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Republican Candidate Rankings (Oct. 10th) - Paul jumps to 5th

Discussion in 'Political Zone' started by Mavs Man, Oct 10, 2007.

  1. Mavs Man

    Mavs Man All outta bubble gum

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    National Journal
    Updated: 7:56 a.m. CT Oct 10, 2007

    WASHINGTON - Tuesday, former Sen. Fred Thompson participated in his first debate, and Rudy Giuliani and Mitt Romney finally got the chance to challenge each other on taxes. So these rankings may look very different in two weeks. By the way: We, uh, welcome back Ron Paul.

    These rankings are ordered by likelihood of winning the Republican Party primary and are based on a number of factors, including organization, money, buzz and polling.

    REPUBLICAN RANKINGS

    1. Rudy Giuliani
    Former New York City mayor Last Ranking: 1
    Stars are aligning. It's not his nomination to lose, but there's a clear path to win for him. The latest NBC/WSJ poll shows that three out of four GOP voters care more about issues Giuliani can prove he's conservative on (terrorism, taxes and education/health care) than issues he struggles with re: conservatism (moral values and immigration). If the primary becomes a referendum on those two issues, Rudy's in trouble -- but so far, it's not. The electability thing seems to be an added trump card, but how does he make peace with the Christian conservative activist crowd? Does he do a sit-down? Is he making personal phone calls? What's Ted Olson up to behind the scenes?

    2. Mitt Romney
    Former Massachusetts governor Last Ranking: 3
    After languishing a bit for the last month, it seems Romney's camp has a plan for how to tackle Rudy: Ignore Thompson and try to make this a two-person race again. The good news for Romney? The media seems ready to bite.

    3. Fred Thompson
    Former Tennessee senator Last Ranking: 2
    If anyone is in need of a re-launch, it's Thompson. It seems silly after just a month, but he needs something to go against the media stereotype that's hardening on him. Not sure what we'd suggest (not our job), but we're wondering: Where is this different kind of campaign he promised?

    4. John McCain
    Arizona senator Last Ranking: 5
    His base (the media) seems desperate to deal him back in, but what's going to happen to McCain if he loses in Iowa to Paul and Huckabee? Can he really turn it around again in New Hampshire?

    5. Ron Paul
    Texas congressman Last Ranking: 7
    Look who's crashing the party! His $5 million is impressive because no one on the GOP side is raising BIG bucks. And don't write off Paul's supporters as simply angry anti-U.N. black helicopter types. There's been anger from the GOP's less-government libertarian wing for some time, and Paul may be becoming the protest vehicle for those folks. It'll be interesting to see which of the front-runners actually "gets it" and tries to co-opt some of Paul's supporters.

    6. Mike Huckabee
    Former Arkansas governor Last Ranking: 4
    A lot of our colleagues love to talk up Huckabee, and there's no question he's been great at the debates. But can we acknowledge that the reason he isn't getting more traction is that he -- not Thompson -- is the laziest Republican in the field? Had Huckabee done the hard work two years ago of courting donors and then been willing to go a million miles on a plane to talk to folks who could build a campaign (not simply put his face on TV or his words in print), he'd be in the first tier, raising $8 million or $9 million a quarter.

    7. Sam Brownback
    Kansas senator Last Ranking: 6
    There's no real reason to rank him any more.

    8. Duncan Hunter
    California Congressman Last Ranking: 9
    There's no real reason to rank him any more.

    9. Tom Tancredo
    Colorado Congressman Last Ranking: 8
    There's no real reason to rank him any more.
  2. BrAinPaiNt

    BrAinPaiNt Brotherhood of the Beard Staff Member

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    Go Ron Paul It's Your Birthday
  3. Eric_Boyer

    Eric_Boyer Well-Known Member

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    This is far more accurate then the last one.

    I would swap 2 & 3 and shift Tancredo up to 7th.
  4. jterrell

    jterrell Penguinite

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    Thompson is lucky to be 3rd. He's running a popularity contest in absentia for the most part. His few public appearances have been notable in being short and barely netting one notable line.

    He needs to take up Red Bull or something... lol.

    Romney has a better voting record and business ties and of course more money.
  5. Eric_Boyer

    Eric_Boyer Well-Known Member

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    If you took away the money Romney "loans" to himself - he would have about 500k on hand - ranking him near the bottom of the money race.

    Thompson eclipes Romney in national poll data too.

    Add the "check with my lawyer" gaffe all over the news last night, and I think we will see Mitt Romney begin to fall off a cliff.
  6. jterrell

    jterrell Penguinite

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    I am obviously not a big fan of any of these guys but Thompson is a total charade. He ranks because he is considered a neo-con saviour so neo-cons are choosing him in polls. Once Thompson voters look at all tho; they'll see a guy with no message who has used excuse after excuse to remain hidden in the shadows. They propped him up in the debate last night because it was his first. He is either going to really come on or quickly fade into the night.

    Romney can of course loan himself a lot of money. He also has the advantage of a record of leadership in Massachusetts that does shine. Thompson is a complete fraud in all honesty. His voting record is completely moderate and he misses votes as often as anyone in the race.

    Thompson is really the anti-Paul. Paul shows up and deals with his limited exposure but is always present, always willing to make his points and consistently pushing his ideas. Thompson shows up sporadically, says very little except to tell gun nuts he loves guns(even is his voting record is spotty on the subject); tell people in the south he loves the south(even if he is a city slicker actor that filmed in NEW YORK CITY... get a rope. hehe) et al.
  7. Eric_Boyer

    Eric_Boyer Well-Known Member

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    Actually he is fooling a lot of traditional conservatives. He talks a good game about federalism. If I believed a fraction of what he says, I would like the guy quite a bit.

    Romney is the most liberal of these people, so I understand why you find him more palatable. But as an actual conservative, I feel I'm a little more tuned into my party and I would flip Thompson and Romney in the rankings.

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