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Moscow’s Sinister Brilliance

Discussion in 'Political Zone' started by PosterChild, Aug 12, 2008.

  1. PosterChild

    PosterChild New Member

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    By Victor Davis Hanson

    Lost amid all the controversies surrounding the Georgian tragedy is the sheer diabolic brilliance of the long-planned Russia invasion. Let us count the ways in which it is a win/win situation for Russia.

    The Home Front
    The long-suffering Russian people resent the loss of global influence and empire, but not necessarily the Soviet Union and its gulags that once ensured such stature. The invasion restores a sense of Russian nationalism and power to its populace without the stink of Stalinism, and is indeed cloaked as a sort of humanitarian intervention on behalf of beleaguered Ossetians.

    There will be no Russian demonstrations about an “illegal war,” much less nonsense about “blood for oil,” but instead rejoicing at the payback of an uppity former province that felt its Western credentials somehow trumped Russian tanks. How ironic that the Western heartthrob, the old Marxist Mikhail Gorbachev, is now both lamenting Western encouragement of Georgian “aggression,” while simultaneously gloating over the return of Russian military daring.

    Sinister Timing
    Russia’s only worry is the United States, which currently has a lame-duck president with low approval ratings, and is exhausted after Afghanistan and Iraq. But more importantly, America’s attention is preoccupied with a presidential race, in which “world citizen” Barack Obama has mesmerized Europe as the presumptive new president and soon-to-be disciple of European soft power.

    Better yet for Russia, instead of speaking with one voice, America is all over the map with three reactions from Bush, McCain, and Obama — all of them mutually contradictory, at least initially. Meanwhile, the world’s televisions are turned toward the Olympics in Beijing. The autocratic Chinese, busy jailing reporters and dissidents, are not about to say an unkind word about Russian intervention. If anything, the pageantry at their grandiose stadiums provides welcome distractions for those embarrassed over the ease with which Russia smothered Georgia.

    Comeuppance
    Most importantly, Putin and Medvedev have called the West’s bluff. We are sort of stuck in a time-warp of the 1990s, seemingly eons ago in which a once-earnest weak post-Soviet Russia sought Western economic help and political mentoring. But those days are long gone, and diplomacy hasn’t caught up with the new realities. Russia is flush with billions. It serves as a rallying point and arms supplier to thugs the world over that want leverage in their anti-Western agendas. For the last five years, its foreign policy can be reduced to “Whatever the United States is for, we are against.”

    The geopolitical message is clear to both the West and the former Soviet Republics: don’t consider NATO membership (i.e., do the Georgians really think that, should they have been NATO members, any succor would have been forthcoming?).

    Together with the dismal NATO performance in Afghanistan, the Georgian incursion reveals the weakness of the Atlantic Alliance. The tragic irony is unmistakable. NATO was given a gift in not having made Georgia a member, since otherwise an empty ritual of evoking Article V’s promise of mutual assistance in time of war would have effectively destroyed the Potemkin alliance.

    The new reality is that a nuclear, cash-rich, and energy-blessed Russia doesn’t really worry too much whether its long-term future is bleak, given problems with Muslim minorities, poor life-expectancy rates, and a declining population. Instead, in the here and now, it has a window of opportunity to reclaim prestige and weaken its adversaries. So why hesitate?

    Indeed, tired of European lectures, the Russians are now telling the world that soft power is, well, soft. Moscow doesn’t give a damn about the United Nations, the European Union, the World Court at the Hague, or any finger-pointing moralist from Geneva or London. Did anyone in Paris miss any sleep over the rubble of Grozny?

    More likely, Putin & Co. figure that any popular rhetoric about justice will be trumped by European governments’ concern for energy. With just a few tanks and bombs, in one fell swoop, Russia has cowered its former republics, made them think twice about joining the West, and stopped NATO and maybe EU expansion in their tracks. After all, who wants to die for Tbilisi?

    Russia does not need a global force-projection capacity; it has sufficient power to muscle its neighbors and thereby humiliate not merely its enemies, but their entire moral pretensions as well.

    Apologists in the West
    The Russians have sized up the moral bankruptcy of the Western Left. They know that half-a-million Europeans would turn out to damn their patron the United States for removing a dictator and fostering democracy, but not more than a half-dozen would do the same to criticize their long-time enemy from bombing a constitutional state.


    The Russians rightly expect Westerners to turn on themselves, rather than Moscow — and they won’t be disappointed. Imagine the morally equivalent fodder for liberal lament: We were unilateral in Iraq, so we can’t say Russia can’t do the same to Georgia. (As if removing a genocidal dictator is the same as attacking a democracy). We accepted Kosovo’s independence, so why not Ossetia’s? (As if the recent history of Serbia is analogous to Georgia’s.) We are still captive to neo-con fantasies about democracy, and so encouraged Georgia’s efforts that provoked the otherwise reasonable Russians (As if the problem in Ossetia is our principled support for democracy rather than appeasement of Russian dictatorship).

    From what the Russians learned of the Western reaction to Iraq, they expect their best apologists will be American politicians, pundits, professors, and essayists — and once more they will not be disappointed. We are a culture, after all, that after damning Iraqi democracy as too violent, broke, and disorganized, is now damning Iraqi democracy as too conniving, rich, and self-interested — the only common denominator being whatever we do, and whomever we help, cannot be good.

    Power-power
    We talk endlessly about “soft” and “hard” power as if humanitarian jawboning, energized by economic incentives or sanctions, is the antithesis to mindless military power. In truth, there is soft power, hard power, and power-power — the latter being the enormous advantages held by energy rich, oil-exporting states. Take away oil and Saudi Arabia would be the world’s rogue state, with its medieval practice of gender apartheid. Take away oil and Ahmadinejad is analogous to a run-of-the-mill central African thug. Take away oil, and Chavez is one of Ronald Reagan’s proverbial tinhorn dictators.

    Russia understands that Europe needs its natural gas, that the U.S. not only must be aware of its own oil dependency, but, more importantly, the ripples of its military on the fragility of world oil supplies, especially the effects upon China, Europe, India, and Japan. When one factors in Russian oil and gas reserves, a pipeline through Georgia, the oil dependency of potential critics of Putin, and the cash garnered by oil exports, then we understand once again that power-power is beginning to trump both its hard and soft alternatives.

    Paralysis
    Military intervention is out of the question. Economic sanctions, given Russia’s oil and Europe’s need for it, are a pipe dream. Diplomatic ostracism and moral stricture won’t even save face.

    Instead, Europe — both western and eastern — along with the United States and the concerned former Soviet Republics need to sit down, conference, and plot exactly how these new democracies are to maintain their independence and autonomy in the next decade. Hopefully, they will reach the Franklinesque conclusion that “We must, indeed, all hang together, or most assuredly we shall all hang separately.”

    http://article.nationalreview.com/print/?q=MDcwY2I4MjhjMTc0Y2Y4ZmJmMWNmNzJlOTA0Y2MxYjg=
  2. zrinkill

    zrinkill Diamond surrounded by trash

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    I really hate when something this bad is so true.
  3. neosapien23

    neosapien23 Well-Known Member

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    I hate to say it as well, but the looney left is the whole reason I got out of the military. Some people are so dumb that they don't deserve freedom. I was not going to get killed to make sure those people could stay free when they continually bash our coutry.

    Not all dissent is treason, but all treason is dissent.
  4. yeahyeah

    yeahyeah New Member

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    Hey, at the end of the day the Georgians made a power move and the Russians spanked them for it.
    Furthermore if they thought we were gonna go rushing to their aide they were high.
    1) we have our hands full
    2) no oil...no love...unless you are Sudanese...then you still get no love.
  5. AtlCB

    AtlCB Active Member

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    Did you get that from MoveOn.org?
  6. PosterChild

    PosterChild New Member

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    Of course not!

    Pravda
  7. AtlCB

    AtlCB Active Member

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    :lmao2:
  8. yeahyeah

    yeahyeah New Member

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    Yes and the Socialist Workers Daily :rolleyes:
  9. yeahyeah

    yeahyeah New Member

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    What is that? Gay site? I dont get the joke.
  10. iceberg

    iceberg detoxed Zone Supporter

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    russia isn't stupid. they may be wrong, they may be killing w/o mercy, they may be doing a lot of things but the timing of which they did it was perfect.
  11. iceberg

    iceberg detoxed Zone Supporter

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    i think we intentionally breed stupid people these days.

    your 4.5 mil pop doesn't make a power move on 145mil people. and if you were going to do it you don't do it with your only real ally to count on is tied up in matters that will put you low on the list of priorities. so while i agree we're not going to be able to go rushing to their aid, you're missing a bigger point completely in your mad rush to be flippant.

    you ever notice what oil line goes through georgia?

    i'll never for the life of me understand people who simply refuse to think and let cliches guide them through life.
  12. yeahyeah

    yeahyeah New Member

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    Oh....insults



    1) They Dont?? Thats odd? What do you call firing rockets and sending in tanks? To an already tense area containing Russian peacekeepers?

    2) Thus my original statement...once again..(I do this alot on here) "Hey, at the end of the day the Georgians made a power move and the Russians spanked them for it."

    3) Flippant? Well I guess what is flippant to one is just open honesty to another. I am just being honest...particularly about the innocent civilians, dont you agree? Or is mentioning their suffering flippant as well?

    4) Oh boy..more foggy questions and mind reading..a little clarity please. let me just take a shot in the dark at this one. This one? There are quite a few actually. Point?

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/world/europe/321852.stm


    5) I am so sorry professor I will try to be less flippant and cliche in the future.


    They were seriously being considered for a new spot in NATO(Which Russia warned them about joining in 07)..They have the new pipeline(energy independence...bigger revenue)...They HAD troops in Iraq..big western allies(they thought)...but they got punked.
    They just couldnt wait..they just couldnt sit on their hands. Now the innocent suffer...this could have all been avoided..if they were not the aggressors.
  13. AtlCB

    AtlCB Active Member

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    It might be. It's run by a bunch of far left liberals! :lmao2:
  14. neosapien23

    neosapien23 Well-Known Member

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    This is all over a piece of land that does not want to be a part of Russia. The Russians do not want Georgia to have so much control over the oil pipeline since they are allies of the west. Russia gave people in another country citizenship to their country just so they would have an exuse to meddle in their affairs. I would respect you alot more if you were screaming no war for oil, and calling Putin a dictator. I find it funny how the far left redicules our President and they stays absolutely quiet on matters like this and takes the side of the enemy. Make no mistake about, Putin has done everything in his power to undermine us on several occassions.
  15. yeahyeah

    yeahyeah New Member

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    1) This is about Ossetia and Abkhazia which do not want to be a part of Georgia.

    2) Cant disagree with that or the fact that Russia doesnt want Georgia or Ukraine to join NATO..does that justify rocketing your own city with Russian troops in there?

    3) Its Medvedev, he is President now but for all intents and purposes but I get the gist.

    4) The president AND the EU who are just as spineless in matters that count.

    5) This is the my MAIN point..who FIRST attacked whom? Who pre-emptively attacked whom? The Georgians were warned..not to attack South Ossetia. There were Russian peacekeepers in the area. Yet what did they do?
    Man If I have a dog and I tell you..dont come in the yard...and you do..and he bites you..who is stupid? Whose fault is it? You were warned..so were they.
  16. iceberg

    iceberg detoxed Zone Supporter

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    and everyone you disagree with is just a liar?

    sorry, when you play the "i'm keeping it real" card, you're clueless.
  17. arglebargle

    arglebargle Well-Known Member

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    I really don't think the Russkies snuck in spys to Tbilisi who secretly pushed the "Invade Ossetia" button. Don't know what the Georgia government was thinking would happen when they invaded.

    Bottom line, no move into Ossetia, none of this occurs. Now obviously the Russians had contingency plans, and threw them into action. Ruthless power politics. Absolutely. Unexpected? - Really?
  18. yeahyeah

    yeahyeah New Member

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    :clap2:
  19. zrinkill

    zrinkill Diamond surrounded by trash

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    What country is South Ossetia part of?

    And is this the same place that Terrorist killed those 300 children a few years ago at the school?
  20. iceberg

    iceberg detoxed Zone Supporter

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    like zrin pointed out, how can a military move into it's own terratory and be threatening?

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