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Let history be your guide (long)

Discussion in 'Draft Zone' started by glassjaw, Aug 24, 2007.

  1. glassjaw

    glassjaw New Member

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    There is a ton of speculation about what to do with the Cowboys 2 first rounders next year. I know most are literally drooling over McFadden. If we look at our team we can almost all agree to the following needs:

    RB-especially if JJ leaves
    CB-
    DT/NT-Fergie is getting up in age and no real b/u is around
    WR-TO and TG are both over 30

    If you look at these positions and how first rounders typically turn out. You will find that as far as franchise backs that last for a long time in the league you have to look in the first round.

    For example, if you simply look at the all-time list of rushers of the top 25 only 7 were not first round picks. If you look at the top ten only Curtis Martin at #4 was not a first round pick. There are busts like Blair Thomas #2 overall in 1990, and Lawrence Phillips (due more to character than ability), but it seems undeniable that the first round is the place to get a franchise back the hidden gems are very hard to find and strangely seem to always have their careers shortened by injury or simply wearing down. Jamal Anderson, Chris Warren, Barry Foster, Ricky Watters, Terry allen, etc all proved to be pro bowl caliber players, but all of their careers ended a little before their time and all declined sharply at the end. No... round one is the spot if you want an all-time back.

    Cornerback is also a position that has success in round one. However,nice players are found beyond round 1, but Deions, Champ Baileys, Rod Woodsons, or Troy Vincents will be gone. These are found in the top ten of round one. Another thing to note never draft a corner from Nebraska. Bruce Pickens comes to mind. Success can be had later in round one as well our own Kevin Smith was one, but diamonds can be found much later. Aeneas Williams, Bobby Taylor, Mel Renfro, and Ty Law are a few. Two examples from home are Larry Brown and Everson Walls. still, the true shut down guys are in round one.

    Now, wide receiver. here is a position where top guys often do not live up to expectations. Just in the last few years you have players like, Desmond Howard, David Terrell, Mike Williams, Charles Rogers, Rod Gardner, Koren Robinson, Peter Warrick, David Boston, Michael Westbrook, J.J. Stokes, anyone Atlanta drafts and many more. While top starters like John Stallworth (rd3)Anquan Boldin (rd2), TO (rd3), Marques Colston (rd7), Chris Carter, Keenan McCardell, Chad Johnson (rd2) Jimmy Smith (rd2) and Steve Smith were all found later. The bust factor for round one wideouts is much higher. Look to round 2 and later for a wideout.

    Lastly, DT. 1st round DTs probably fail to live up to expectations more than any other in recent years. However they are hard to find in later rounds as well. Gerard Warren, Reggie Mcgrew, Darrell Russell, Ryan Sims, Steve Emtman, Jimmy Kennedy, Sean Gilbert to name a few. Were huge busts. The Bob Lilly, Joe Greene, Lee Roy Selmons, Randy White are Hall of Famers. You still find Warren Sapp, Anthony McFarland, Casey Hampton, John Henderson, and Bryant Youngs, but it is hard and for every decent player there are just some spectacular busts. Even players that turned out to be good never really played up to their draft status. Our own Russell Maryland and Tony Casilles picked one and two overall respectivlly, while very good players, and Dallas would not have won their Super Bowls w/o them they did not reach a dominant level. Players can be found in later rounds. Dallas' own Leon Lett, and Chad Hennings are two. Players in later rounds typically have flaws from off the field problems (Lett, Tank Johnson) to work ethic (Willie Blade, shaun Rogers). DT is a hard one to figure. A lot of the greats have come from round one and the busts just seem so horrific. Bottom line draft a DT in round one only if you do extensive research and find a strong passion for the game a la Warren Sapp and work ethic like a Randy White.

    The bottom line for 2008 is this:

    RBs- Round 1
    CBs- one can be found later that is good, but shut down guys go in round one
    WRs- one can definately be found later and there really are not any sure things in round one. Many great size speed guys have failed miserably.
    DT/NT- probably the hardest to put finger on, probably look more to desire, work ethic and desire and not be overly wowed by wonderous size and speed.

    So...

    1a. RB McFadden, (if gone try to trade down then take, Slaton, or Rice)
    1b. DT Sedrick Ellis DT (size is not as important on Wade's D) Antoine Cason will be gone)
    2. WR Earl Bennett Vandy, Adarius Bowman WR Ok St. (if not gone in one)
    3. Best available CB
  2. Zaxor

    Zaxor Virtus Mille Scuta

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    2007-2006 is not rated yet so lets start in

    2005 - Running Backs
    RdSel #PlayerSchoolTeam
    1 2Ronnie BrownAuburnMiami Dolphins
    1 4Cedric BensonTexasChicago Bears
    1 5Cadillac WilliamsAuburnTampa Bay Buccaneers
    2 44J.J. ArringtonCaliforniaArizona Cardinals
    2 54Eric SheltonLouisvilleCarolina Panthers
    3 65Frank GoreMiami (Fla.)San Francisco 49ers
    3 73Vernand MorencyOklahoma StateHouston Texans
    3 77Ryan MoatsLouisiana TechPhiladelphia Eagles
    4 109Marion BarberMinnesotaDallas Cowboys
    4 110Brandon JacobsSouthern IllinoisNew York Giants
    4 112Ciatrick FasonFloridaMinnesota Vikings
    4 120Manuel WhiteUCLAWashington Redskins
    4 127Alvin PearmanVirginiaJacksonville Jaguars
    4 130Darren SprolesKansas StateSan Diego Chargers
    5 142Damien NashMissouriTennessee Titans
    5 158Justin GreenMontanaBaltimore Ravens
    6 182Cedric HoustonTennesseeNew York Jets
    6 196Tony JacksonIowaSeattle Seahawks
    6 201DeAndra CobbMichigan StateAtlanta Falcons
    7 221Rick RazzanoMississippiTampa Bay Buccaneers
    7 222Nehemiah BroughtonThe CitadelWashington Redskins
    7 236Lionel GatesLouisvilleBuffalo Bills
    7 244Noah HerronNorthwesternPittsburgh Steelers
    7 251Madison HedgecockNorth CarolinaSt. Louis Rams


    I like the later rounds than the 1st round

    2004 - Running Backs
    RdSel #PlayerSchoolTeam
    1 24Steven JacksonOregon StateSt. Louis Rams
    1 26Chris PerryMichiganCincinnati Bengals
    1 30Kevin JonesVirginia TechDetroit Lions
    2 41Tatum BellOklahoma StateDenver Broncos
    2 43Julius JonesNotre DameDallas Cowboys
    2 55Greg JonesFlorida StateJacksonville Jaguars
    4 119Mewelde MooreTulaneMinnesota Vikings
    4 128Cedric CobbsArkansasNew England Patriots
    5 154Michael TurnerNorthern IllinoisSan Diego Chargers
    5 162Thomas TapehMinnesotaPhiladelphia Eagles
    6 191Troy FlemingTennesseeTennessee Titans
    7 208Adimchinobe EchemanduCaliforniaCleveland Browns
    7 219Quincy WilsonWest VirginiaAtlanta Falcons
    7 228Casey CramerDartmouthTampa Bay Buccaneers
    7 235Derrick WardOttawa (Kans.)New York Jets
    7 242Bruce PerryMarylandPhiladelphia Eagles
    7 247Brandon MireePittsburghDenver Broncos


    Jackson is a stud but is he that much better than a JJ

    but lets see so far we have 1 stud in the first round out of 6 but we have very good RB's...Barber, Gore, Jacobs, Jones, Turner who aren't in some cases but just a half step down from the stud


    2003 - Running Backs
    RdSel #PlayerSchoolTeam
    1 23Willis McGaheeMiami (Fla.)Buffalo Bills
    1 27Larry JohnsonPenn StateKansas City Chiefs
    3 77Musa SmithGeorgiaBaltimore Ravens
    3 93Chris BrownColoradoTennessee Titans
    3 96Justin FargasUSCOakland Raiders
    4 99Artose PinnerKentuckyDetroit Lions
    4 101Domanick WilliamsLouisiana StateHouston Texans
    4 105Onterrio SmithOregonMinnesota Vikings
    4 108Quentin GriffinOklahomaDenver Broncos
    4 115Lee SuggsVirginia TechCleveland Browns
    4 132LaBrandon ToefieldLouisiana StateJacksonville Jaguars
    6 206Brock ForseyBoise StateChicago Bears
    7 235Ahmaad GallowayAlabamaDenver Broncos
    7 247Casey MooreStanfordCarolina Panthers
    Tony HollingsGeorgia TechHouston Texans

    2002 - Running Backs
    RdSel #PlayerSchoolTeam
    1 16William GreenBoston CollegeCleveland Browns
    1 18T.J. DuckettMichigan StateAtlanta Falcons
    2 34DeShaun FosterUCLACarolina Panthers
    2 51Clinton PortisMiami (Fla.)Denver Broncos
    2 54Maurice MorrisOregonSeattle Seahawks
    2 56Ladell BettsIowaWashington Redskins
    3 84Lamar GordonNorth Dakota StateSt. Louis Rams
    3 91Brian WestbrookVillanovaPhiladelphia Eagles
    4 99Jonathan WellsOhio StateHouston Texans
    4 107Omar EasyPenn StateKansas City Chiefs
    4 119Travis StephensTennesseeTampa Bay Buccaneers
    5 145Kyle JohnsonSyracuseCarolina Panthers
    5 166Verron HaynesGeorgiaPittsburgh Steelers
    6 185Josh ScobeyKansas StateArizona Cardinals
    6 197Larry NedSan Diego StateOakland Raiders
    6 199Adrian PetersonGeorgia SouthernChicago Bears
    6 204Brian AllenStanfordIndianapolis Colts
    6 207Chester TaylorToledoBaltimore Ravens
    7 214Luke StaleyBrigham YoungDetroit Lions
    7 237Antwoine WomackVirginiaNew England Patriots
    7 241Leonard HenryEast CarolinaMiami Dolphins
    7 257Rock CartwrightKansas StateWashington Redskins

    so we have what now 2-10 1st rnds that panned out :banghead: thats not good enough and their are very good RB's to be had through out most drafts

    next post CB
  3. Zaxor

    Zaxor Virtus Mille Scuta

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    the problem with formating causes me to not post the CB

    but here is the site

    http://www.nfl.com/draft/history/fulldraft?position=Cornerbacks&type=position


    needless to say you stand a much better chance getting a good CB in the 1st round than you do a RB

    and rarely do you get a CB who can start in any round outside the high 2nd..

    so

    1st rnd CB
    1st rnd CB
    2nd OG
    3rd best available RB/WR

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