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McCain's fate hangs on three states

Discussion in 'Political Zone' started by Heisenberg, Oct 3, 2008.

  1. Heisenberg

    Heisenberg Pow! Pow!

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    http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1008/14226.html

    McCain's fate hangs on three states
    By: Mike Allen
    October 2, 2008 11:48 PM EST

    ST. LOUIS — Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) now must win Pennsylvania, Wisconsin or Minnesota in order to get enough electoral votes to win the presidency, his campaign says.

    Those were considered swing states in 2000 and 2004, but George W. Bush lost them both times.

    “Our ability to pick off one of those three states is where our fortunes are largely held,” a McCain official said. “These are states where Barack Obama is on the defense.”

    McCain's political director, Mike DuHaime, told reporters on a conference call three hours before debate time that the campaign plans an "aggressive" front in Maine, a solidly Democratic state that gets virtually no attention in presidential races.

    The sudden attention to Maine, which is getting some of the staff McCain is moving out of Michigan, reflects what a squeaker McCain expects.

    Maine is not a winner-take-all state (the only other one that splits its electoral vote is Nebraska). And McCain aides, perhaps optimistically, are suggesting he can win one electoral vote by picking up one of the Pine Tree State’s two congressional districts.

    The Maine congressional district McCain is eying is the larger, northern one, the 2nd District, which covers most of the state and is held by Democratic Rep. Michael H. Michaud.

    McCain has very limited ways to win, with no room for error. Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) still has many routes to the White House and so can afford to campaign on a much broader playing field.

    McCain aides discussed their tough new map math after Politico’s Jonathan Martin reported, and McCain aides subsequently confirmed that he is giving up on Michigan, withdrawing staff and advertising.

    “We felt like being able to play in Michigan up to this point was an offensive move,” a McCain aide said. “As we close down into Election Day, our map is going to become more targeted.

    McCain figures that winning one of those three big remaining swing states, plus those he considers safe, would put him 10 shy of the 270 electoral votes he needs to win.

    “We can dig up an additional 10 electoral votes in Nevada, Colorado and New Hampshire,” the official said.

    Recent polls have showed Obama running strong in some states Bush won in 2004. But the McCain official said the campaign is confident: “We feel strongly that we’re going to win in Florida, Missouri and the traditional Republican states of Virginia and North Carolina.”

    One McCain official acknowledged that the campaign is feeling the pressure from the better-funded Obama. "He has an extraordinary amount of resources," the official said.
  2. Danny White

    Danny White Winter is Coming

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    If you asked me to guess today, I think Obama's going to win... but there's still time for that to change.
  3. Wheat

    Wheat Philosopher

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    Always time for a huge change in the math.

    I think the Biden pick was to help in PA also. He's often called PA's 3rd Senator and is very popular in the East side of the state. Can he make a difference? We shall see.

    If McCain loses.....its to Bush again. Obama isn't beating him on his own.
  4. REDVOLUTION

    REDVOLUTION Return to Dominance

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    How is Ohio not on that list?


    Historically, Repubs have to win Ohio to win Pres.
  5. jimnabby

    jimnabby Well-Known Member

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    Because Ohio's a given. If McCain loses Ohio, it's over. He needs the states they mentioned over and above Ohio.
  6. punchnjudy

    punchnjudy Well-Known Member

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    I thought the dems were done after the primaries...now I have some doubts. People can often react irrationally during a bad economic times, and that makes voter behavior tougher to predict.
  7. dbair1967

    dbair1967 Arch Defender

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    PA is the key state...whomever wins that is going to win the election
  8. dacarmelking210

    dacarmelking210 New Member

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    I currently live in PA and to me, it seems that Obama is doing a better job campaigning than McCain. For every McCain ad on TV, there are 5 Obama ads. The fact that Biden is from Scranton (the city of my birth btw) is EXTREMELY helpful. The Scranton/Wilkes-Barre area is one of the most important areas in the entire state. Every election, the presidental candidates go there at least 3 or 4 times apeice. If you win Northeastern, Pennsylvania, chances are, you win the entire state. People in the Scranton area ADORE Biden; he's one of 'their own.' Somewhere between 50 and 60% of Scranton is Irish-Catholic, which is exactly what Biden is, and they are a very proud group, who usually vote for 'their own' during election season (local, state, presidental, etc). Personally, I don't see how Obama is NOT going to win in the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre area...hence, I don't see how he is going ot lose PA.
  9. DFWJC

    DFWJC Well-Known Member Zone Supporter

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    No doubt. The candidate of the party in power during harder economic times takes a huge hit regardless of his/her policies. Although both sides (in reality)should share some blame (but less than the baks themselves) for this banking fiasco, history shows that the party with presidential power will take the bigger hit than the party in pwere of the both the Senate and House.

    Same would be true if the tables were turned. Don't doubt that Repubs would try to pin the blame on a Dem president if bad econmonic times were preceeding an election. It's BS both ways, but that's how it works.

    The only difference is that the main line press would then be defending the party in power. The street does NOT go both ways in that arena. That's another story though.
  10. Hoov

    Hoov Senior Member

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    Philly will definitely vote democrat and it will be by a huge margin
  11. masomenos

    masomenos Less is more

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    I would be very surprised if McCain won all 3 of those states, right now they are all either leaning towards Obama or are "likely" Obama states. According to Rasmussen, Obama has a 6 point lead in PA, a 2 point lead in WI, and an 8 point lead in MN. Intrading has all 3 states heavily towards Obama as well.

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