Salary Cap Estimate for 2013

Discussion in 'Fan Zone' started by xwalker, Jan 16, 2013.

  1. xwalker

    xwalker Well-Known Member

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    This spreadsheet shows the top 53 current contracts.

    I'm using the top 53 contracts to approximate the salary cap. I'm not going to get into the actual rule of 51 and all of those details.

    I have also estimated how some of the top cap hits could be reduced by simple restructures. The estimates also include a new contract for Romo, L.P. Ladouceur (FA) and Costa (RFA).

    I have included 2M dead-money for Newman, the 5M penalty and an estimated 2M increase in cap space from a 2012 rollover.

    I show them cutting Free(7M base), Spears(2M base), and Connor(3M base).

    I have estimated the cost of draft picks based on cap hits of players selected in 2012 at the approximate positions where the Cowboys will be picking. The cost of the 6 draft picks is offset by removing the bottom 6 contracts.

    I didn't show it, but the Cowboys could also add voidable years to Romo's contract to get the current cap hit very low. They have done this in the past. This could also be done with Ware's contract.

    The estimate comes out to $14,764,419 available for Free Agents. Any of the Cowboys own Free Agents (Spencer) that are re-signed would come from this pool of money.

    Keep in mind that the first year of Brandon Carr's contract had a cap hit of $3.2M. You could have 4 of those with 14M in cap space.

    (click twice to enlarge)

  2. Hawk

    Hawk Member

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    I like mine better
    : Salary Cap Keep in mind that only the top 51 salaries count against the salary cap.
    I checked my post, again I think 51 is the right number!
    2013 Salary Cap Breakdown By Player

    1. Tony Romo- 11.5 + $5.728 SB- $17.228M cap hit
    2. Brandon Carr- 14.3M + 2M SB- 16.3M cap hit
    3. DeMarcus Ware- 5.5M + 5.3M SB + 1.418,750 other bonus- $12,221,750 cap hit
    4. Doug Free- 7M + 4.175 SB- 11.175 cap hit
    5. Miles Austin- 6.732M + 1.57 SB- 8.302 cap hit
    6. Jason Witten- $5.5M + 2.5M SB- 8M cap hit
    7. Jay Ratliff- 5M + 2M SB- 7M cap hit (It would cost cowboys $1m to cut Rat)
    8. Dan Connor- 3M + 1.350M= 4.350M cap hit
    9. Orlando Scandrick- 3.8M cap hit
    10. Gerald Sensabaugh- 3M + 750K- 3.750M cap hit
    11. Morris Claiborne- 1,129,296 + 2,567,182= 3,696,478 cap hit
    12. Dez Bryant- 1,557,500 + 390K SB + 1,935,000 other bonus= 3.66M cap hit
    13. Tyron Smith- 1,511,009 + 1,897,018= 3,408,027 cap hit
    14. Kyle Orton- 1.35M + 1,666,667= 3,016,667 cap hit
    15. Jason Hatcher- 2M + 833,333= 2,833,333 cap hit
    16. Marcus Spears- 2M + 700K= 2.7M cap hit
    17. Mackenzy Bernadeau- 1.75M + $812,500= 2,562,500 cap hit
    18. Nate Livings- 1.7M + 700K= 2.4M cap hit
    19. Barry Church*** (estimate) 1.4M + 625K= 2.025M cap hit
    ***I’m assuming 3.8M in guarantees includes 1.4M base for 2013 + 2.5M SB
    20. Jeremy Parnell- 1,023,088 + 333,333= 1,356,421 cap hit
    21. Lawrence Vickers- 1.2M + 100K= 1.3M
    22. Ryan Cook- 1,100,000 + 150K= 1,250M

    With the top 22 players accounted for, the Cowboys are already over the projected salary cap at $122,335,176

    23. Bruce Carter- 766,327 + 507,500 SB= 1,273,827 cap hit
    24. Sean Lissemore- 630K + 412,150= 1,042,150 cap hit
    25. Sean Lee- 575,000 + 300K= 875K cap hit
    26. Eric Frampton- 950K= 950K cap hit
    27. DeMarco Murray- $620,313 + 165,500 + 25,000= 810,813 cap hit
    28. David Arkin- 555K + 125K= 680K cap hit
    29. Tyrone Crawford- 480K + 143,813= 623,813 cap hit
    30. Kyle Wilber- 480K + 109,800= 589,800 cap hit
    31. Dan Bailey- 555,833= 555,833 cap hit
    32. Matt Johnson- 480K + 75,146= 555,146 cap hit
    33. Dwayne Harris- 555,000= 555K cap hit
    34. Kevin Kowalski- 555K= 555K cap hit
    35. Phillip Tanner- 550K= 550K cap hit
    36. Alex Albright- 555K= 555K cap hit
    37. James Hanna- 480K + 26,213= 506,213 cap hit
    38. Caleb McSurdy- 480K + 14,850 SB= 494,850 cap hit
    39. Donovan Kemp- 480K= 480K cap hit
    40. Cole Beasley- 480K= 480K cap hit
    41. Lance Dunbar- 480K= 480K cap hit
    42. Darrian Weems- 480K= 480K cap hit
    43. Sterling Moore- Amount unknown (vet minimum would be 480K)


    44. Danny McCray- is a RFA. The vet minimum would be $685K)

    Total for 43 players is estimated to be $136,457,621 and with Danny McCray receiving a minimum RFA tender would be $137,142,621

    With McCray, Dallas needs to add 9 players (6 players will be added in the draft and I'm projecting the same rookie pool as last year), account for $5M cap penalty, and remaining dead money (such as TNew). The Cowboys rookie pool for 2012 was $5.71M.

    Assuming the rookie pool for 2013 will be substantially the same as 2012, this is what the Cowboys 2013 cap situation looks like right now…

    $137,142,621 (43 players currently under contract + 1 RFA w/ minimum tender [McCray])
    $5.71M rookie pool (this brings us up to 50 players with 6 draft picks [at least])
    $5M cap penalty
    $2M dead money of TNew
    $390K for the 51st player who I'm projecting to be an UDFA (Cowboys still need 2 other players to fill roster but they do NOT count against salary cap)

    Additional Considerations

    Dallas can barrow $3M from a future cap and I believe they can roll over current money under the cap to next year which is between $3-4M. At a minimum, approximately $23,000,000 needs to be shaved from the above salaries or $33,000,000 if we want to franchise tag Anthony Spencer again. But, I don't think we should be too quick to assume Dallas would want to borrow $3M from the future for THIS YEAR. Why? Next year's cap also looks really bad. And, we have some huge signings around the corner... Sean Lee next year and Dez Bryant and Demarco Murray the following year.
  3. Cowboy Brian

    Cowboy Brian Augmented. Zone Supporter

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    What did Dan Bailey do to get $833
  4. Risen Star

    Risen Star Likes Collector Zone Supporter

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    The savings on Free wouldn't come until June.
  5. Boys122

    Boys122 Well-Known Member

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    Oh well, it's worth the wait.
  6. theogt

    theogt Surrealist Zone Supporter

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    I just read your first two numbers and can tell you this is wrong.
  7. LatinMind

    LatinMind iPhotoshop

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    IM pretty sure if u designate for june 1 cut it counts immediately but is like a june 1 cut. Otherwise what would be the point of having that option?
  8. Bluestang

    Bluestang Well-Known Member

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    June 1 cuts are designated so that a team can take half the cap hit one year and the rest the following year. Cutting Free results in a little over $8M cap hit, so designating him a June 1st cut you only take about $4M hit this year and carry the other $4M in 2014.

    You don't get the savings until June 1st.
  9. Nation

    Nation Well-Known Member

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    He signed a 3 year contract with a $2,500 signing bonus
  10. bkight13

    bkight13 Capologist

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    It looks like you added the $2M carryover from 2012 instead of subtracting it. That should add another $4M to make it $18+M available.
  11. newnationcb

    newnationcb Well-Known Member

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    Why does anyone even engage in this exercise. If they're not Adamjjts numbers then they're only remarkable in the attempt.
  12. hmcorp

    hmcorp Member

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    Where are Adams #s???
  13. junk

    junk I've got moxie

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    It is an approximation. Should be good enough for a ball park idea of where the team will be at. I appreciate the effort.
  14. burmafrd

    burmafrd Benched

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    We are all waiting for the Finger of God to write on the Stone Tablets

    in other words until Adamjts gets around to it nothing else matters
  15. MichaelWinicki

    MichaelWinicki "You want some?" Staff Member

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    Nice job xwalker!
  16. unionjack8

    unionjack8 Well-Known Member

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    why people have to be so negative when somebody has put time and effort into something is beyond me.
    Right or wrong he's done a damn sight more than you have.
  17. Boys122

    Boys122 Well-Known Member

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    Gotta give him credit for a post like that. Good effort Xwalker, trying to figure this out isn't easy.
  18. LeonDixson

    LeonDixson Illegitimi non carborundum

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    I agree with these posts. Good job, OP.

    I'm anxious to see Adamjt13's numbers too, but I'm not going to call the OP wrong. It's a heck of a good effort and a lot of work.
  19. DBOY3141

    DBOY3141 Well-Known Member

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    Good job. I've never been one to fret about the cap. If the Cowboys want to play in FA, then they will. I think we will have a couple of signings, but nothing like last year. I'm hoping for an OL/DL body to help in the trenchs.
  20. xwalker

    xwalker Well-Known Member

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    Thanks guys.

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