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Romo 3rd down stats

Discussion in 'Fan Zone' started by CaptainMorgan, Nov 15, 2013.

  1. Plankton

    Plankton Well-Known Member

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    This doesn't tell the whole story.

    The Cowboys are 27th in the NFL in total 3rd down attempts, and are 18th in three and out percentage.

    On third downs, 92 of their 116 attempts are 6 yards or more, or 79% of the plays.

    This tells me that the lack of a running game and a failure on 1st and 2nd downs hampers their third down efficiency. The stats also show that Romo plays very well on first down.

    Romo has certainly not played well since the Denver game, but those numbers above have some context to them.
    Coy, Nirvana and dstovall5 like this.
  2. ykc

    ykc Active Member

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    I wish Parcells convinces Jerry to keep Sean Payton as next heach coch of cowboys after Parcell quits
    ufcrules1 likes this.
  3. percyhoward

    percyhoward Research Tool

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    Makes no sense to believe that, 8 Pro Bowls into his career, defenses have only suddenly awoken to the fact that Witten is a productive 3rd-down target.
    dstovall5 likes this.
  4. percyhoward

    percyhoward Research Tool

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    Avg yards to go on 3rd down pass plays (pass rating):
    2013
    games 1-5: 7.3 yards (85.2)
    games 6-10: 8.3 yards (33.0)

    Avg yards to go on 3rd down pass plays (pass rating):
    2013: 7.8 yards (57.6)
    2012: 7.6 yards (74.0)

    Looking at this season only, the lack of a running game definitely plays a role in our poor 3rd-down performance. In the last five games we need to gain a full yard extra on 3rd downs on average. But I don't think the lack of a running game explains the drop in pass rating. When you compare this year with last year, there isn't much difference in the distance to go, compared to the difference in pass rating.

    Also, looking at this season only, that extra yard to go probably shouldn't bring down the pass rating by 50+ points. The average pass rating for the NFL on 3rd and 7 is 85.5. On 3rd and 8, the rating only drops down to 81.5.

    But you're right that it's easy to lose sight of the fact that (1) we've passed very well on 1st and 2nd down -- which make up more than 80% of our plays, and (2) that 3rd downs account for less than 20% of our plays.
  5. Plankton

    Plankton Well-Known Member

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    It's even more bizarre when you consider that he is taking part in the game planning sessions with the coaches, and has full audibling capability at the LOS.

    If anything, he should be performing better.
    Corso likes this.
  6. percyhoward

    percyhoward Research Tool

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    Here are their 3rd-down targets' pass ratings for the season:
    Bryant 10 of 21 123 3 td 0 int 105.8
    Witten 10 of 19 116 0 td 0 int 71.4
    Beasley 9 of 14 102 0 td 2 int 46.4
    Williams 7 of 17 120 0 td 2 int 26.2

    Here is how they have divided 3rd-down targets over the last 5 games:
    Bryant 22.9%
    Witten 11.4%
    Beasley 28.6%
    Williams 37.1%

    Both sets of data repeated, but combined:
    pass rating by target (season)
    Bryant/Witten 20 of 40 239 3 td 0 int 93.6
    Williams/Beasley 16 of 31 222 0 td 4 int 35.3

    share of targets (last 5 games)
    Bryant/Witten 34.3%
    Williams/Beasley 65.7%
  7. dstovall5

    dstovall5 Well-Known Member

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    And that's why we need a reliable #2 WR. Right now, we're really feeling the growing pains of a very inexperienced WR core, IMO. Ask Brady how he's doing with inexperienced WRs.
  8. percyhoward

    percyhoward Research Tool

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    On 1st and 2nd down, Romo's performing much better.
    2013: 110.7
    2012: 95.2

    Especially in the red zone:
    2013: 112.8
    2012: 93.0

    Even over the last 5 games, on 1st and 2nd down, Romo is better than last year:
    2013 (games 6-10): 98.2
    2012: 95.2

    The problem is the last five games, on 3rd down. We've shifted the focus from our most productive, most efficient 3rd-down targets (Bryant and Witten) to our least productive, least efficient targets (Williams and Beasley). That's something that, in hindsight, should not have been allowed to happen.
    Common Sense likes this.
  9. Vintage

    Vintage The Cult of Jib

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    Percy straight up owning our stupid fan base. Cracks me up every time.
    5Stars likes this.
  10. percyhoward

    percyhoward Research Tool

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    Before anybody else says it, I realize the 2 INT on Beasley's targets had nothing to do with Beasley. In fact, he was wide open both times, and there's no reason to think both passes wouldn't have been completed. One was deflected at the LOS, the other was picked off by a LB who got drawn into the passing lane by a back who ran the wrong route. I guess you could fairly say that his targets involve a lot of traffic.
  11. AmberBeer

    AmberBeer Well-Known Member

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    Another hater who blasts those who use stats to support Romo but at the same time use stats to hate on him. And don't give us "I'm only asking the question" spiel. We know your history on this subject.

    I explain it as bad coaching and bad play from everyone on the offense.
  12. cowboyvic

    cowboyvic It's Stuck

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    Haven't you heard. it's the OL, WR's and coaches fault. it can't be Romo.
  13. cowboyvic

    cowboyvic It's Stuck

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    You missed out on one other thing. he uis to scared to run to pick up first downs and keep drives going. how many times have you seen wide open running lanes for a fist down and this guy throws the ball away? he has his 55 million in the bank, so why should he take hits?
  14. ufcrules1

    ufcrules1 Well-Known Member

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    Makes no sense if you are a simpleton. You think defenses will just keep playing a team the same way year after year? No, they change things up. In the last 5 games it appears teams were taking Witten out of the game on 3rd down and Romo's stats sank faster than the titanic when that happened. His 3rd down stats are absolutely horrendous!
  15. ufcrules1

    ufcrules1 Well-Known Member

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    Yeah, when he does run he looks TERRIFIED and goes down as fast as he can. He hasn't ran for over 50 yards in a WHOLE season since 2009. I think it is safe to say it is no longer part of his game. We now have a pocket passer only.
  16. beevomav

    beevomav Active Member

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    A couple of things. Last season Tony was 5th at 43.85%. I don't have access to the advanced stats, but I would bet the average needed on third down this season is higher than last season. So are we just to think Romo has lost it all at once, or is it the result of something else?

    This season Tony has become a dink and dunk passer, and I think that can be laid at the feet of how teams are defending the pass and play caller Bill Callahan. There is little doubt that doubling Witten and Dez has ground this passing game to a near stop and Callahan has not made any adjustments. Why is Dez not in motion or lined up in the slot?

    Then again..this is not what most here want to hear? It's much more fun to blame Romo for everything.
  17. beevomav

    beevomav Active Member

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    Exactly..but not only Witten. In that same time frame Dez has disappeared from the passing game. Romo is left with little options.
  18. Common Sense

    Common Sense Well-Known Member

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    Can't it be an instance of Romo not looking quite as sharp lately (nagging injury?) PAIRED with Bill Callahan's bizzarro playcalling?
  19. CaptainMorgan

    CaptainMorgan Well-Known Member

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    Everyone except Romo right? lol
    ufcrules1 likes this.
  20. CaptainMorgan

    CaptainMorgan Well-Known Member

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    how is anyone owning anyone here? The stats clearly back up what me eyes have seen. Romo is struggling on third downs. We are unable to keep drives alive. Nothing Percy has posted here suggests otherwise.

    Furthermore why are fans suddenly "stupid" when they say anything remotely negative regarding Romo?

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