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Joyner: Dalton is better than Newton

Discussion in 'NFL Zone' started by Risen Star, Dec 4, 2011.

  1. Risen Star

    Risen Star Likes Collector Zone Supporter

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    Andy Dalton is NFL's top rookie

    Cam Newton has been impressive, but the Rookie of the Year isn't about hype

    By KC Joyner
    ESPN Insider


    As we head into the homestretch of the NFL's regular season, a few things seem like near certainties: Aaron Rodgers will win the MVP award, the Green Bay Packers will be the No. 1 seed in the NFC and the Indianapolis Colts will finish with the worst record in the league and thus have dibs on drafting Andrew Luck.

    Another item that seems like it should fit into that list is Cam Newton winning the Rookie of the Year award. After all, he is on pace to throw for more yards than any other rookie quarterback in NFL history and has a good shot at breaking the season record for rushing touchdowns by a quarterback.

    Those numbers are certainly prolific, but if one desires quality over quantity, Newton should not be considered the front-runner for this award.

    That honor would go to Andy Dalton, as a detailed tape review and metric analysis indicate Dalton's numbers are better than Newton's in a variety of ways.

    http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/stor...-not-cam-newton-win-nfl-rookie-year-award-nfl
  2. cruz_aedo861

    cruz_aedo861 Member

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    Dalton has more talent around him and a top 10 D. Cam has pretty much done it on his own. Cam deserves it.
  3. Future

    Future Intramural Legend

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    Joyner: I'm stoopid
  4. Keystone_Heavy

    Keystone_Heavy Member

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    I'm sorry, I don't have insider. What exactl is his reasoning?
  5. casmith07

    casmith07 I'm the best poster in the game!

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    You give Newton a Top 10 defense and they would be in the running for a wildcard, maybe the division.
  6. ThreeSportStar80

    ThreeSportStar80 Benched

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    LMAO@ this idiot... Pole majority of the GM's right now and they'll take Cam over any QB from that draft class.
  7. Hoofbite

    Hoofbite Well-Known Member

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    that's why you have to pay for it.

    he has no reasoning, just some words to ruffle some feathers and attract curious readers.
  8. Stautner

    Stautner New Member

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    Let's see, Newton has a higher completion percentage, has 653 more passing yards, 1084 more total yards, 8 more total TD's, a higher QB rating, and an overall worse supporting cast to help him ......

    I like Dalton, and Dalton may well become the better QB over time, but there is no way he deserves ROY over Newton.
  9. basstapp

    basstapp Well-Known Member

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    I would take Dalton over Cam Newton if I was a GM. They have comparable stats and Newton is playing with a Vet receiver while Dalton's number 1 receiver is a really good rookie in Green. Panthers have a better RBs then the Bengals and TE are probably a draw between the two team.

    I think if you give Dalton another play-maker on offense next year they are going to be a major contender.
  10. Future

    Future Intramural Legend

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    Did you read the post above you regarding "comparable stats?"
  11. Stautner

    Stautner New Member

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    I'm not sure I wouldn't take Dalton over Cam either if I were a GM, but that's not the same question as who should get ROY. Cam's stats are better, and the improvement in his team's offense has been greater.
  12. Risen Star

    Risen Star Likes Collector Zone Supporter

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    Actually he has his usual set of stats to back up his opinion.

    He's a numbers guy and sticks to his numbers no matter what.
  13. basstapp

    basstapp Well-Known Member

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    I dont believe that post was there when I hit reply. Either way newtons team plays from behind quite a bit which would explain his increased yards. Dalton has more passing yea but less interceptions. So either way ill take the more complete quarterback .right now. Dalton looks better in the pocket and makes less mistakes. I'f the bengals make the playoffs he should win Roy
  14. joseephuss

    joseephuss Well-Known Member

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    Two less interceptions. That is not a big difference. Dalton has a 3.10% interception rate and Newton'sis 3.39%. Very close. Too close to say one makes less mistakes. With 4 games left, those numbers could get even closer.

    I think Newton has won it up to this point, but things can change with 4 games left. It could really lock it up or lose. He is playing from the lead in my opinion.
  15. big dog cowboy

    big dog cowboy THE BIG DOG Staff Member

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    Why is his information/insight so valuable it's considered "ESPN Insider" worthy?
  16. Hoofbite

    Hoofbite Well-Known Member

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    What numbers is he looking at?

    Straight TD:INT?

    Newton has a better completion percentage, more yards and a whole bunch of rushing TDs.
  17. Cowboys&LakersFan

    Cowboys&LakersFan Benched

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    While I think Newton is overrated and I definitely wouldn't trade our guy Romo for him he's without question a better quarterback than Dalton.
  18. Risen Star

    Risen Star Likes Collector Zone Supporter

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    Here's a summary of his stance. I'd copy it all but it's a major pain in the backside. I'll bold all his commentary so it's easier to decipher him from me.

    -

    Let's start with some statistical basics. (Note: all yards per attempt -- YPA -- totals include attempts and yardage for penalties such as pass interference, defensive holding, illegal contact, etc.)

    Newton does top Dalton in the aforementioned season-long passing and rushing yardage categories and has the lead in short pass YPA (6.3 for Newton vs. 5.1 for Dalton) and overall YPA (7.7 for Newton vs. 6.9 for Dalton).

    A lead of that caliber sounds like a daunting task for Dalton to overcome, but check out his leads in the other route depth levels (see below).


    Dalton and Newton's YPA by length of pass

    Route Depth...........................Dalton.............Newton
    Medium (11-19 yards)...............9.7..................8.7
    Deep (20-29)...........................15.9................12.9
    Bomb (30+).............................19.2...............13.1
    Vertical (11+)..........................12.7................10.4
    Vertical Stretch (20+)...............17.4................12.9

    What this means is all of Newton's YPA lead stems from dink and dunk throws where yards after the catch tend to spike the YPA total. When it comes to productivity on the more difficult and dangerous downfield throws, Dalton has Newton beat by far.



    --

    Then he goes on to talk about how Dalton's edge in this area has actually gotten larger as the season has progressed and breaks that down with more stats. And he follows that up and makes this point about how mistake prone both QBs have been this year....

    --


    Dalton's edge doesn't stop there. He also has fared much better than Newton in the bad decision rate (BDR) metric. This is a game-tape review metric that gauges how often a quarterback makes a mistake that leads either to a turnover or a near turnover (e.g. dropped interception, fumble recovered by the offense, etc.).

    For the season, Dalton has a 3.7 percent BDR. Anything higher 3 percent in this category is considered unacceptable, so he has some room for improvement, but his total is much better than Newton's 5.0 percent BDR.

    To be fair, Newton's BDR in Weeks 7-12 is lower than Dalton's total in the same time frame (2.4 percent for Newton, 3.3 percent for Dalton), but that just goes to show that when Newton was putting up his phenomenal early-season yardage totals, he was doing it while forcing an incredibly high number of passes into coverage.

    To put this risk-taking into perspective, consider that Newton's 6.8 percent BDR in Weeks 1-6 was more than 50 percent higher than Jay Cutler's 4.5 percent BDR in 2010. That's not a misprint -- Newton actually was making errors one-and-a-half times as often as the poster child for ill-advised aerials.


    --

    His last point is about how Dalton has his team in the playoff picture and Newton doesn't....

    --


    One also cannot overlook the fact that Dalton has his team in playoff contention (the Bengals have a 52.2 percent chance of making the postseason, according to the ESPN Insider Playoffs Predictor), while Newton's Panthers have only three wins on the season, two of which came against the lowly Jacksonville Jaguars and Indianapolis Colts.

    For those who say this isn't a fair comparison because the Cincinnati Bengals are a better team than the Carolina Panthers, it needs to be pointed out that the Bengals were 4-12 last year, or only two games better than the Panthers. The offseason was also quite unkind to Cincinnati, as they lost one of their top cornerbacks in free agency (Johnathan Joseph) and had to gut their wide receiver corps. Wins are often overvalued when it comes to grading quarterbacks, but they still are quite important, and Dalton's edge here should not be taken lightly.

    None of the above evidence should be taken lightly, but it might not be enough to overcome the huge PR edge Newton gains because of his Heisman Trophy, prolific stats and willingness to be an icon and entertainer. If hype is taken out of the equation, however, at this moment the 2011 Rookie of the Year award should go to Dalton.
  19. joseephuss

    joseephuss Well-Known Member

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    The Bengals have also played and beaten the lowly Jaguars and Colts.
  20. Risen Star

    Risen Star Likes Collector Zone Supporter

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    So have the Panthers.

    Doh.

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