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Perhaps my most pessimistic post ever

Discussion in 'Jerry/Garrett/Rant Zone' started by sureletsrace, Oct 2, 2013.

  1. jimnabby

    jimnabby Well-Known Member

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    You're not trying to pick a fight, but you say it's "ignorant" to disagree with you? Okay.

    This team does not have the talent that the legitimate Super Bowl contenders do. I do not agree with you on that point. In particular, this team has lacked quality depth at a number of positions for a long time.

    Performance in a regular season head-to-head matchup doesn't tell you as much as performance over a whole season or series of seasons. We have been a .500 team for several years, and the Super Bowl winners (and losers) have generally not. Now, sure, lower quality teams can sneak into the playoffs, get on a hot/lucky streak, and win the SB. The Cowboys could. But it's not very likely. Or rather, it's no more likely that the Cowboys could do that than it is for the Lions or Chargers or Bengals or Titans or any number of other teams that aren't as talented as Denver or Seattle or some others.

    It amuses me how often I see two specific complaints about this team, often from the same people. 1. "We draft terribly." 2. "Why do we lose when we have so much talent?"
  2. jimnabby

    jimnabby Well-Known Member

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    Let me put it this way. This 53-man roster is incapable of being the Super Bowl favorite, or even on the short list of Super Bowl favorites.

    Any number of teams are "capable" of winning a Super Bowl. Get in the playoffs, catch some breaks, sure, why not? Doesn't make it likely. Doesn't mean you have the best talent or best coaching or anything. Means you were good enough to get in the playoffs and take advantage of some breaks.

    Right now, Football Outsiders gives us a 0.7% chance of winning the Super Bowl. Sounds about right. So yes, we're "capable" of winning the SB!
  3. Risen Star

    Risen Star Likes Collector Zone Supporter

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    I would say that's correct. Too many issues up front.
  4. DFWJC

    DFWJC Well-Known Member Zone Supporter

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    That is nonsense.
    Nearly half of an entire roster are trench players, yet somehow our fanbase, like Jerry, seems to only notice the bright shiney objects.
    Right now we have
    A good enough, but not great, QB
    One great WR. Another decent one that is hurt all the time..the rest are nothing special
    A possession TE who has had a great career but is hard pressed to score a TD
    One or two good olineman out of 5. But the others are finally getting better. after several years of being terrible
    An okay RB, nothing special, but not bad.

    One great DE and a good DT. The rest of the dline is patchwork..castoffs even
    One linebacker playing well out of 3, The other (carter) has the potential to be good
    One good CB, one okay CB, one CB that hopes to someday be good
    One safety coming into his own after a year off and oanther that is a rookie...the other is basically a castoff.

    How on earth is this talent better than the last 10 Super Bowl champs?
    that is lunacy.
    Common Sense and Alexander like this.
  5. Sarge

    Sarge Red, White and Brew... Staff Member

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    I am perplexed at how long it took so many to see how few times Romo throws the ball deep. Throw the ball DEEP every now and again Tony - it keeps the defenses honest - don't worry - it won't affect your rating that much.

    Rant of the week.
  6. big dog cowboy

    big dog cowboy THE BIG DOG Staff Member

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    It's still in the playbook?
  7. Sarge

    Sarge Red, White and Brew... Staff Member

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    Apparently not - ;)
  8. big dog cowboy

    big dog cowboy THE BIG DOG Staff Member

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    I can't remember the last time we attempted a hail mary.
  9. sureletsrace

    sureletsrace Official CZ Homer

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    I agree with both of your posts. What I am getting at is, the Super Bowl favorites as of late do not win the Super Bowl. They've been mostly average (9-7 thru 11-5) type teams with glaring deficiencies who get hot at the right time and catch lucky breaks. I mean hell, the Ravens last year are a great example. They were not Super Bowl favorites at any point during the regular season, they barely squeaked into the playoffs. A few lucky plays here and there, and boom. Ring.
  10. Sarge

    Sarge Red, White and Brew... Staff Member

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    Me neither - seriously. That's kinda sad. The question is why?
  11. sureletsrace

    sureletsrace Official CZ Homer

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    I bet I could go through the last 10 Super Bowl champion teams and point out the same amount of deficiencies.
  12. sureletsrace

    sureletsrace Official CZ Homer

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    Green Bay managed to win a Super Bowl with an offensive line worse than ours, a defensive line about the same as ours, and relatively similar talent on the rest of the team.
    BoysFan4ever likes this.
  13. jimnabby

    jimnabby Well-Known Member

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    Sure. We have enough talent to have a 1% chance of winning the Super Bowl. I'm not sure then what your point is. The reason we don't win the SB is that teams with a 1% chance to win it almost never do. Nothing more complicated than that. Some team might catch the breaks in a given year, but the odds are that it won't be your team.
  14. Idgit

    Idgit Ice up, son. Ice up! Staff Member

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    Other than the pick-six, we had, what, one pressure and one sack on Rivers the rest of the day? With Spencer and Ratliff on the bench, you better be able to get pressure from your backups. Throw in Ware's back and Selvie's concussion, and let SD hold at will, and you have a recipe for sitting in the pocket patiently and eating our lunch. We'd done a really nice job to that point all year getting pressure from our front. If we can't do it against DEN, we're going to get diced up on defense, again.

    I don't agree on the injury breaks, though. We're deeper than we have been, and I think this team, injuries and all, is capable of winning 10 games and, probably, the NFCE. We just have to execute better on offense, and keep getting the pressure we've seen the other three weeks of the season from here on out.
  15. Risen Star

    Risen Star Likes Collector Zone Supporter

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    I don't see it as a fight. It's a difference of opinion on the talent level. Let's talk about it. That's what these boards are for.

    I think our OL is improving but it's still marginal. We've run the ball better the last couple of weeks, if that can continue it's better than marginal, however a lot of the reason we ran the ball better was more of an emphasis on delays and draws. Getting movement through scheme. I haven't yet seen this OL really put a hat on a hat and move people. It's a group with an UDFA rookie with a knee issue and a 36 year old vet on his last legs. Not to mention a RT the team feels the need to cover for. Not exactly an overly talented group.

    The DL is pretty frightening. You have guys there that wouldn't even be in the league if they didn't play here. Countless JAGs. I credited the coaching for that performance against the Rams but I think overall you'll see little production. It's DeMarcus Ware, Jason Hatcher and not much else. It has to be one of the least talented DL depth charts in the league.

    Now if I believe all of the above is true, and I know games are won or lost in the trenches, how can I possibly believe this team is as talented as the last 10 Super Bowl champions?

    I had a member here tell me recently, thank God we signed Barry Church when we did. Really? Why? Did I miss something where Barry Church is now some great talented safety? We're overrating him. That's not to pick on Church. Let him develop. It's one example of how we overrate our talent.
    john van brocklin likes this.
  16. Idgit

    Idgit Ice up, son. Ice up! Staff Member

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    You know I think you overvalue trench play, but with Spencer and Crawford and Ratliff even Bass out, we are getting thin right now. I do agree that we're not as talented as the last 10 Superbowl Champs, obviously.

    Church, though, has played really good football this year. We're not overrating him, and we don't need to wait to see if he gets mentioned for a probowl nod to recognize good Safety play.
  17. Beast_from_East

    Beast_from_East Well-Known Member

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    Nice post..................I agree with just about everything you said.
  18. jimmy40

    jimmy40 Well-Known Member

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    Rodgers and Romo are relatively similar?
    TheXFactor likes this.
  19. BoysFan4ever

    BoysFan4ever Well-Known Member

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    You're right but they also have a top 2 or 3 QB. We don't and that's not bashing Tony but he's not as good.

    Great points though.
  20. DFWJC

    DFWJC Well-Known Member Zone Supporter

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    Maybe 60-70%, but certainly not as many.
    IMO of course.
    I'm not sure ANY of the l0 winners had as many deficiencies, let alone all of them.
    I do think dallas is on the uptick personnel-wise though. And if some of the younger guys (Claiborne, Williams, Carter, Frederick, Leary, Wilcox, Escobar, etc) come around like we hope they will, maybe the gap get filled in a hurray. i still think our combined trenches have a ways to go though. That dline is smoke and mirrors right now.

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