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Rasmussen Reports: Both Hillary and McCain Widen Leads Over Obama

Discussion in 'Political Zone' started by theogt, Mar 24, 2008.

  1. theogt

    theogt Surrealist Zone Supporter

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    The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Sunday shows ongoing volatility in the Democratic Presidential Nomination. Nationally, Hillary Clinton now holds a very slight advantage over Barack Obama, 46% to 44%. For the past week-and-a-half, Obama’s support has been between 44% and 47% every day. Clinton’s support has ranged from 42% to 46% (see recent daily results). In discussing the Pennsylvania Primary, Governor Ed Rendell indicates that the Clinton campaign is ready to keep fighting to the end of the primaries and beyond.

    Looking ahead to the General Election in November, John McCain continues to lead both potential Democratic opponents. McCain leads Barack Obama 50% to 41% and Hillary Clinton 49% to 42% (see recent daily results). New polling shows McCain narrowly behind both Democrats in Nevadawhile McCain has a solid lead over both in North Carolina.March has been a good month for John McCain. But, a Rasmussen Reports video notes that a good month of March doesn’t get you to the White House, that requires a good day in November. There is at least one major issue standing between McCain and a victory celebration in November.

    On Monday, McCain is viewed favorably by 55% of voters nationwide and unfavorably by 42%. Obama’s reviews are 46% favorable and 52% unfavorable. For Clinton, those numbers are 42% favorable, 55% unfavorable (see recent daily results).

    The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows Democrats leading in states with 200 Electoral Votes while the GOP has the advantage in states with 189. When “leaners” are added, the Democrats lead 247 to 229. Over the past month, McCain has gained ground in Ohio,Michigan, Minnesota,Colorado, New Hampshire, and Pennsylvania. He leads both Democrats in Georgiaand Arkansas.Both Democrats continue to lead in New York, Massachusetts, Connecticutand California (see summary of recent state general election polling).

    Daily tracking results are collected via nightly telephone surveys and reported on a four-day rolling average basis. The next Presidential Tracking Poll update is scheduled for Tuesday at 11:00 a.m. The results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for the full-week results are available for Premium Members. See crosstabs for general election match-ups, favorable ratings and Democratic primary.
  2. Danny White

    Danny White Winter is Coming

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    Obama's lucky he's built this big lead, or else he'd be in serious trouble.

    As it is, I still don't see how Hillary legitimately catches him, and I don't see the Dems overturning the delegates won through the democratic process.

    But Obama will be entering the general election a very damaged candidate.

    Once again, I sense the Democrats will lose an election they had no business losing.
  3. AbeBeta

    AbeBeta Well-Known Member

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    for the record, Rasmusen is consistently the most conservative poll -- they tend to draw a far more conservative sample. For example, relevant to other issues, Rasmusen generally reports the ratings of Bush approval ratings that are on the average 6-8% higher than most polls. Their samples tend to skew conservative.

    I don't know enough about Rasmusen to know why this is always the case with their polls
  4. Danny White

    Danny White Winter is Coming

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    So does that mean everything's fine in Obama-land? ;)

    Seriously, though, the numbers at this point are almost meaningless... it's the TRENDS that should be of concern to Obama supporters (and Democrats).
  5. theogt

    theogt Surrealist Zone Supporter

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    In my experience, Rasmussen is one of the most consistently accurate polling organizations. I don't identify much of a conservative slant at all. I think if you look at his state by state "predictions" there's a considerable Democratic slant because he has states leaning Democrat that are actually polling in favor of Republicans.
  6. AbeBeta

    AbeBeta Well-Known Member

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  7. theogt

    theogt Surrealist Zone Supporter

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    Here's just one data point on Rasmussen's accuracy:

    Actual
    Bush - 50.7%
    Kerry - 48.3%

    Rasmussen Final
    Bush - 50.2%
    Kerry - 48.5%

    That's remarkably accurate (and a slight Democratic favor).
  8. ConcordCowboy

    ConcordCowboy Mr. Buckeye

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    OK now we know their polls are FOS.

    :p:
  9. theogt

    theogt Surrealist Zone Supporter

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  10. Sasquatch

    Sasquatch Lost in the Woods

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    Do you have the 2000 figures?
  11. Doomsday101

    Doomsday101 Well-Known Member

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    I find polls interesting but if the last few election tell us anything polls are meaningless on election day. It all comes down to who can get the vote out on that day. I know many people who love telling others who they will vote for but on election day many end up finding excuses of why they failed to get to the polls.
  12. Sasquatch

    Sasquatch Lost in the Woods

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    On the contrary, they're reputed to be quite accurate. ;)

    Sunday, March 28, 2008

    On Sunday, the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows Democrats leading in states with 200 Electoral College Votes. Republicans are favored in states with 189 Votes (see recent daily results). New polling from Georgia and Arkansas had no impact on the projections.

    Rasmussen reports
  13. theogt

    theogt Surrealist Zone Supporter

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    No. I'm trying to think -- I don't think he was doing polling in 2000.
  14. ConcordCowboy

    ConcordCowboy Mr. Buckeye

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    Well alright then!

    Things are looking up...Rasmussen has from time to time been right. :D
  15. AbeBeta

    AbeBeta Well-Known Member

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    I didn't claim they weren't accurate -- only that comparisons with other polls generally place their results on the conservative end

    What's the phrase that you financial folks use ... "Past Performance is No Guarantee of Future Results"
  16. ConcordCowboy

    ConcordCowboy Mr. Buckeye

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    I like that.

    :p:
  17. Sasquatch

    Sasquatch Lost in the Woods

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    I don't know anything about this site, so take it for what it's worth.

    Rasmussen was quite a bit off in 2000, predicting a 49% to 40% victory for Al Gore, whereas the actual results were 48% to 48%.

    LINK
  18. theogt

    theogt Surrealist Zone Supporter

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    The funny thing about his Balance of Power Calculator (as I mentioned earlier in the thread) is that he shows a Democratic bias. He has Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, and Washington as "leaning" or "likely" Democratic, yet he has McCain leading both Democrats in all of those states. He also has McCain with comfortable leads in Ohio yet it's considered a "toss-up" state.
  19. theogt

    theogt Surrealist Zone Supporter

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    I don't know what "alternative methods" he used in 2000, but the methods he uses now (pre-recorded polling) is widely considered pretty accurate. Like I said, I don't remember him in 2000. I started watching his polling in 2004. Perhaps there was some change in methodology.
  20. Sasquatch

    Sasquatch Lost in the Woods

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    Agreed. Wasn't trying to trip you up.

    I don't suppose you know how he's done in the democratic primaries up to this point relative to other pollsters?

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