my mouth was dry but I had to urinate rather badly.

    Not sure if all of this was an omen or not.

    Screw it...Write in Ron Paul.:D
  6. Doomsday101

    Doomsday101 Well-Known Member

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    I had a dream I woke up at 3 in the morning and the phone rang. I picked it up and Hillary was on the other end. I woke up looked next to me and Hillary asked who was that on the phone. Then I woke up for real screaming. :laugh2:
  7. BrAinPaiNt

    BrAinPaiNt Bad Santa Staff Member

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    Bill?
  8. adamc91115

    adamc91115 New Member

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    It also seems the either the selection of Palin, the convention, or a little bit of both seems to really be helping McCain in the west, particularly Washington.

    Pre-convention Obama was +12%. Now, Obama is only +4%. Its only 1 poll, but an 8% swing is pretty big.
  9. Doomsday101

    Doomsday101 Well-Known Member

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    The Palin selection has energized the ticket. I don't think Romney or one of the other options would have drawn this much attention.
  10. iceberg

    iceberg detoxed...part 2 Zone Supporter

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    he has gained for whatever reason by the selection. she seems to make an honest impact out there and the other side is desperate to say she has no experience.

    and never answer the same questions on their own side, only cry foul you asked and slam palin again.

    my 3 page thread asking/begging/pleading for what obama has vs. palin and all i got was some more quibs on both sides, but no facts.

    when you quit playing the game and stick with the facts, the threads really tend to go nowhere fast.
  11. Doomsday101

    Doomsday101 Well-Known Member

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    That is hard to do when the head of the democratic ticket has no big experiance and no executive experiance. Palin is not the head of the ticket that would be McCain and he has a boat load of experiance.
  12. iceberg

    iceberg detoxed...part 2 Zone Supporter

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    well i understand that and do agree. but i want to put down the attacks and insults and see if i can get those in here who shout out palin has no experience to tell me how they do a direct comparison to obama.

    i don't care about the "my guy is better than your guy RAH!" crap. i'm all for emotion but please for the love of god put your bias down and look at qualifications, not reasons to discredit cause someone wears a different color.

    i quit posting for awhile and that's why. i hate the bickering and baseless accusations on either side that's done with a smug tone i don't get cause it doesn't follow up mentally.

    emotionally sure. i get it. get emotional but be smart about it. not just a cheerleader.

    still waiting for a direct comparison with palin if they must forgo a direct comparison. still wonder why mccain may die cause he's old but obama may not get shot because he's black and about to be president and that upsets huckleberry in the backwoods somewhere.

    if one is valid so is the other. so do we just ignore the presidents and focus on the vp's cause "it could happen"?

    i simply won't follow the one size should fit all anymore. if people come at me that way, i've learned to ignore pretty well by now. i've even had to stop myself from replying to those playing that game lately cause i know logic will be lost on them.

    it's emotional. i get it. but that's not where it should end for either side, that's where it should begin.
  13. Doomsday101

    Doomsday101 Well-Known Member

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    What I'm saying is the race it between McCain and Obama not Obama and Palin. That is who people in the end are voting for that is the top spot. I think the Dems are wasting their time attacking Palin she is not at the top of the ticket and experience wise she has as much if not more than Obama. As for McCain and his age his mother is still living in her 90's and according to his last examination he is in good health. Hell McCain is not the one who needed a Hawaii vacation in the middle of the presidential race. :laugh2:
  14. iceberg

    iceberg detoxed...part 2 Zone Supporter

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    no, i get what you're saying dooms. i appreciate the follow up as well. like you, i don't get why they attack palin on experience when she has more than obama.

    i don't get why they say mccain may die so let's focus on who *could* be president.

    that as a stance makes no sense. it doesn't "add up".

    that dog don't hunt.

    i can see a twisted form of logic there (twisted, not logical logic) but again, it doesn't come together as a valid plan. i'd love to hear how obama has the experience he says a VP candidate doesn't have.

    but i can't get that from those in here anyway. in my mind i don't think you can compare that cause it's simply not there. hope and a prayer no one will notice or ask?

    i am. i want to know.

    i was told palin can't be a leader by canadiancowboy because alaska only has 1 mil people and her mayorship had less people than his condo complex.

    so if i use that as a baseline for qualifications, where does obama have this?

    it got quiet after that. i don't want to see standards come and go for the sake of our own views. you either hold these standards to be what you judge all by or you may as well be a fart in the wind cause you'll go along with anything that blows your way.

    i'd like to think *we* have more intelligence than that. i'd like to think that when broken down we can find a baseline to judge qualifications with these standards applied to all, the same way.

    but i'm having a hell of a time getting there.
  15. Doomsday101

    Doomsday101 Well-Known Member

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    Frankly the best democratic voices in the media have not been able to say what this greater experience of Obama is. Other than he has ran a political campaign for 19 month and how that equals any kind of real experience I don't know? Palin like it or not has executive experience and she was responsible for the well being of the state of Alaska and it's people and according to polls she had 80% approval ratings there so evidently they liked what she had to offer to their state.
  16. bbgun

    bbgun Benched

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  17. iceberg

    iceberg detoxed...part 2 Zone Supporter

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    so far that's what i see. but those attacking her i want to put the pitchforks down and compare evenly and w/o emotion. hard to do, i know. it would be for any of us.

    but there's got to be a reason why i get crickets when i ask simply - what? what is the baseline we can honestly evaluate both candidates by?

    i'm ont the radical left or right so i don't care about the jabs and barbs. stop those and put the pompoms down and just tell me how obama has more validated experience than a VP canidate.

    then tell me why the aim is so bad on who the focus should be.

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