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Obama Opens up a Big lead in the Polls

Discussion in 'Political Zone' started by MilesAustinforMVP, Sep 2, 2008.

  1. MilesAustinforMVP

    MilesAustinforMVP Benched

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  2. vta

    vta The Proletariat

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    For what they're worth, I don't think they mean much, either way.
    This particular one at the link had Hilary wiping the floor with Obama and we see how that turned out.

    I think the number of people not participating and keeping their vote to themselves, until November, is far greater than the numbers these things can attest to.

    I think we'll see 4 years of McCain and then probably Hilary.
  3. MilesAustinforMVP

    MilesAustinforMVP Benched

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    That is not true at all go down to the bottom of the page:
    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/democratic_delegate_count.html

    Moreover the primaries are different. Obama can go into a state one at a time bring up his numbers in that particular state, while the rest of the country remains pretty unfamiliar with him. So that is not a good point of comparison.

    Thirdly, polling is done by analyzing previous elections and targeting a certain percentage of each demographic for the final analysis. So if anything the RCP polls are probably more biased towards McCain, considering the black and youth vote will come out in larger numbers this election.
  4. Heisenberg

    Heisenberg Pow! Pow!

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    I think this is the rest of his convention bounce that was somewhat negated from McCain's VP announcement. I expect McCain to get some bounce out of his as well.
  5. MilesAustinforMVP

    MilesAustinforMVP Benched

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    That's not how it works. Either you get the bounce after it happens or you don't at all. Its all about instant reaction to an event. It doesn't magically appear significantly after the fact.
  6. Heisenberg

    Heisenberg Pow! Pow!

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    You may be right and really, I hope you are. I'm just trying not to get too excited yet. :D
  7. Hostile

    Hostile Tacos are a good investment Zone Supporter

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    The only poll that matters is November 4th.

    [IMG]


    Ya gotta love Harry S.
  8. Doomsday101

    Doomsday101 Well-Known Member

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    Really because Obama did not see jack in a bounce when he selected Biden and the initial results were not there right after the convention but now he has a so called big lead?
  9. MilesAustinforMVP

    MilesAustinforMVP Benched

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    Indeed. But RCP has proven to be a pretty good indicator of the nation's mood at the time, granted things could change rather quickly.
  10. MilesAustinforMVP

    MilesAustinforMVP Benched

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    I think there is a group of people who are just starting to make up their mind now that election season has just started for the majority of America.
  11. Big Dakota

    Big Dakota New Member

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    Gonna come down to the debates. Reagan and Carter were neck and neck until Reagan asked America "Are you better off today than you were four years ago" and Carter was toast.
  12. MilesAustinforMVP

    MilesAustinforMVP Benched

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    I wonder who is going to use that line?
  13. BrAinPaiNt

    BrAinPaiNt Brotherhood of the Beard Staff Member

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    Way too early right now for either side of the Aisle to thump their chests.
    Sadly no matter who does win, it seems America loses.:(
  14. Big Dakota

    Big Dakota New Member

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    What was Harry's middle name?:)
  15. bbgun

    bbgun Benched

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    Yep. "The **** stops here."
  16. Doomsday101

    Doomsday101 Well-Known Member

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    It could also be that it is normal to see a bounce in the polls after a convention, yet only 1 side has had theirs and we have yet to have debates. We will see but when you get down to it the polls do not mean anything what matter is what takes place on Election Day.
  17. ConcordCowboy

    ConcordCowboy Mr. Buckeye

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    I'm John Frankenkerry and I did NOT approve this message.

    [IMG]
  18. Hostile

    Hostile Tacos are a good investment Zone Supporter

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    Yeah, but that was with an incumbent. That can't be done this year with the same forcefulness.
  19. masomenos

    masomenos Less is more

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    It's interesting to look at the current polling from the battle ground states.

    McCain is up in:

    Ohio (20 electoral votes)
    Florida (27 EV)
    Missouri (11 EV)
    Nevada (5 EV)

    Obama is up in:

    Pennsylvania (21 EV)
    Michican (17 EV)
    Wisconsin (10 EV)
    New Hamshire (4 EV)
    Colorado (9 EV)
    New Mexico (5 EV)

    That's 63 electoral votes from battleground states for McCain and 66 electoral votes for Obama. 13 vote Virginia is tied. There are 87 EV votes from strongly Red states for McCain, putting his total to 150 EV. There are 134 EV from strongly Blue states, putting Obama at 237 EV. There are, of course, 270 EV needed to win the presidency.

    http://www.electoral-vote.com/
  20. NinePointOh

    NinePointOh Active Member

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    Of course polls matter. You just have to understand what they're useful for and what they're not useful for.

    The much more important question is: why does this thread have the bowl-of-pasta icon?

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