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McCain ahead in latest Rasmussen Poll

Discussion in 'Political Zone' started by Cajuncowboy, Aug 4, 2008.

  1. Cajuncowboy

    Cajuncowboy Preacher From The Black Lagoon

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    http://rasmussenreports.com/public_...ial_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

    Polls this early really don't mean anything so take it with a grain of salt, but for all the "Obama will cake walk through this thing" talk, here is some food for thought.

    BTW, internally the dems are freaking that Obama isn't far and away ahead of McCain by now. They have real concerns right now with about 90 days before the election.
  2. Cajuncowboy

    Cajuncowboy Preacher From The Black Lagoon

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  3. heavyg

    heavyg Active Member

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    when are the conventions? I am really interested to see who each candidate picks for a running mate. I think that is going to make or break one of them
  4. AbeBeta

    AbeBeta Well-Known Member

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  5. BrAinPaiNt

    BrAinPaiNt °¤~Cold Eternal~¤° Staff Member

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    Should be soon I would think. Word is that the McCain Camp is waiting to see who Obama chooses before making their choice.
  6. Cajuncowboy

    Cajuncowboy Preacher From The Black Lagoon

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  7. Cajuncowboy

    Cajuncowboy Preacher From The Black Lagoon

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    The choice is already made. They are just waiting for Obama to announce, then they will to try and trump the Obama announcement.
  8. BrAinPaiNt

    BrAinPaiNt °¤~Cold Eternal~¤° Staff Member

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    I wonder which attack they will go with concerning Obama's VP choice.

    It will either be...he has been in washington too long and is exactly what Obama is not...so basically bashing him for picking someone with exp.

    Or they will say, he picked a younger guy with no exp.

    ----

    Same with the Obama camp in concerns to McCain.

    ---

    I tell you what would be funny. Is if McCain picks a Dem and Obama picks a Repub.

    Then we could have some serious bashing and hypocrisy going back and forth.:laugh2:
  9. AbeBeta

    AbeBeta Well-Known Member

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    Or it sounds like the sort of fluctuations consistent with a 3 point margin of error.
  10. Cajuncowboy

    Cajuncowboy Preacher From The Black Lagoon

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    YEah but to lose 9 points and have it vanish in thin air with all of the sycophant media up his tail during that European vacation he went on, you'd think Barak Griswold would have done much better.
  11. AbeBeta

    AbeBeta Well-Known Member

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    Here's how statistics work.

    Let's say it is actually a 6 point lead among voters. With a 3 point margin of error that means your sample may range +/- 3 points either way. What is 6 plus 3? It is 9. What is 6 minus 3? It is 3.

    Both the 9 point result and the 3 point result could statistically reflect exactly the same population.
  12. Cajuncowboy

    Cajuncowboy Preacher From The Black Lagoon

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    Except the shift is dramatic compared to what the very same poll had been saying previously. As I said before, the polls right now don't matter a whole lot, just pointing out the danger signs that are pointing to a major problem with Obama.
  13. AbeBeta

    AbeBeta Well-Known Member

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    If you don't understand the statistical explanation I just gave you then there really is no reason to continue this discussion.

    As I noted, this "dramatic" shift could just as well reflect samples at the extremes of either end of the sampling variation.
  14. AtlCB

    AtlCB Active Member

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    What about the day where they were even?
  15. Cajuncowboy

    Cajuncowboy Preacher From The Black Lagoon

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    It's not a question of not understanding it. It a question of the impact that he is having, or not having on the race. Maybe you are so quick to try and twist anything into a pro Obama thing that you are not understanding the point of the posts. :rolleyes:
  16. AbeBeta

    AbeBeta Well-Known Member

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    Just providing a simplified example for Cajun -- not that it helped -- what we've seen are fluctuations up and down from what on average has been a 3 point Obama lead. That 9% figure gained a bunch of attention but that doesn't accurately describe where the polling numbers have been on the whole - it was simply the most extreme result found.
  17. AbeBeta

    AbeBeta Well-Known Member

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    No, I'm trying to show you that much of the "loss" that you are describing could just as well be simple fluctuations in the sample around the margin of error.

    But I forgot that I was talking to a brick wall. So I'll stop with you and come back with some heavy smack in November.
  18. Doomsday101

    Doomsday101 Well-Known Member

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    Bottom line this is going to be a close race and chances are will come down to 1 or 2 major swing states. Given the fact that Bush popularity is extremely low and this race is this tight even after Hillary dropped out should give McCain supporters hope.
  19. Vintage

    Vintage The Cult of Jib

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    The support for Bush is low.

    The support for Congress is low.

    This suggests a close election.
  20. canters

    canters Active Member

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    Most "enlightened thinkers" in the media think, with some good reasoning, that BO should be up by 10 pts. now, with all the favorable coverage he gets and all the bad economic news we see. The fact he is not way up is trouble for him,,,,we know it and they know it.....

    Then there is the so-called "Bradley effect" where guilt-ridden whites tell pollsters they will vote for the black guy, but once alone in the voting booth, they go the other way...I think BO is in trouble.

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