My Pre-Combine Mock Draft

Discussion in 'Draft Zone' started by TheCount, Feb 8, 2008.

  1. TheCount

    TheCount Pixel Pusher

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    1a. Aqib Talib, CB (Kansas, 6'2" , 205 lbs)

    I'd prefer Leodis McKelvin, but he'll probably be the first CB off the board, chances are Talib might be as well, but I'll hold out hope. He's a big, smart corner that plays the ball well enough to have seen a few snaps at WR (13 ints in 3 years). We've got a solid cover corner in Newman, and Henry who makes plays on the ball but may be slowing down sooner than later, I'd love to keep a play maker opposite Newman so when they throw away from him, they throw right into trouble.

    (ALT: Leodis McKlevin, CB / Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, CB)

    1b. James Hardy, WR (Indiana, 6'6", 220 lbs)

    The guy is a freak of nature, and people have stated his height as anything from 6'5" to 6'7". Reminds me a lot of Plaxico, and you'd think he'd be no deep threat but he just seems to get faster as he goes down the field, and he can catch the ball when it gets there. Has no problem with the jam either and would offer Romo another big target in the endzone. He's also a tough, no-nonsense guy, which is rare at the WR position. He may be a little bit of a reach in the 1st, but if we don't get him here, we don't get him period.

    (ALT: Limas Sweed, WR / Early Doucet, WR / Felix Jones, RB)

    2. Ray Rice, RB (Rutgers, 5'9", 205 lbs)

    I like in NY, so I've heard plenty about Ray, and I'm sold on him. He's a little on the small side, but I agree with those that say he may be the most NFL ready back in the draft. He's patient, strong and has a huge heart. My only concern is he may be the type of guy that needs the ball 15+ times to have a big impact on the game.

    (ALT: Chris Johnson, RB / Jamaal Charles, RB / Devin Thomas, WR)

    3. Tavares Gooden, ILB (Miami, 6'2", 238 lbs)

    Like Rice, may be a little undersized but he's a baller. Has experience at every LB position, but would be a good fit for us at ILB. He also comes from the same college with a good track record when it comes to LB's. He's not much of a blitzer, which is a little bit of a knock, but he's capable in coverage and his motor never stops.

    (ALT: Phillip Wheeler, ILB)

    4. Owen Schmitt, FB (West Virginia, 6'3", 260 lbs)

    We all know and love Owen, he's just nasty. Could excel in short yardage as well alla Mike Alstott. I like Deon, but he's not a bruiser.

    (ALT: Donald Thomas, OG)

    5. Donald Thomas, OG (Connecticut, 6'3", 292 lbs)

    If we take Owen, I'll hope Donald falls down here. He's not as beefy as most of the guys on our line, and that may be just what we need, someone a little more flexible. I doubt he lasts till the fifth, but once again, I'm hoping.

    (ALT: Frank Okam, DT / Ahtyba Rubin, DT)

    6. Matt Flynn, QB (LSU, 6'2", 228 lbs)

    To be honest I don't know a lot about Flynn, we do need a backup for Romo though but taking one too early is a little silly with a young QB (and his large contract) already on the roster. It'd be nice to have someone ready when Brad calls it a night though. My only knock is that he's a little on the short side, but he is about the same size as Romo, we've all seen Romo get a ball or two knocked down at the line though.

    7. Dexter Jackson, WR (Appalachian State, 5'9", 178 lbs)

    Speed guy who is on the small side but could help us immediately in special teams and might develop into something of a slot receiver. As a 7th round pick, there's not much risk here, but his stock as been rising since he took Doucet's play in the Senior Bowl practices, so he very well might get picked as high as the 5th round.

    Comments, criticisms and suggestions are welcome.
  2. silverbear

    silverbear Semi-Official Loose Cannon

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    Uhhh, no... not with Hudson Houck coaching the offensive line... the Boys are more likely to draft a 350 pounder than a 290 pounder...

    Thomas is nowhere near big enough to succeed in a Hudson Houck designed blocking scheme... Houck was more of a George Hegamin/Shane Hannah kind of guy in the later rounds...

    It's the only real knock I have on your mock... I have taken every offensive lineman who is not a legit 310 pounds off of my draft board, since the Boys hired Hud...
  3. SDogo

    SDogo Not as good as I once was but as good once as I ev

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    I would be thrilled if the draft played out that way. I hear what Silverbear is saying but Thomas will weigh in around 310-315 at work outs and it reasonable to belive he will pack on a additional 10 pounds before the season. With his athletic ability he could easily play around 325-330 with out losing anything. My point was, he is not as light as it's stating right now.
  4. theogt

    theogt Surrealist Zone Supporter

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    I'm not big on Talib or Hardy.
  5. burmafrd

    burmafrd Benched

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  6. 03EBZ06

    03EBZ06 Need2Speed

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    Pretty good mock but I think Talib will be long gone so I'd like to see us pick Cason with #22. I'd be elated if we get R. Rice with our second round pick but I'm not so sure if he'll be there.
  7. theogt

    theogt Surrealist Zone Supporter

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    I'd bet Talib falls to the 2nd actually.
  8. TheCount

    TheCount Pixel Pusher

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    He's young, tall and won't be playing much, if at all, next season (assuming we drafted him), so that's plenty of time to put on 10-15 lbs. I'm sure he'll weigh in over 300 at the combine, and he'd have a year to gain another 10 and figure out how to play with the extra weight.

    I've got no problem with Cason, meant to put him as an alternative with the 1b pick if we take Felix with the 1a pick.

    What makes you think that? Curious.
  9. Bigdog

    Bigdog Well-Known Member

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    As other posters have said I am not big on Talib. Might be too slow to play CB in the NFL but I could be wrong. I would like to have McKelvin if he is there but I do not think he will. If not, I would not mind DRC or Cason(especially if he runs sub 4.4 forty).
  10. Woods

    Woods Well-Known Member

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    I tend to agree with you as well.

    Aqib Talib CB Kansas

    Aqib has good size, strength and speed to play his position. He has strong hands to intercept passes. He shows solid overall cover skills and does a good job defending in zone coverage. Aqib seems to be very opportunistic; he looks for the interception and takes advantage of any mistakes made by a receiver or QB in the passing game. Aqib is a solid tackler and does not shy away from contact. He looks for the big hit and the critical turnover.

    Right now, Aqib is working off the fact that he is smart and knows how to bait QB’s and coordinators into making mistakes. He is a good athlete, but makes most of his big plays while playing zone coverage with his face to the play. Aqib is not a quick player and his one-on-one coverage skills are questionable. He has also had some character and maturity issues that need to be addressed. He is fast, but he lacks the quickness to be a true man-on-man cover CB. He has the skills and straight line speed to be a hell of a Single Free Safety who can cover a TE or roam from sideline to sideline!

    Personally, I feel that Aqib’s natural position is Free Safety for the next level. He reminds me a lot of Ed Reed (FS Baltimore Ravens), but without the leadership skills. Aqib is very good as long as the play is in front of him. As a CB, he can be taken advantage of very easily because he is stubborn and is always looking for the big play, while taking too many chances without the needed true quickness to win a big percentage of those battles. From his play on the field, I don’t see any of these issues improving anytime soon. A smart coach will not try to change him, but will take advantage of Aqib’s natural ball-hawking skills and play him at the Free Safety position. He will impact a lot faster as a FS then he ever will impact as a CB. There is no doubt in my mind about this. If you try to make him a CB, you are opening your defense up to a player who will make as many big plays as he lets up and that is not a good situation. As a Free Safety, Aqib becomes an impact player as soon as you draft him and will help the first year as a nickel/dime cover safety and on special teams as a return man. Aqib will have to mature on and off the field, but he has talent to play at the next level and to impact. The only person that will stop this from happening is Aqib himself. Remember it takes more than talent to play at the NFL level.
  11. marchetta

    marchetta Well-Known Member

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    1a. Aqib Talib, CB (Kansas, 6'2" , 205 lbs)

    Aqib is not going to project well as a NFL CB. Most teams will project him as a FS. He doesn't have the quickness to be a NFL CB. He will be a great FS though. Drew Boylhart says that because he likes to gamble, and keep the play in front of him, he's going to make an Ed Reed type impact as some teams FS. However, he doesn't have the quickness, quick-twitch muscles, recovery speed, or technique to make up for all the mistakes he'll make as a CB. His attributes and style of play would get him eaten alive as a NFL CB, but those same attributes and style of play would make him a great FS. So, if we lose Hamlin, and want an impact FS, he's the best one out there. And yes, he'll be a better FS than the kid from the U (can't remember his name).

    ALT: Leodis McKlevin, CB / Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, CB

    McKelvin may end up being the top rated CB in this draft after the combine. He has great technique and probably the quickest feet of any CB to enter the league in years. However, he isn't that instinctive and his hands aren't that good. You can depend on him to be in position to break up a lot of passes, but he's never going to get a lot of picks because he can't anticipate what a WR is going to do, and he doesn't have the hands. Anyway, he'll be long gone before we pick.

    may be there for us, because he's played mostly against lesser opponents, some teams may be wary of him, and allow him to slip down to us. Drew Boylhart says DRC has to potential to be the best CB in the entire NFL. He has dominating ability. Drew calls him the R.Moss of CBs.

    Don't forget aboutM.Jenkins. He's a very physical CB. He has good technique and is a great tackler. He's really tough, and has good speed. He'll probably end up the 2nd ranked CB, and will also be gone before our pick.

    Also, don't forget about Cason. If he runs well at the combine he should go in the 1st rd. He has everything else a CB needs. However, Drew has heard that many teams don't consider him a 1st rd value. This really seems to have Drew perplexed. So, he'll probably be rated a 2nd rd value by many teams regardless of how well he runs. Go figure.

    1b. James Hardy, WR (Indiana, 6'6", 220 lbs)

    Hardy's the best WR in this draft bar none. Earlier, Drew Boylhart thought he reminded him of an even bigger version of R.Moss. I thought he looked like Plax. Drew recently reviewed more film, and calls JH a better/tougher version of Plax. He says JH is "Plax w/o the skirt." He says JH looks like Plax, but is tougher and a better deep threat. He says JH's stride is so long, that he'll outrun "faster" CB for the deep ball. So, disregard JH's 40 time, it doesn't matter. He'll beat most NFL CBs deep, and he will be an unstoppable deepthreat. Drew believes he's going to have a R.Moss type impact on defenses. The only thing that can cause teams to put a 2nd rd grade on him is his character. He is a tough no-nonsense type guy, and I believe he was arrested a few years ago on domestic violence. So, the character/personality issue may scare off some teams from using their #1 pick on him. But if we want him, we'd better get him in the 1st, because he'll be gone at the top of the 2nd.

    ALT: Limas Sweed, WR / Early Doucet, WR / Felix Jones, RB)

    ALL these guys are 2nd-3rd round talents. We will not be picking ANY of them in the 1st rd. While we pick for needs, we also pick for value. Dallas sets up their boards based on grades, and none of these guys carries a 1st rd grade. So, while they represent a need position, Dallas would never choose them. Dallas would either choose another player, with a 1st rd grade, at a different position, or they would just trade down and take one of these guys in the 2nd rd. We tried picking players to fill needs in the past, and we payed dearly for it. If we can get a player that represents value and need then great, but we'd pick a player that represents value before picking a player that only represents need.

    It goes like this (and I hope I don't come across as condescending):

    1) When we construct our draft board every player in the draft is given a score/grade, which determines if the player is a 1st, 2nd, 3rd... round value.

    2) The players are then grouped, un-arranged, into draft rounds according to their score/grade.

    3) Then, players are either downgraded from one group to another (ie moved from the 1st rd group to the 2nd rd group), because of personality, injury, or character issues. Some players are removed entirely from a teams draft board because of these issues.

    4) Then, each group is arranged, independent of the other groups, according to its player's scores and whether they fill a position of need. Some players may have higher scores in a group, but because they don't fill a position of need, MAY be placed lower on the list (of that group), and lower ranked players (of that same group) that fill needs MAY be ranked higher.

    What this allows is that we will always get good value with our picks by picking players that either represent good value and fill a need, or a player that just represents good value.

    Here's a scenario, when pick #28 comes around, if all our 1st rd rated players, that also fill a position of need, are gone then we will not pick a 2nd rd rated player that fills a position of need. No, we'll either use #28 to pick a player that carries a 1st rd grade that doesn't fill a position of need, or we'll try to trade the pick and pick up a 2nd rd pick.

    Furthermore, when our turn comes up in the 2nd rd, if a 1st rd player that doesn't fill a position of need is available, we'll choose that player over a 2nd rd rated player that fills a position of need. And so on, and so on... This is how we've drafted for the last several years and this is how we'll continue to draft.

    Also, Limas isn't even a 2nd rd talent, he'll probably be available in the 3rd along with Bowman and Marcus Monk. BTW, Drew is very high on Marcus Monk. Monk has comparable size to Hardy, and has better WR skills at this point. Drew says MM is one of the most complete, and NFL ready WRs in this draft, and says that, if his knee check out ok, he'll impact big time his rookie year. When I asked him to compare MM to JH Drew said, that MM has the potential to make an Ocho Cinco type impact in the NFL, while JH could have a R.Moss type impact. Also, Doucet does have 1st rd talent, but because of nagging injuries, and a lack of deep speed, some teams may consider him a move the chains type #2 WR and put a 2nd rd grade on him.

    Also, keep an eye on Lavelle Hawkins (WR Cal) in the middle rounds. Drew says LH is going to be a better pro than his teammate DeSean Jackson. He says LH is going to be harder to cover in the slot than Wes Walker.

    2. Ray Rice, RB (Rutgers, 5'9", 205 lbs)

    RR is Drew's, and my, favorite RB in the draft. While Drew rates DMac higher, RR is the most NFL ready, and has less bust potential. Drew rates RR as a top 10 player in the draft, regardless of position, so getting him in the 2nd rd represents great value. There are no holes in RR's game. There is nothing he needs to improve on to make an immediate impact in the NFL. He's going to impact from the day he steps on the training camp field. While DMac will take time to refine his game in order to make an impact. DMac has a higher ceiling (Drew says he could become a bigger version of Gayle Sayers), but also has a lot more bust potential. While RR is much more of a sure thing. I thought RR reminded me of a quicker/faster/more agile version of Emmitt. I thought he looked like a combination of Emmitt & Barry Sanders. Drew nailed it on the head when he said no, RR is a combination of Emmitt Smith and Thurman Thomas. That's when the light went on! That's exactly who he runs like! If you take Emmitt's balance, vision, instincts, durability, and toughness, and add Thurman's speed, acceleration and agility you have RR. The only negative that naysayers constantly pull out their arses is his "lack" of speed. All I ever say in response is he's faster than Emmitt ever was! That usually shuts them up. Nuff said.

    ALT: Chris Johnson, RB / Jamaal Charles, RB / Devin Thomas, WR

    I'd put down CJ and Felix Jones as good 2nd round value alternates. I haven't seen enough of J.Charles, but, from the little I've seen, he looks like a 3rd rd talent to me. I was completely unimpressed. I like Thomas alot. He looks like a poor-man's version of RR. He has many of RR's skills, but he just looks slower doing them. He looks similar to a Maurice Jones Drew type of RB, but I think he's faster than MJD.

    I'm too tired to continue. Again, I hope I didn't come off "sounding" condescending, it wasn't my intention.

    edit: I thought you were talking about Thomas Brown (RB Georgia) and not Devin Thomas (WR Michigan St.). My bad. LOL.
  12. TheCount

    TheCount Pixel Pusher

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    Condesending, not at all, I'm not claiming to be a draft pro, just having some fun.

    As far as Jamaal Charles, you should check out this video.

    Granted, it's a highlight real, but I see some things out of him that could be impressive and feel he'd be a decent pick if we stay at the same position in the 3rd which is similar to taking him early 3rd. I think he'd work well in combination with Barber as well.

    I understand some of the concerns you guys are raising about Talib. Mikes Jenkins is another guy to think about, I wouldn't be upset at all. I don't know if he'll be there either.

    I'm sort of waiting for the combine to make up my mind on a lot of the guys I like, especially those at skill positions.
  13. theogt

    theogt Surrealist Zone Supporter

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    I think he'll put up a mediocre 40 time and there are too many good corners in this draft.
  14. marchetta

    marchetta Well-Known Member

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    Thanks for the link. This vid just confirmed what I really thought about him, but didn't want to say. This guy is NOT an NFL RB. This guy is a slot-WR my friend. He doesn't have the body type to be a NFL RB. He will never be able to put on enough weight or muscle to be a NFL RB. He just doesn't have the body type. Someone may say, yeah but he's ~200lbs. It doesn't matter. It's not always about your height and weight, it's more about how your body is put together. Look at Ray Rice, he's also ~200lbs, but most of his weight is in his thighs (like Emmitt and Barry Sanders). This guy runs with a narrow base and doesn't have enough "lead in his arse" to take the hits that a NFL RB has to take. He'd get bounced around like a pinball, because of the way his weight is distributed. He runs to upright, and doesn't have a natural body lean, which results in a high center of gravity. Add this to the fact that his weight is equally distributed throughout his body (like a WRs), instead of in his thighs and butt, he will not be an effective RB. He's going to "suffer" the same fate as Steve Slaton, which is a good/great college RB that's going to have to learn to be a slot-WR because he doesn't have the body type to be a NFL RB. He and Steve Slaton are going to be some team's 3rd round slot-WR project.
  15. TheCount

    TheCount Pixel Pusher

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    I think we're going to have to agree to disagree on Charles, I think he'll make some team a good back, although I may have him overvalued in the late 2nd. Not too many RB's projected in the first 3 rounds make a switch to WR, I doubt this guy will buck that trend. The kid is a track star and has tremendous balance and pretty good vision. He's also had experience carrying the load and has capable hands, I'm sure a team will add him to their backfield.

    We'll see how things work out for Talib though, I think people might be getting carried away with this 40 thing, DeAngelo Hall has all the speed in the world and that hasn't saved him from being a bone head. Sometimes being smart and a playmaker, alla Ty Law, is worth something. As long as he doesn't put up something ridiculous, I think he's a first round talent. That is not to say he wouldn't make a good FS, but I don't think he's horrible as a CB pick either.
  16. Sasquatch

    Sasquatch Lost in the Woods

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    No Warrick Dunnesque potential?
  17. marchetta

    marchetta Well-Known Member

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    Here's Drew Boylhart's opinion of Jamaal Charles:

    "Jamaal Charles…I don’t think he runs hard enough through the tackles. You’re right, he bounces outside too much and he doesn’t have good balance. If he’s outside and gets hit in the shoulder, it’s enough to throw him off-balance. If he wants to be a 3rd down back, he’ll have to learn to block well, read defenses and pick up the blitz. I’m not convinced he has the work ethic to do that."

    Drew mentions twice how easily he's thrown off balance. I guess I'm not the only one that noticed that Jamaal has a high center of gravity. This lose of balance occurs from not having the majority of his weight located in his lower body, and from running to erect and with a narrow base. This results in that "pinball" analogy I mentioned. Jamaal's weight is equally distributed throughout his body, and there's nothing he can ever do to change it. At most, he'll be a 3rd down RB, but I still say his best position may be as a slot-WR project.
  18. VACowboy

    VACowboy Well-Known Member

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    Who is Drew Boylhart and why does his opinion matter more than mine? Honest questions. Just curious.
  19. marchetta

    marchetta Well-Known Member

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    Honest answer (no sarcasm intended): His opinion doesn't matter more than yours. However, because he analyzes players as an occupation and he has more time and resources than the average fan to do so, we can only assume that he is somewhat more informed on player abilities and their potential than we are. It doesn't make him right, but he is darn good. The only analyst that I know that's was better is the late great Joel Buschbaum. Joel was soooooooooooooo good that Bill Billicheat (sp?) would read his scouting book before building NE's draft board. Bill would even call Joel the day before the draft and tell Joel NE's board, and would ask Joel's opinion of players, and then reconstruct NE's board the night before the draft according to Joel's recommendations. BB even offered Joel to be his scouting dept head, and told him he could write his own check. But Joel, who was living in a cramped 1 bedroom apt, said no. He said if he went to work for NE, then he'd only be NE's scout, but if he continued publishing his magazine he could be a scout to every franchise and every fan. When Joel died, every NFL bigwig attended his funeral; from owners to coaches to personnel people, even though none of them had ever met him. Joel never left his apartment, all he did all day was study film. Joel was a sickly person, and was allergic to everything and rarely ate or went outdoors. He lived across the hall from his parents, who would come over and attend to his needs. But all he did all day was study players. Bill Billicheat (sp?) spoke at the funeral, and said tearfully that Joel was his best friend even though he had never met him face to face. That just shows you how much Bill gets out. After Joel died, I searched for an analyst that could match him, but after years of searching I stumbled upon Drew. While he's no Joel Buschbaum, he's the next best thing (IMHO). The is 2nd only to RICK GOSSELIN in terms of accurately predicting the top 100 players in the draft over the last 3 years. So, they are very credible, but you'll have to decide for yourself whether Drew's analysis is worth believing. Like they say one man's treasure is another man's garbage (or something like that), so it's all a matter of opinion. Personally, I don't agree with everything he says. But if I see something in a player, and he sees it too then that tells me a lot about the player. And if I see something in a player, and he sees something totally different, then I'm going to go back and take a closer look at the player. I may change my mind, and I may not. I don't always agree with everything he says, and neither should you.

    In a recent chat someone asked Drew how he became a "scout." Here's his response:

    Drew - "I’m not a scout, I’m an analyst. The difference would be that I don’t leave my living room to evaluate draft choices and I don’t go as in-depth as the scouts have to go to evaluate draft choices. I only use about 1/2 the tools they use. However, I consider my area of expertise to be more in the realm of a pick’s length-to-impact (LTI) in the NFL as well as their potential to be successful at that level. First steps (and always are) watching lots of film with no sound."

    This is what Drew does day and night. He determines 1) How long a player will take to make an impact in the NFL and 2) What type of impact can that player be expected to make. That's it folks.
  20. DaBoys4Life

    DaBoys4Life Benched

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    i only like the Travares gooden pick and dexter jackson won't be there in the 7th

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