Discussion in 'Political Zone' started by theogt, Sep 8, 2008.
Seems a bit high, but ...
McCain should be up about 3-5, and probably back to tied by the end of the week. This poll was a head-scratcher. I'd be surprised if any others look like this today.
Obama has to be worried. Outside of knockouts in the debate, he is in trouble.
Yes Obama is in trouble because he is behind some poll in September:bang2:
Why wouldn't he be? You do understand that one of the biggest ? for Obama is going to be the debates. How well does he know the issues or is it going to be "change" over and over again....
Well see, but even though it's Sept. - If I were Obama, I'd be worried.
You do realize they have debates during the primaries, right? He's already gone toe-to-toe with Hillary, Joe Biden, Bill Richardson, and plenty of others who are supposed to know the issues more than him, and he seemed to come out just fine despite starting with large deficits in the polls.
McCain is getting his VP and Convention bounces. 10 points is probably pretty inaccurate (Rasmussen has McCain +1, Gallup has +3), but a modest McCain lead is expected. Those numbers will come back down, probably by the end of the week, and we'll be back where we were before -- nearly tied, possibly with a slight Obama lead, heading into the debates.
Both candidates have their own weaknesses there, so there's a lot at stake for each of them. Should be interesting.
McCain just needs to keep his cool and keep asking why in this very dangerous world do you want to have a rookie at QB when you could have an experienced vet instead.
At this point in time, polls don't mean much. We still have a long way to go, but this is promising.
Polls this early are usually non issues. However, the problem for Obama and this poll is the sampling. Unlike other polls that use "registered voters" This is among "Likely Voters". And that 10 points is huge.
As I said in another thread, I think McCain wins going away and I predicted 8 points and that was before this poll came out.
As I stated several months back, this race is McCain's to lose.
Everybody thought I was crazy.
I thought you were crazy but not for that reason.
I agreed with that several months back, but now I think it's Obama's to lose...
This is the strangest presidential race I can ever remember...
Actually Trick, it's no so strange. When you run a guy who is that far left of center and then add to that his questionable associations, then put into the equation a very outspoken wife who up until very recently was ashamed of her country her whole life, you have the making for this. As the American people see through the media bias and the hatchet jobs they are doing on a good person like Palin, they will come to understand the true ideals behind these people and the polls will begin to show that.
Like I said, McCain will win this going away.
Not too much to choose from there, so thats not saying too much.
I suppose this can be chalked up to a convention bounce and a very lousy week for Obama in general, still it seems inevitable that it will tighten up within a couple of weeks time yet again heading into the debates.
I'm sure it will tighten up in most polls. The thing to watch is what kinds of polls. If it's the normal polling that uses a general population it's really meaningless. There are no controls in those kinds of polls. If you get one with registered voters, it may be a bit more telling but there are many people who stay on the registration rolls for years without casting a vote.
Again, the ones to watch are the ones with likely voters. Of course, the internal polling of the campaigns is really where the score is truly known, because they are much more specific. We however won't know the results of those polls until after the election.
I'm not much into polls because they tend to change quickly especially national polls. I will say the numbers are encouraging for McCain and when you get down to state polls in some of the battle ground states like Ohio McCain is currently leading by a decent margin bodes even better for him. With over 50 days left until the election there is no doubt we will continue to see these polls move up and down. No matter how you cut it this is going to be another close election.