1. Welcome to CowboysZone!  Join us!  Come on!  You know you want to!

The Cowboys problem is not that Complicated

Discussion in 'Fan Zone' started by xwalker, Oct 30, 2012.

  1. xwalker

    xwalker Well-Known Member

    13,707 Messages
    5,869 Likes Received
    For the Giants in 2011,

    On run plays they had:
    4 Fumbles by RBs

    On pass plays they had:
    16 ints
    2 fumbles by Eli
    2 fumbles by WRs

    That's 5x more turnovers on passing plays vs running plays.


    For the Patriots in 2011,


    On run plays they had:
    1 Fumble by a RB

    On pass plays they had:
    12 ints
    2 fumbles by Brady
    1 fumble by a WR

    That's 15x more turnovers on passing plays vs running plays.
  2. utrunner07

    utrunner07 Well-Known Member

    9,075 Messages
    72 Likes Received
    For something that is not all that complicated you sure took a lot of space to explain it.
    The real problem is.......


    STUPID.
  3. AdamJT13

    AdamJT13 Salary Cap Analyst

    15,070 Messages
    662 Likes Received
    Which is absolutely false.

    From 2009-2011, there were five teams that averaged more than 5.0 yards per rush for a season. They averaged 28.6 turnovers per season. There were eight teams that averaged less than 3.7 yards per rush. They averaged 24.8 turnovers per season.

    There were 14 teams that averaged at least 4.7 yards per rush. They averaged 25.1 turnovers per season. There were 18 that averaged less than 3.9 per rush. They also averaged 25.1 turnovers per season.

    The median rushing average for those seasons was 4.17 yards per carry. Teams that ran the ball better than that averaged 27.1 turnovers per season. Teams that ran it worse that that averaged 25.8 turnovers per season.

    There's absolutely no correlation between being able to run the ball better and limiting your turnovers.
  4. Seven

    Seven Messenger to the football Gods

    11,550 Messages
    700 Likes Received
    1 RB.

    Up to 5 receivers.

    Your math is flawed. The percentages go UP.

    Who'd they play? A great run defense or a good secondary? Good day? Bad day? Coaching?


    STATS SUCK.
  5. Doomsday101

    Doomsday101 Well-Known Member

    78,530 Messages
    3,835 Likes Received
    No matter how you look at it there is no question be it Punt return, kick return, passing or running the ball Cowboys have to stop handing out gifts. Right now we are the Santa Clause of the NFL and it is not even December yet.

    Start taking care of the ball and the wins will come
  6. AdamJT13

    AdamJT13 Salary Cap Analyst

    15,070 Messages
    662 Likes Received
    We're 3-0 when our opponent DOES NOT score a defensive or special teams touchdown.

    We're 0-4 when our opponent DOES score a defensive or special teams touchdown.
  7. Supercowboy1986

    Supercowboy1986 Well-Known Member

    1,037 Messages
    171 Likes Received
    winner winner chicken dinner!
  8. xwalker

    xwalker Well-Known Member

    13,707 Messages
    5,869 Likes Received
    Are you saying that the Cowboys running game is not part of the reason that they're losing games?

    How accurate of a gauge is yards per carry? In 2011, Adrian Peterson had 4.7 yards/carry and Percy Harvin had 6.6 yards/carry behind the same OLine. Is Harvin better than Peterson?


    Teams like the Patriots might have a high yards/carry for reasons other than being a great running team. It could be because the defenses are too worried about their QB and less about the RB and/or they're getting those high yards/carry late in the game after they've already blown out the other team.

    I'm not saying that I can't be wrong. I'm just saying that statistics in a vacuum are not proof one way or the other.


    I'm not inclined to believe that yards/carry over a season correlated with turnovers disproves the following:

    1. A given QB will have tighter coverage windows to throw into when his team struggles to run the ball as compared to when his team has a great running game.

    2. A QB will have more turnovers against tight coverage than he will when his receivers have more space to operate.
  9. Doomsday101

    Doomsday101 Well-Known Member

    78,530 Messages
    3,835 Likes Received
    True, special teams is part of the game and we can't get careless with the football. As I mentioned before no turnover are good but we seem to have a lot of turnover on our end of the field where even if the opposing team does not get a TD they end up with an easy 3 points.

    I have no doubt coaches are preaching ball security to the team, hard part is while it is critical not to turn the ball over you can't start playing scared.
    You can't get to the point that you are trying to avoid making a mistake that you become hesitant
  10. AdamJT13

    AdamJT13 Salary Cap Analyst

    15,070 Messages
    662 Likes Received


    I'm saying that it's a very, very small part of why -- if any part at all. How well you run or stop the run has very little effect on winning in the NFL.


    That's an irrelevant discussion -- this is about teams and winning, not individual players. And you know that Harvin is a wide receiver, right?


    No, you're saying that you'd rather just ignore the facts when they fly in the face of your argument.


    Since 2009, there have been 89 teams that have averaged 6.5 yards per carry or better in a game. In those games, their quarterbacks were intercepted on 3.4 percent of their passes.

    There have been 91 teams that have averaged 2.3 yards per carry or worse in a game. In those games, their quarterbacks were intercepted on 2.9 percent of their passes.

    Where is the evidence that a lack of a running game results in "tighter coverage windows," which leads to more turnovers? There is none whatsoever.
  11. xwalker

    xwalker Well-Known Member

    13,707 Messages
    5,869 Likes Received
    Come on, this has to be hyperbole. You can’t possibly believe this to be true.

    Topics are often described as irrelevant when they don’t fit someone’s narrative.

    Yes, I know that Harvin is a WR; however, you’re using team rushing totals which include all rushers, not just RBs. I started to use RGIII in the example, but decided to use Harvin because he has the same teammates as Peterson.


    No, I’m saying that I’m open to the idea of being wrong; however, your statistics don’t prove me right or wrong.

    You’re trying to use a factual statistic to prove something that is not a fact.


    This is a fact:

    “We're 3-0 when our opponent DOES NOT score a defensive or special teams touchdown.”

    The above statement does not prove the following statement to be a fact:

    “The reason that the Cowboys lost is because they allowed a defensive or special teams touchdown.”


    We could have a very long, non-football related, discussion about how to apply and interpret statistics; however, I come to CowboysZone to get away from work, not to do more of it.

    Here is the statement to which you are referring:

    Did I say this was a fact? It’s my opinion.

    It’s a message board. Do I need a disclaimer that indicates that this is my opinion and not a proven fact?


    One last thing. I don’t see a need to make this discussion overly rude or abrasive. Hopefully, my responses don’t come across as such.
  12. muck4doo

    muck4doo Well-Known Member

    2,008 Messages
    92 Likes Received
    It's much simpler than that really, they just need to score more than the other team.
  13. jnday

    jnday Well-Known Member

    6,275 Messages
    1,274 Likes Received
    I have to agree with walker on this one. This offense needs a solid running game. Other teams may run offenses that don't need to run. All the stats in the world won't change that. They comparisons between the Cowboys and other teams is.worthless IMO.
  14. Idgit

    Idgit Ice up, son. Ice up! Staff Member

    31,960 Messages
    7,699 Likes Received
    The issue isn't about the value of the running game. It's about the value of an effective running game. Running more effectively than the other guy is barely correlated to the likelihood of winning. Passing more effectively than the other guy is highly correlated to winning.

    If running the ball more helps the team pass more effectively (ie, if it eliminates some of the situations we get into now where we're passing ineffectively) then it's a good thing to do. If it does not, then it really doesn't matter how much we 'rely' on the running game. If it doesn't correlate well with winning, doing it well doesn't matter.

    Doing it poorly in short yardage, and then having it cough up the ball on an unforced fumble on a critical drive on our side of the field, is the worst of all possbile worlds.
  15. SkinsandTerps

    SkinsandTerps Redskins Forever

    7,406 Messages
    20 Likes Received
    Stats don't always tell the story.

    But I appreciate how xwalker is breaking it down.

    EDIT: I feel like Adam is debating with himself...almost. Hmmm...
  16. Idgit

    Idgit Ice up, son. Ice up! Staff Member

    31,960 Messages
    7,699 Likes Received
    Stats always tell 'a' story. What matters is how that story's interpreted. There are plenty of wrong interpretations of statistics by people who don't know how to use them.

    xwalker's doing a great job of holding up his end of a wrong argument, though. And keeping it very civil. Love this thread.
  17. ologan

    ologan Well-Known Member

    3,822 Messages
    262 Likes Received
    The OP has it right.
    The Cowboys can’t consistently RUN the Ball.

    That's the key word....consistently....game in and game out!
  18. dwmyers

    dwmyers Well-Known Member

    2,049 Messages
    38 Likes Received
    Let's see. The start of a great series of articles by Brian Burke, dated 2007.

    http://www.advancednflstats.com/2007/07/what-makes-teams-win-part-1.html

    A short excerpt:

    This was the statistical status quo 5 years ago. And other than substituting run success for YPC, Brian's views haven't changed appreciably since then.

    Don't like Brian Burke? Try the more irreverant Cold Hard Football Facts, who champion the difference between offensive YPA and defensive YPA..

    http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/content/troll-report-winning-the-pass-ypa-battle/7230/

    Excerpt:

  19. dwmyers

    dwmyers Well-Known Member

    2,049 Messages
    38 Likes Received
    Too bad you can't "favorite" posts here. This one deserves it.

    D-
  20. MichaelWinicki

    MichaelWinicki "You want some?" Staff Member

    32,642 Messages
    3,164 Likes Received
    xwalker is making a good point. I appreciate his diligence researching the topic.

    And yes, I would like to see the team be able to run the ball better– if nothing else helping to give them a more consistent offense.

    However Adam is spot on when it comes to the catastrophic errors being made by the offense and special teams, meaning the easy touchdowns being given up by both units due to turnovers and such.

    The interceptions given up by the offense vs the Giants have been well researched by a couple of folks and in all cases it was either a fundemental error on the receiver or on Romo... The running game or lack there of didn't figure in to those errors.

    Stop the catastrophic errors and this team will post a winning record even if it's last in the league in running the football in YPA.

Share This Page