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Mock off-season (long)

Discussion in 'Draft Zone' started by jterrell, Mar 3, 2014.

  1. jterrell

    jterrell Penguinite

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    Draft-rankings provided by CBS; picking players within 3 spots above or 10 spots below; no more.

    Restructures:Romo, Ware(with pay cut of about 3m this year and next), Lee --~6m in cap space March 11th.
    June 1st cut: Miles adds 5.5m to cap space.

    I as Dallas refuse to chase anyone in free agency. --this team isn't one player away.
    I believe they will sit tight and and wait for the draft first.
    If they chase free agents it will likely be under a new coach in 2015 imho.

    Going to posit they bring Spencer back.
    Staff has always loved the player and he is too hurt to chase riches.
    Incentive-laden 1 year deal that starts at vet minimum.
    Incentives are very easy to add (and very cap friendly) since he played less than 2 full games last year.
    I 'think' they can do a reverse of last year and get Spencer back on the field by week 2 or 3 as a back up SDE.

    Draft:
    Rd 1: Aaron Donald --Donald is a day 1 starter at 3T. His size is WAYYY overblown. This defense relies on quick twitch guys at DL and Donald is that in spades.
    Rd 2: Lamarcus Joyner --Small but huge playing making safety. A lot like JJ Wilcox but knows how to actually play the position. Can be the nickel cover guy if Scandrick plays outside once you release Carr in a year or so.
    Rd 3: Jeremiah Attaochu --speed rusher/WDE back up. Potential to grow into starter status.
    Rd 4: Bruce Ellington --WR not a huge need but a great value here. Essentially a better Beasley here. Very strong though not very tall. Love ex Point Guards because they know how to maximize quickness to get open.
    Rd 5: George Uko --One of my sleepers and late round pet cats. Explosive guy who can play 3T and SDE. Comes from a rotation system and probably best there as a back up in NFL.
    Rd 6: we will have a pick here somehow, team won't go 70 or so picks between players with all the 7th round ammo they'll have after comps are announced.... Denicos Allen--Telvin Smith type player who you can afford to wait on this late in the draft. Special teamer and nickel backer year 1.
    Rd 7: a) Aaron Colvin --value pick with big upside. future pick.
    b) Trey Millard --Not an OU fan but the back to back 7th here are extreme value. Milliard a far better player than any FB we've had. Can catch and can run. Plays out of backfield comfortable which our TEs have struggled with.
    c) Spencer Long --another injury special. Long is type of guy Garrett loves. Checks all the boxes and can be developed as top interior back up.

    UDFA targets:
    OL -- at least two OTs
    DL --A couple 1T guys
    WR --always add one of these
    QB --should be appealing as we have a roster spot begging to be had and the number 2 job is readily available in short order.
    RB --at least two guys here
    LB --a couple here.

    Projected Depth Chart

    QB: Romo, Orton, UDFA
    RB: Murray, Randle, Dunbar
    FB: Millard
    TE: Witten, Escobar, Hanna
    WR: Dez, TWill, Benford/Harris
    Slot: Beasley, Ellington, Harris
    OT: Tyron, Free, Parnell, Weems
    OG: Bern, Leary, Long
    OC: TFred, Bern

    WDE: Ware, Attaochu
    1T: Hayden, Kearse
    3T: Donald, Bass, Uko
    SDE: Crawford, Selvie
    WLB: Holloman, Carter, Allen
    MLB: Lee, Carter
    SLB: Durant, Wilber
    LCB: Carr, Mo, Scandrick
    RCB: Mo, Scandrick, Moore
    Nickel CB: Scandrick, Joyner, Webb
    FS: Joyner, Heath
    SS: Church, Wilcox

    Punter: UDFA or FA
    Kicker: Bailey
    Returners: Harris, Dunbar, Ellington


    Overall thoughts: This isn't a title team but it is younger and salary cap flexibility is at a decade long high. It is a reasonably deep roster by recent standards.
    Money is there for a DL or OL if something happens in camp to a projected starter.
    I have Brian Waters and Marcus Spears numbers if I need a big body.
    Nothing about the above is at all sexy but it does strike me as the types of off-seasons winning football teams have.

    Questions entering Camp with this group:
    Does Orton retire? If he does Dallas needs to sign a veteran free agent.
    LB: Dallas has to figure out how to best employ it's LBs. They have quality bodies but the 4-3 is new to many of them and getting some wear and tear off Sean Lee's body a major goal.
    Bounceback years? Dallas needs Mo and Bruce Carter to show up. Add Crawford to that group and that's a lot of young, highly drafted talent they need to come through.
  2. Idgit

    Idgit Ice up, son. Ice up! Staff Member

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    Surprised this thread doesn't have more traction. I think these are the kinds of reasonable moves we'll likely make. A couple of comments: I'm not a fan of taking a 1-tech high in the draft, but that's one of the easier positions to improve on in our DL. I'd be surprised, and unhappy, if we don't start looking for a player there from the 4th round on down. I like Hayden for what he is, but what he is is 'replaceable' as a full time starter.

    You've also demoted Carter to a backup player, which I'd do, too. But you put him behind Holloman. I'd rather see us add some LB depth earlier than the 6th to make that move more likely. I like Holloman, too, though.
  3. tm1119

    tm1119 Well-Known Member

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    Good read and everything is very reasonable. My main concern would be that your 1st 5 picks are all undersized. I'm good with the Donald and Ellington picks, but I'm not sure I want to invest our 2nd , 3rd, and 5th round picks on undersized tweeners. I know all of them are talented, I'm just not sure where they find a home in our D.
  4. RS12

    RS12 Well-Known Member

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    It is not a bad mock but my critique would be you are tending to look more needs based than BPA. I think a highly rate O Lineman falls and could easily be the pick in round 2 or even 1. Also while I dont argue the Ellington value, I do think they take a WR but it will be somebody larger who can also play outside with a higher upside.
  5. xwalker

    xwalker Well-Known Member

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    Restructures:Romo, Ware(with pay cut of about 3m this year and next), Lee --~6m in cap space March 11th.
    June 1st cut: Miles adds 5.5m to cap space.
    I think 9.25M is still too much for Ware, but I can live with it as long as they don't guarantee his 2015 salary as part of the deal. The other option would be to offer him 6M in 2014 and 6M in 2015 with both year guaranteed.

    I as Dallas refuse to chase anyone in free agency. --this team isn't one player away.
    I believe they will sit tight and and wait for the draft first.
    If they chase free agents it will likely be under a new coach in 2015 imho.
    They should be open to free agents, but they don't need to force the issue. Seattle was able to get great deals on Avril and Bennett last year because they let free agency come to them instead of overpaying on day one of free agency. They should only give significant money to YOUNG free agents (i.e. 28 and younger).

    Going to posit they bring Spencer back.
    Staff has always loved the player and he is too hurt to chase riches.
    Incentive-laden 1 year deal that starts at vet minimum.
    Incentives are very easy to add (and very cap friendly) since he played less than 2 full games last year.
    I 'think' they can do a reverse of last year and get Spencer back on the field by week 2 or 3 as a back up SDE.
    A 1 year deal that starts at the veteran minimum would be fine; although, I would guarantee anything until after training camp is over and he's had a chance to show that he can play. It's about 50-50 that he ever plays again. They should not change any of their draft or free agency plans in the Spring based on having Spencer playing.

    Draft:
    Rd 1: Aaron Donald --Donald is a day 1 starter at 3T. His size is WAYYY overblown. This defense relies on quick twitch guys at DL and Donald is that in spades.
    Yes, his size if fine for Marinelli's defense; however, it is an issue for many teams. It's highly doubtful that a team like the Giants would draft him and he is not a fit for 3-4 teams. If the Cowboys don't draft him at #16, there is a good chance that he falls to the mid twenties.

    Rd 2: Lamarcus Joyner --Small but huge playing making safety. A lot like JJ Wilcox but knows how to actually play the position. Can be the nickel cover guy if Scandrick plays outside once you release Carr in a year or so.
    This is the type of player where I would wait to see if he falls to the 3rd round. The NFL is getting more and more monster sized WRs and athletic pass catching TEs. A 5'8 DB in the 2nd round is not really an ideal way to deal with that trend.

    Rd 3: Jeremiah Attaochu --speed rusher/WDE back up. Potential to grow into starter status.
    OK.

    Rd 4: Bruce Ellington --WR not a huge need but a great value here. Essentially a better Beasley here. Very strong though not very tall. Love ex Point Guards because they know how to maximize quickness to get open.
    Meh. He is 5-9. The Cowboys already have Beasley and Harris. They really need another big, outside receiver. Who plays if Dez or TWill gets injured.

    Rd 5: George Uko --One of my sleepers and late round pet cats. Explosive guy who can play 3T and SDE. Comes from a rotation system and probably best there as a back up in NFL.
    Yes, I love this guys motor. He has decent athleticism. I see him as a 3-tech much more than an SDE. Splitting the gaps which he does well is a different skill than bending the corner on the outside.

    Rd 6: we will have a pick here somehow, team won't go 70 or so picks between players with all the 7th round ammo they'll have after comps are announced.... Denicos Allen--Telvin Smith type player who you can afford to wait on this late in the draft. Special teamer and nickel backer year 1.
    Allen is an interesting player. A college LB at the same 218 lbs as Tevin Smith, although, he is 4 inches shorter than Smith.

    Check out Kevin Pierre-Louis as a similar LB that looks like a Safety but is closer to LB size at 6'0, 232.

    Rd 7: a) Aaron Colvin --value pick with big upside. future pick.
    It would be best to just keep him on IR all season. He is only 177 lbs so he's going to need time to bulk up. I wouldn't be surprised to see him be available as a UDFA, but the Cowboys have extra 7th rounders, so why not.

    b) Trey Millard --Not an OU fan but the back to back 7th here are extreme value. Milliard a far better player than any FB we've had. Can catch and can run. Plays out of backfield comfortable which our TEs have struggled with.
    I think this is what teams will look for in modern Fullbacks. He is an excellent receiver and at 6-2 can cross over with some things they do with the TEs.

    c) Spencer Long --another injury special. Long is type of guy Garrett loves. Checks all the boxes and can be developed as top interior back up.
    Good pick if available.

    QB --should be appealing as we have a roster spot begging to be had and the number 2 job is readily available in short order.
    Jeff Matthews, Cornell
    Bcrav4 likes this.
  6. tm1119

    tm1119 Well-Known Member

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    50/50 that Anthony Spencer ever plays football again? Where are you getting this information from?
  7. jterrell

    jterrell Penguinite

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    first thanks all for the comments.

    traction: again nothing here sexy so expected to largely draw nonchalance.
    this really is pretty boring as a one year plan and only looks good in context of 2 or 3 years from now.

    various notes across posts:
    size issues: definitely went for speed over size. team has noted it wants speed galore; especially up front.
    think a big body 1 tech might be in the offing if value is right in later rounds but didn't find the right guy in my limited selections. --only had about 15 guys per selection to choose from.
    not oppose dot ol at all and honestly i'd like to get at least 1 out of the draft class.
    but if i see a dl that plays 20 snaps a game next year or an ol that only plays due tp injury its tough for me to lean that way.
    wr: fair point about what dallas wants versus what i want... i think we are badly in need of a true slot guy. dallas likes bigger outside WRs.

    xw gave me so much there i'll respond seperately.
  8. xwalker

    xwalker Well-Known Member

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    He had micro-fracture surgery. Many players never return after that procedure. They Cowboys have had at least 2 players get that surgery and they were never even able to attempt a comeback. It's an all or nothing that of procedure. If it doesn't work, no amount of time will make it better.
  9. tm1119

    tm1119 Well-Known Member

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    Ehh I think you are being a little over dramatic with that. There are plenty of success stories with microfracture surgery. I will give you that its risky and some guys don't always come back, but 50/50 to ever play football again is overstating it for sure.
  10. jterrell

    jterrell Penguinite

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    XW:

    Ware: Trying to find middle ground between Ware and club is just a guess. Jerry is talking tough but I think both sides win from a compromise.

    Spencer: No issues there. He's a big win if he helps but you can't count on him in 2014.

    Donald: Gonna have to agree to disagree here. I think his size is wayyy overblown. Could use 7-10 pounds of muscle which is nothing to add entering the NFL.
    I think all our DL added that much weight. Nick Hayden came out at 291!!
    His explosion numbers are at hall of fame caliber. Truly off the charts impressive. Best 40 time by a DT that I can EVER find. 35 reps of 225, broad jump is off the charts high for a DT.
    And this kid is no workout wonder. He dominated the Senior Bowl practices AND game. After being arguably the best DL in NCAA football.
    Teams move around in the draft so just because a team isn't sitting there with Donald as their prototype DT doesn't mean he won't go if you try to get smart.
    I'd love to trade down and get the guy but boy is that a risky move.
    I'd be more shocked if he fell to 25 then if he went top 15.

    FA: Yea, they'll sign some players for sure. I expect more Justin Durant's tho and less the once this past 5 years Carr type signing.

    Draft: No worries there, no two people are gonna draft exactly the same for 7 rounds.
    Uko note: He played SDE some at USC. Not a guy you want taking every snap there but you can use him some there.
    Very much a Seattle type SDE. Explosive but direct.
  11. jterrell

    jterrell Penguinite

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    there is more than one type of microfracture procedure.
    spencer had this for his left knee.
    in today's world it isn't really considered career-threatening.

    http://www.nlm.nih.gov/medlineplus/ency/article/007255.htm

    but getting him back next year playing at a high level is a huge question mark.
    it is generally a year process to get back to high level sports.

    because dallas paid spencer so well in 2012 and 2013 he isn't exactly clawing for survival.
    he could ease into retirement at age 30 if he chose and be fine financially.
    i wouldn't guarantee him any money as you mention until he shows he both wants to and can play at a high level.
  12. xwalker

    xwalker Well-Known Member

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    They could use Uko like they did with Wynn last year. He can play 3-tech in passing situations and DE in running situations.
  13. Macnalty

    Macnalty Well-Known Member

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    I agree with all of your comments, especially on Covin(will not play this year) and Millard FB(Sean Lee on offense)who are both from OU. I see Connor Shaw QB falling way down the ladder, he is a coaches son and has some Romo early days in his dna would be nice addition to our FA vet we pick up.
    I agree also with the 50/50 microfracture that player comes back to 100% it is just not physical but also mental that one can trust that knee. I put the odds about the same as Romo's back. Last year Romo was clearly comprised and I expect him to be somewhat less this year, book it that all the defenses will be gunning for him and checking to see how many business decisions he makes during the game. Rumours from Brian Broadus and Mickey is that Spencer is still barely walking around VRanch.

    LaMarcus Joyner showed his speed at the combine and it is similar to Barry Churches which really limits him in coverage, I do agree he is a talent but one without the prerequisite of speed for FS/CB. Third rd for him would be a steal IMO.
    I sure like a couple of players that TM119 touts in Chris Smith and Marcus Smith DE's. Chris having the extremely long arms and lower center of gravity and Marcus being more prototypical.
  14. xwalker

    xwalker Well-Known Member

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    I hadn't looked at Joyner's time. I see he ran a 4.55 forty which is not good for a 5'7-7/8" tall player. I didn't like him as a 2nd round pick when I thought he was going to run a low 4.4.

    It's really hard to predict Romo's back issue because there are so many variations of what can be wrong in that area. I actually think the probably of it not bothering him is fairly high based on the reports that I've seen of the specific issue. I've known people that had similar procedures and it was basically an instantaneous fix. It's like a Jelly donut with a leak. They fix the leak and everything is good. It's the people whose "donut" is destroyed that have big problems. In that situation, they have to remove the "donut" and fuse the bones together. Daryl Johnson and Charles Haley had that procedure. Haley might have had more than 1 disk fused. Jerry said that he went from 6-4 to 6-2 after the surgery.

    With regards to Colvin, I like the idea of being able to stash players on IR. Injury or not, most late round picks are not really ready to be significant contributors as rookies which forces the team to make difficult decisions on the cut down day. It's too bad I'm not a bigger fan of the injured QBs because that would be a good way to get one without having to carry 3 on the roster.

    Why do you like Connor Shaw? He is an interesting late round guy. He similar size and athleticism to Johnny and appears to be fairly accurate even on the run. I'm not sure about his arm strength and he sometimes has a slow release.
  15. LatinMind

    LatinMind iPhotoshop

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    You mention Melton coming off a injury that is already running in his rehab. But want to bring in Spencer who is still on crutches? You will say its for a 1 yr deal. He's hurt and theres a possibility that he wont even be ready for the start of the yr. He's one of Jerry Jones' favorites but McClay has Jerrys ear these days and McClay has made it know he doesnt want to pay for guys who wont be available every week.

    Ware is not going to be on the team with a restructure. Jerry himself implied this. He is either going to have to take that paycut or get cut. I could see something like what Baltimore did with Suggs happening.

    Scandrick will be restructured, thats why they extended him last yr for this specific purpose.

    Your views on FA arent out of wack, but they will be players in FA. Stephen Jones said they will. They will be going into FA looking at DL. He literally came out and said this at the combine. He didnt say a big signing or not. But they will be signing DL in FA.

    Draft

    Donald - he would be a fit for Dallas. But at 16 a player like Martin or Lewan would be picked over Donald all day. Defense is important but without Romo this team isnt going anywhere. Martin or Lewan would be a better safer pick. There is no team behind Dallas in RD1 that would take Donald. Not 1 team. Im sure is Martin and/or Lewan are there at 16 there would be a team wanting to trade up. With a trade down i can see Donald being the pick.

    Joyner - waste of a pick IMO. He isnt going to start anywhere. He isnt going to start over Church or Wilcox or Heath. This team really likes what they have in Wilcox and Heath. Wether fans accept it or not. One of them 2 will be starting in 2014. Draft a RD2 CB to be your 4th CB?

    Ellington - Dallas doesnt need anymore short WRs. They need somebody who can stretch the field and play the outside in the NFL. I dont think there is any WR they can pick in RD 3 down that will play over Beasely.

    Uko is just one of those guys who teams wont know what to do with. Not much a passrusher to play DE, and not strong enough to put inside. ST guy
  16. LatinMind

    LatinMind iPhotoshop

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    Told you he would be restructured. Dallas isnt going to lay low. Jerry himself said Romo's window is closing. If he thinks this team can be a contender he's going to spend. Right or Wrong he does everything he can to win. Doesnt always work but nobody can ever say he's just pocketing the money.
  17. rkell87

    rkell87 Well-Known Member

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    great post, well thought out, sensible....which means none of it will happen lol
  18. jterrell

    jterrell Penguinite

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    Read OP on Ware. You aren't saying anything I didn't. I suggested a paycut.

    Picking Donald over Lewan or Martin is a near certainty for Dallas. You may not agree but you are not paying attention if you believe otherwise.

    Joyner: Joyner is a far better football player than any Dallas safety. He's proven that on the field. But no issues waiting to see here. Dallas can force in Heath or Wilcox but that's what they did last year with disastrous results. Unless they just really enjoy unemployment it makes zero sense. I wonder what Dallas' record would have been last year with the Honey Badger at safety over Heath/Wilcox?

    Ellington is a FAR, FAR better player than Beasley. It isn't even close. If you do not understand that you need to do a lot more research.

    Uko: Somewhat fair critique. Except teams will know what to do with him. He's a rotational pass rusher.

    FA Stephen has stated they won't be big players in FA, that signing high-priced guys is overrated.

    Scandrick: I wouldn't have restructured him because he is going to want more money real soon. Having a final balloon payment due makes it tough to have any leverage and puts us in a Romo-like situation from last year. But yes he was widely forecast as a restructure all along. Fortunately they haven't restructured everyone who was forecast thusly.
  19. LatinMind

    LatinMind iPhotoshop

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    I dont agree because of whats being said by the Jones'. Saying they wont reach for a DT if there are better OL available. Couple that with all the OL they've cut, and triple that with wanting to keep Romo healthy. They could draft Donald but they wont at 16. Because drafting Donald is a reach there considering if Dallas doesnt pick him, he's probably going to fall all the way to probably tampa in RD2. This isnt about Donald isnt good enough, its about reach for a player they dont need to take that high and passing up a bigger piece. Trading down to grab Donald is a better choice by 1 million percent. If Martin, Lewan, Barr or Mosely are there at 16, you can bet Dallas phones will be ringing. And i could also see them picking either one of those guys over Donald.

    Joyner is 5'9 hasnt played in the NFL and all of the sudden he's even better then Church? Unrealistic much?

    Beasley has been doing it in the NFL. Can you wait to annoint all these players better then guys already in the NFL?

    I have not heard stephen say they wont be big players. What i have heard him say is with them not knowing what the cap would be they didnt know how much they would have or what they would be able to do in FA. But he did say they would be going into FA to get DTs. Hell i'd take McDonald over a undersized rookie. Just because Donald is able to push around weak opponents in the ACC and Pitts tough schedule against the Navys and New Mexico States of the NCAA doesnt mean he'll be able to do it in the NFL. He's fast off the snap, but So are the G's in the NFL.

    Scandrick contract isnt big, in 2015 he will make 4.5 mil in 2016 a shade under 4. Restructuring Scandrick was a really smart move.
  20. Macnalty

    Macnalty Well-Known Member

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    Connor Shaw is a football player, son of a coach, he will be a 6 or 7th rd pick so there is not much exposure, I have a hard time throwing a 3rd pick for Murray or MaCarron. Shaw is a real fighter which is a problem sometimes as he is always going for that extra yard. He will be a backup with mobility I hope and smart about football. I also like the QB from Wyoming Wright although he runs a little bit like Manute Bol and not much difference in height.
    I hope you are correct on the back issue for Tony, just seems we did not see his best last year after the "cyst on his back" drama, new QB is on the horizon no doubt.

    Who are the middle round receivers you are liking this year? Watch this kid Jeff Janis 6'3" and ran a 4.4 good hands will probably be available in the 6th and 7th rd from Saginaw State.

    I am really not sure who are the good fit ILB and OLB for our team if you have any insight post it when you can.

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