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Pollster: Don’t believe the Dem hype

Discussion in 'Political Zone' started by trickblue, Oct 9, 2008.

  1. trickblue

    trickblue Old Testament... Zone Supporter

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    This is exactly why the only poll I trust, occurs on November 4th...

    Link

    Pollster: Don’t believe the Dem hype

    By Joe Dwinell & Jessica Fargen

    The presidential race is still too close to call and could come down to the very last weekend before voters decide if they like or distrust Barack Obama, a national pollster predicts.

    “I don’t think Obama has closed the deal yet,” pollster John Zogby told the Herald yesterday.

    Zogby’s latest poll, released yesterday in conjunction with C-Span and Reuters, shows Obama and John McCain in a statistical dead heat, with the Illinois Democrat up 48-45 percent.

    Zogby said the race mirrors the 1980 election, when voters didn’t embrace Ronald Reagan over then-President Jimmy Carter until just days before the election.

    “The Sunday before the election the dam burst,” Zogby said of the 1980 tilt. “That’s when voters determined they were comfortable with Reagan.”

    Now voters are wrestling with two senators with opposite resumes - Obama, at 47, the unknown, and the established 72-year-old McCain.

    Zogby said he’s still hearing from moderates and non-partisan voters - what he calls “the big middle” - who are still shopping for a candidate.

    “It still can break one way or the other,” Zogby says.

    The Numbers

    The three-day survey polled 1,220 likely voters - about 400 people a day. Zogby will continuously poll right up until the November election.

    The latest poll numbers may reflect the bump that McCain received after his running mate, Alaskan Gov. Sarah Palin sparred with Obama’s running mate, Delaware Sen. Joe Biden during the first and only vice presidential debate last week.

    The poll shows that the two White House contenders have no problem attracting support from their own parties.

    Obama is winning 84 percent of the Democratic Party support and McCain has 85 percent of the GOP support, but Obama has the edge among sought-after Independent voters.

    He leads McCain among independents, 48 percent to 39 percent, according to the poll.

    Obama also has support from a slightly higher percent of conservative voters than McCain gets from liberal voters, but the advantage is small, according to the poll.

    Pollsters surveyed 1,220 likely voters and asked approximately 39 questions. The margin of error is plus or minus 2.9 percentage points.
  2. Heisenberg

    Heisenberg Pow! Pow!

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    What a difference a day makes eh? This morning:

    By John Whitesides, Political Correspondent

    WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Democrat Barack Obama has built a 4-point lead over Republican rival John McCain in the race for the White House, aided by growing support from women and independent voters, according to a Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll released on Thursday.

    Obama led McCain 48 percent to 44 percent among likely U.S. voters in the national poll, up from a 2 percentage-point advantage for Obama on Wednesday. The poll has a margin of error of 2.8 percentage points.

    Obama expanded his advantage among independents to 13 points from 9 and his lead among women grew to 9 points from 7. The Illinois senator moved slightly ahead of McCain among Roman Catholic voters and now leads or is even with McCain in all age groups except those above age 70.

    "Obama seems to be doing well among the groups that he really needs like women and independents," pollster John Zogby said. "McCain needs to do much better with them."

    McCain, a former Navy fighter pilot and Vietnam prisoner of war who has focused on security issues, was only running even with Obama among families with a member in the military.

    "That is not a good sign for McCain," Zogby said.

    The tracking poll, which will sample public opinion until the November 4 election, was taken Monday through Wednesday. About one-third of the survey was conducted after Tuesday night's second debate, which featured sharp exchanges on the economic crisis.

    McCain had hoped the debate could help him reshape a race that has been trending toward Obama, but Zogby said the one-day sample taken after the debate showed about a 6-point advantage for Obama.

    "McCain did not help himself in the debate, that's pretty clear," he said.

    Obama has solidified his lead in most national polls in recent weeks as the Wall Street crisis focused attention on the economy, where polls show Obama's approach is favored by voters.

    Independent Ralph Nader and Libertarian Bob Barr each registered support from 1 percent of respondents in the poll. Four percent of voters said they were still undecided.

    The rolling tracking poll surveyed 1,203 likely voters in the presidential election. In a tracking poll, the most recent day's results are added while the oldest day's results are dropped in an effort to track changing momentum.
  3. trickblue

    trickblue Old Testament... Zone Supporter

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    That's my point... you can't trust polls in a national election...
  4. Heisenberg

    Heisenberg Pow! Pow!

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    Exactly. From one day to another, the same guy is saying "This is far from over" and in the next he's saying "Oh this is bad".

    You can't trust individual polls, but I think you can trust polling averages at least a little.
  5. NinePointOh

    NinePointOh Active Member

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    Sure you can, as long as you don't cherry-pick which poll to trust and you understand that a poll is a snapshot and not a prediction. On the whole, the polling trends have been incredibly accurate within the margin of error, even in 2000 and 2004 when the notion that they were garbage started to catch on.

    http://www.pollster.com/blogs/Pres08vs04aand000verlay-thumb-600x450.png
  6. trickblue

    trickblue Old Testament... Zone Supporter

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    Believe me... I understand this... my point is we have 20 different people using 20 different polls to get their agenda across...
  7. Maikeru-sama

    Maikeru-sama Mick Green 58

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    People are really fooling themselves if they think Barack Obama has already won this election.

    I could see a repeat of something similar to what happened in the 2000 Election next month.
  8. Maikeru-sama

    Maikeru-sama Mick Green 58

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    Boy isn't that the truth.

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