Discussion in 'Draft Zone' started by dgr81, Apr 19, 2012.
I'm sorry but I'm not buying this for one sec...
Actually, I think he said there are about 4-6 elite players and then there are about 20-25 additional players that are first round worthy. That makes it an extremely deep first round and one where the late first round/early second round picks are highly valuable relative to other years. If 25-30 players are truly first round quality, then you know that some teams will draft lower quality players high and hence a number of the first round quality players will fall. That means that there will be first round quality players drafted in the early 2nd round.
The thing is that I don't really believe there is a sudden drop off from pick 20 to 21. It flies in the face of logic that there would be such a sharp drop off in ability at that point in the draft.
I'd need to see research proven over many years to suggest there is a marked difference in quality between players drafted say from positions 17-21 versus players drafted 22-26. If there were such a sharp cutoff I would expect 3 times as many Pro Bowlers in the first group compared to the second group. It just doesn't make sense to me.
I don't mind dropping out of the range but I want a rich package of picks to build back up all the weak spots on this roster. This is a very deep draft and I think we need to generate 3-4 quality starters from this group if we are going to put ourselves back into contention for a SB.
I've been saying the same thing for a while now. I understand the concept of " keeping your powder dry " ( Jerry's own phrase ), but at some point you have to s or get off the pot. They're the perfect example against people who argue that the draft should be conducted " this way " or " that way ". There is no " sure way " to conduct a draft. All systems, theories, procedures, methods... whatever.., have flaws.
Today in the NFL network I heard coach Billick say that " need is the worse evaluator in the draft ", which is UTTERLY ridiculous. The draft's primary function IS to fill " needs ". Now, to use " need " as the sole factor to make a pick is not smart and would most probably fail more times than not, but " need " is just as important as any other factor that's taken into consideration when making a pick.
Draft picks are worth more now with a rookie cap, so the old draft chart is useless.
For pick 14, I would want #27, #31, and a 3rd next year.
If that price is too high, I stay put and draft Barron or DeCastro if available.
I just don't see NE trading up in that scenario.
When you see guys like Whitney Mercilus and Brockers going off mock drafts around 25 it is a pretty deep draft. Those guys are first rounders in nearly any year and they have pro bowl potential with no major injuries in their history. I think it ends around 25-27. There will be some guys taken earlier that are not consensus first rounders due to need.
I don't know how much the 14th pick was effected by the rookie cap. I think top 5 were definately effected and 6-10 were slightly effected. After that I think those contracts were already "under control." Only difference is it's set set in stone so there are no holdouts, but the money is likely similar.
However, I wouldn't drop to 27 for just the 31rst pick, so we atleast agree there.
No way New England does that trade. That's not their game.
No way I would drop that far back.
Furthest I would trade back is to Cincy and i wouldn't do it unless I can get both their 1sts.
Don't think they are mentioning us trading with NE, they mention NE trading with someone else to jump ahead of us to get Barron.
That said, I don't see this happening in the visible universe.
The new salary cap makes the top 10 picks more valuable, after that it really didn't change anything.
The likely swap would be #14 and our 4th rounder for #27 and #31. I agree there is likely to be some very good talent at 27 and 31 to pair up. I think they would be a step down from what we could get individually at #14 though.
I do like SDogo's suggestion of #14 for #27 and their second rounder. I think we would be better off getting another pick in the top two rounds and keeping our 4th.
Fun to discuss the options though.