Discussion in 'Draft Zone' started by Cowboys&LakersFan, Jan 5, 2012.
Put a percentage on it what is the chances DeCastro falls to #14?
75% I pick that number as a guess of something between 50 and a 100.
The reason being is it is pretty rare for OGs to go at higher picks so I am just going by history.
I would say it would be higher if we had RGIII, Landry Jones, Matt Barkley (sp?) and Andrew luck all coming out as it would push good players further down.
But I still think there is a pretty good chance we could get him.
I have not really looked at the teams above us and their needs other than hearing that Arizona needs interior Oline but they also have many other needs.
Have seen that KC also may have an interest in him at 12.
Guards generally don't go very early, and there is another blue chip guard in this class (Cordy Glenn from Georgia, who's just huge)...
I'm completely confident that one if not both of them will still be on the board at pick 14...
yeah me too I see 90% + chance they are both there at 14 and it wouldn't surprise me if one is there at the top of the 2nd rnd.
combine will tell the tale on DeCastro. If he measures as good as his game film he will be a mid first rd at least
Pretty much this - if he has a really strong combine he could go right outside of the Top 10, between 11-13.
VERY VERY likely IMO he makes it to 14. Guards don't get drafted in the first half of the 1st round. Or very rarely at least. Heck, not often many guards go in the the 1st at all. Def more towards the back end of the round they start to come off the board.
I don't think the combine has much to do with linemen rising or falling. The bowls games, especially the Senior Bowl, affect linemen way more than the combine does.
The combine is for skill position guys, unless a lineman shows up with a terrible bench or really short arms (or completely flunks the interviews/medicals), their stock doesn't tend to rise or drop much on those tests alone.
Im gonna tell a great tale about a puppy with a tail......sorry but you gotta love the english language.
Any way yes he's there at #14........but if he's not then trade back and get Ingram
Are you asking what are the chances a Guard is available at 14?
Has there ever been a top 10 draft pick of an interior offensive lineman? I can't remember one.
I think DeCastro is worth taking and will be a ten year pro bowler. But the NFL draft just doesn't work that way.
It is reasonable to conclude that Luck, Griffin, Kalil, Richardson, Claiborne, Blackmon, and Kirkpatrick are going before Castro. I'm sure Reiff will go before him, too because teams value tackle so much more. So that's 8 people before we even talk about any defensive front 7 players which always get pushed up as we approached the draft. I think you'll see Coples go early, and some interior D-lineman may jump up the board like Poe or something at the combine.
In short, DeCastro may be the safest pick in the draft, but I cannot see him cracking the Top 10. And I think something like 14 is the highest he can reasonably expect to go. But 14 is great for an interior o-lineman (the highest I can remember... I think the good Pouncey went 18).
Historically 14 would be pretty high for a G. if you see a team go that high for a guy, it is often b/c they see him as filling a huge need. It is sort of a luxury pick. The last interior lineman (and by interior I mean someone who was listed as a C or G coming out of college, not a T who later switched like Leonard Davis) picked higher than 14 was Chris Naole in 1997. Mike Pouncey went 15 last year but I believe he's really a center and his brother's dominant play certainly help his evaluation (although he looks really good too). The best guards really seem to start going 15 and later.
One issue here is that a stud G is a real good fit for a team with a bunch of talent that had a down year. What a G isn't a great fit for is a team that needs to show something exciting to put butts in the seats. All that plays in our favor.
Ingram may be a guy who gets up into the top half of the draft.
I think it's about a 80% chance that he's there at 14.
My probability was this low only because I can see about a 50-50 shot that AZ takes him.
Highest Non-Tackle taken in the last 10 years:
2011 - 15th Selection - Mike Pouncey, C
2010 - 17th Selection - Mike Iupati, G
2009 - 21st Selection - Alex Mack, C
2008 - 39th Selection - Chilo Rachal, G
2007 - 29th Selection - Ben Grubbs, G
2006 - 23rd Selection - Davin Joseph, G
2005 - 26th Selection - Chris Spencer, C
2004 - 34th Selection - Chris Snee, G
2003 - 21st Selection - Jeff Faine, C
2002 - 30th Selection - Kendall Simmons, G
2001 - 2nd Selection - Leonard Davis
Average: 25.7th Selection, let's round up and say 28th.
* Keep in mind this does not include players who were drafted at tackle and ended up changing positions (ie: Robert Gallery) or players who were drafted at Guard/Center but ended up playing tackle (ie: Leonard Davis) I wasn't THAT bored.
Also worth noting is that the majority of these guys end up being pretty darn good. Several of them have gone to probowls, and many of them have long, productive careers as opposed to tackles, who regularly fail to live up to their billing.
That being said, Pouncey is the closest non-tackle to be taken at 14ish overall (We all know Leonard Davis' story). Is DeCastro as good a prospect? I'd say so, but he probably isn't going to have the same responsibilities a center has that gives them that extra little bit of value.
Regardless, I have absolutely zero qualms with taking DeCastro at 14th overall and I think there's a very good chance he'll be there.
If you think Pouncey and Iupati at 15th and 17th are right there with this guy, then 14th is clearly not a stretch at all.
But if he is there at 14, some would argue he could be there 4-5 slots lower, so we could have the dreaded trade down. Of course, if you still get him and pick up another 3rd rounder, that would be sweet. But I don't like when we get too cute.
Leonard Davis was a Tackle coming out. He was moved to Guard later so technically, he is not included in the discussion IMO.
The highest Guard taken in the last 20 years was Chris Naeole with the 10th pick overall out of Colorado, taken by New Orleans in 1997. I'd have to say that he was a bust. No Pro-Bowls or All Pro Selections. After 5 years, he was not even with the team. Finished out his career in Jacksonville.
Next Highest would be Ruben Brown at 14 overall in the 95 draft out of Pittsburgh, taken by the Bills. Brown was pretty good. He played 13 seasons and made 9 Pro-Bowls. Between 96 and 03 he made 8 straight.
This is a strong draft for Guards.