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Romo 3rd down stats

Discussion in 'Fan Zone' started by CaptainMorgan, Nov 15, 2013.

  1. Beast_from_East

    Beast_from_East Well-Known Member

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    The Quarterback ratings are not just made up.......................98 is dam good.................I think that ranks him 6th in the league if I remember correctly.


    Anybody that says a Quarterback with a 98 rating cant play needs to seriously learn the game.
    khiladi likes this.
  2. AmberBeer

    AmberBeer Well-Known Member

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    Didn't say that. But the offensive problems are because the team doesn't try to run the ball. You can't win in the NFL unless you can run the ball and stop the run. Cowboys can't do either.
  3. Blackspider214

    Blackspider214 Well-Known Member

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    How about you just watch the game and quit quoting stats like a stat geek.

    There's more to sports than stats.

    Hence we have not won nothing under Romo, yet we extend him with a huge contract.
  4. dallasfan4lizife

    dallasfan4lizife Well-Known Member

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    You romo defenders are just laughable. Seriously. It's getting ridiculous..,.year after year, I swear.
    lane likes this.
  5. beevomav

    beevomav Active Member

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    Using advanced stats from "Advanced NFL Stats" we can look even deeper into the Cowboys problem. The break even percentage for all NFL teams is 3rd and 1.5 yards. Meaning if you have 3rd and 1.5 yards, there is a 50% chance of getting the first down. Using your stat of Dallas needing 6 yards or more, that puts the chance of a first down at 39%.

    Link: http://www.advancednflstats.com/2008/07/first-down-probability.html

    I looked at the NO game and found the following. Dallas had 11 third downs in the game. Going backwards the yards and league percentages is as follows:

    1 .. 3 / 21 ... 13%
    2 .. 3 / 18 ... 19%
    3 .. 3 / 09 .. 36%
    4 .. 3 / 08 .. 37%
    5 .. 3 / 06 .. 39% twice
    6 .. 3 / 05 .. 38% twice
    7 .. 3 / 04 .. 47% .. Murry gained 3 yards on a running play
    8 .. 3 / 02 .. 49%
    9 .. 3 / 01 .. 75% .. False start by Hanna..became 3rd and 6

    Dallas had one third down where the percentages were in their favor of getting a first down. Romo attempted 9 passes on third down 9 times. He had one pass dropped and threw 8 incomplete passes. A bad day for Tony but most of the failures were one first and second down, leaving third and 5 or more on 8 occasions.

    Look Romo has not played well, but neither has the entire team. This post is a perfect example.."Romo 3rd Down Stats," instead of "Cowboys 3rd Down Stats." Seems to be another in a long list of posts designed to portray that it's mostly Romo's fault.
  6. dstovall5

    dstovall5 Well-Known Member

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    Romo is struggling on 3rd and LONG. When we're in a manageable 3rd down (<3) Tony Romo has still been the same Romo, coincidence? I think not. His 3rd down stats are that bad because most of our 3rd downs are long, which causes the defense to know what's coming and they can sell out on it. This is pretty much common sense ...

    You posted a very misleading stat to try and start a bash fest on Romo, quite sad honestly.
    khiladi likes this.
  7. percyhoward

    percyhoward Research Tool

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    Sounds like you've been reading my posts. Yes, Witten and Bryant are being targeted much less frequently on 3rd down in the last five games.

    My point to you specifically was that it's not that defenses have just now caught on to the fact that Witten is a threat on 3rd down. There's obviously something that is making it easier for them to defend Witten. Probably a combination of the lack of production from Williams, bad throws/drops on 3rd down, and pass protection issues on 3rd down to the point that Witten stays in to block.

    Make sense?
    khiladi and dstovall5 like this.
  8. percyhoward

    percyhoward Research Tool

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    That's not really it. Over the first 5 games, our pass ratings were about what they were last year, at any distance to go on 3rd down. Over the last 5 games, they're much worse than last year at any distance to go.

    3rd and less than 3
    2012: 101.1
    2013
    first 5 games: 101.8
    last 5 games: 56.3

    3rd and 3-6
    2012: 101.6
    2013
    first 5 games: 118.8
    last 5 games: 37.9

    3rd and 7+
    2012: 43.9
    first 5 games: 42.8
    last 5 games: 23.3
    khiladi likes this.
  9. khiladi

    khiladi Well-Known Member

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    Kyle shanahan would get more out this offense than these clowns...
  10. DandyDon1722

    DandyDon1722 It's been a good 'un, ain't it?

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    Exactly Vic thanks for noticing!

    Lol - I know he hasn't played well the last few games and he isn't excused -- but his body of work suggests it's not all him.
  11. DandyDon1722

    DandyDon1722 It's been a good 'un, ain't it?

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    Yep and you have no solution. I always ask the same three questions that nobody can answer about the Romo alternative.

    1. Who else you got?
    2. Can they outperform Romo?
    3. If you discard him how do you justify it to the current players without losing the team?

    The answers are -

    1. Nobody.
    2. Not without developing.
    3. The current players who when healthy can compete will not buy into starting over when you have a quality player at the most important position in the NFL.

    So the ten precenters will continue to complain to no avail because they have no answers to these questions.
    dstovall5 likes this.
  12. ufcrules1

    ufcrules1 Well-Known Member

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    Yes, the bad throws part makes sense. That could be the answer. This is a prime example of how stats clearly don't show the whole story. I think Romo has legit targets to throw to besides Witten (who needs the ball to hit him in the chest to catch it these days) and Dez who is always double covered. Beasly, Harris, and Williams are all legit receivers, as well as Murray for dump off passes who is routinely over looked.

    The answer is not to just throw the ball more to Dez and Witten, it's to burn the defense by throwing to other targets when Dez and Witten are doubled. Romo hasn't been good at that lately.
  13. CaptainMorgan

    CaptainMorgan Well-Known Member

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    yea? take a look...

    look Im not trying to bash Romo but the guy has not been right. Frankly Im worried as hell seeing as how we just dropped a 100 million on the guy and he seems to be getting progressively worse as the season goes along.
  14. percyhoward

    percyhoward Research Tool

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    That's not the only part that makes sense, it's just the only part you wanted to hear.
    beevomav likes this.
  15. Beast_from_East

    Beast_from_East Well-Known Member

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    A............I watch every game

    B...........Romo has won multiple division titles and a playoff game....................did you have a nice nap Rip Van Winkle?
  16. ufcrules1

    ufcrules1 Well-Known Member

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    It's the one that makes the most sense to me from what I have been watching.
  17. percyhoward

    percyhoward Research Tool

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    I'm saying that if you watch other things besides just the throw, you'll see more, and you'll get a better picture of how it's not just bad throws by Romo that are causing our problems on 3rd down. Keep watching the throws, but also watch where Dez lines up and how he's defended, where pressure comes from and how or if it's picked up, and where Romo has to move to avoid it, and how far Witten gets down the field on 3rd and long, or if he runs a route at all. Above all, watch what a guy named Terrance Williams has been doing on 3rd down.

    Although you may even delight in the fact that bad decisions by Romo (not just bad throws) also play a role, you'll end up seeing that the fault for our 3rd down struggles isn't Romo's alone. Either way, I think you'll appreciate the game more, (and the team concept) and be able to talk about it in a more comprehensive way. Only prerequisites are an open mind, an eye for the details, and a willingness to accept that there's almost always more than one reason that something isn't working.
    khiladi and 5Stars like this.
  18. CaptainMorgan

    CaptainMorgan Well-Known Member

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    No doubt the failure of this offense has been a
    Colleftive effort by all the players and coaches.
  19. dragon_mikal

    dragon_mikal Darth Jones strikes again! Zone Supporter

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    He was extended because he's a damn good quarterback and those don't just fall in your lap. Simple.
  20. dstovall5

    dstovall5 Well-Known Member

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    And I seen it, it's no secret he has been in a slump for the past couple weeks. Overall for the entire YEAR that he has played, he hasn't been bad on normal 3rd down situations. Only in 3rd and LONG situations. Or if I'm wrong, how do you explain his 99 QB rating on 3rd and <3 through the entire first 10 weeks? Notice I'm not talking about a couple selected games, I'm talking about every game he has played this year.

    And no he hasn't been getting progressively worse, that's complete b.s. Though, feel free to prove me wrong.

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