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Republican Chambliss Destroying Democrat Martin in Georgia

Discussion in 'Political Zone' started by Danny White, Dec 2, 2008.

  1. Danny White

    Danny White Winter is Coming

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  2. Aikbach

    Aikbach Well-Known Member

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    Well so much for being filibuster proof.
  3. Maikeru-sama

    Maikeru-sama Mick Green 58

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    I really doubt on very important issues you would be able to get 60 Senators to agree on something even if they are in the same party.

    However, if Democrats get close enough, they could possibly get some moderate across the aisle to vote with them.

    I personally felt the race in Georgia shouldn't have ever been close in the first place.
  4. Danny White

    Danny White Winter is Coming

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    Franken's still got a few "outs" but it looks like Coleman will probably hold on in Minnesota as well.
  5. Danny White

    Danny White Winter is Coming

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    Yep, the "Obama effect" is what kept it as close as it was in November.

    I have a hunch the shine will be off his apple by 2010.
  6. Bach

    Bach Benched

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    Yep.

    If all the Congressional races were on a different day from the Presidential election, the Republicans would've likely gained seats.
  7. VCDefectors

    VCDefectors Benched

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    Is that a hunch or wishful thinking?
  8. burmafrd

    burmafrd Well-Known Member

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    Well there is now evidence that the Obama effect had a big impact on Nov 2.
    Since without him around Chamblis blew the other guy away big time.
  9. Danny White

    Danny White Winter is Coming

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    It's a hunch.
  10. Bach

    Bach Benched

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    One voting block definitely showed up on Nov. 2 that didn't yesterday.
  11. NinePointOh

    NinePointOh Active Member

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    I don't care where your political ideology lies -- having one party control the Presidency, House, and a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate will always be bad for the country.
  12. burmafrd

    burmafrd Well-Known Member

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    I pretty much agree with that. Too dangerous.
  13. Bach

    Bach Benched

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    Chambliss "won" on Nov. 2nd 49-46 and then in the run-off without Obama not on the ticket and without the massive black turnout he won 57%-43%.

    A three point victory turned into a 14 point landslide.

    With Obama not running in '10 I doubt we'll see the same type of Democrat turnout that we saw this year which resulted in Democrat gains in Congress. Yesterday was one example and I think we'll see more Republican candidates win in '10.
  14. NinePointOh

    NinePointOh Active Member

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    Seeing as, with very very few exceptions, the President's party almost always loses seats in the midterm elections regardless of how popular he is, you're really not going out on a limb with your prediction. It would be a tremendous and historically distinct failure if the GOP doesn't gain a few seats in 2010.

    Will the gain be large enough to swing the majority? The likelihood is slim.
  15. Sasquatch

    Sasquatch Lost in the Woods

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    Is "a hunch" the political equivalent of the "I've got a really good feeling about this kid" sentiment that we see ad nauseum on the CZ about folks like Randal Williams, Tyson Thompson, Courtney Brown, etc.?
  16. Danny White

    Danny White Winter is Coming

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    Well, I know a lot more about politics than I do about NFL talent evaluation, so I'll let my "hunch" stand on its own. :D
  17. NinePointOh

    NinePointOh Active Member

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    So you know enough to realize that your "hunch" is only predicting what, as anyone with a rudimentary knowledge of presidential politics can cite offhand, has happened to almost every single president in every single midterm election since 1938?

    The only time since FDR's first term that a president's party gained seats in both the House and Senate in a midterm election was in the wake of 9/11 at the height of the Rally 'Round the Flag Effect.

    I have a hunch that your "hunch" will pan out to be accurate. But holding out hope that you'll actually realize why? That's wishful thinking.
  18. Danny White

    Danny White Winter is Coming

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    I think you kind of missed the focus of what my "hunch" was... my hunch was cause-focused, not effect-focused as you seem to be indicating.

    The "effect" -- that Republicans will pick up seats in 2010 -- is, as you correctly point out, conventional wisdom.

    My "hunch" -- although I may not have expressed it clearly enough -- was focused on the cause. I think that the "Obama effect" was unusually high at the top of the ticket in 2008. I've also been predicting since before the election that his base is going to end up being very disillusioned with him in practice.

    Obviously, Obama won't literally be at the top of the ticket in 2010, but I think that emotionally his pull as the leader of the party will be diminished by then and will create much less pull as a result. I think the liberal base will be frustrated by him, and that those combined factors will lead to a let-down at the polls.

    So my hunch is more about liberal disenchantment with Obama than it is about the actual election results, which I think we all agree will be favorable to the Republicans.

    I think VCDefector understood that distinction when he suggested it was more "wishful thinking" on my part than a true prediction. We'll see, I guess.

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