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Why I Am Looking Forward To Next Season

Discussion in 'Fan Zone' started by Yakuza Rich, Dec 31, 2012.

  1. dirt

    dirt Member

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    Always love reading your posts YR...trying to filter the white noise today from frustrated fans, closet GM s and wanna be pro personnel directors and grab onto your posts like a piece of drift wood in a stormy sea...man that was poetic even
    What intersts me is the weeding out process you spoke about. Who do you think is left from the Wade era? Felix, Austin, Sensabaugh??
    What encourages me is the observation of improvement in young players over the course of the past two years....Sean Lee, carter...in the space of several games, Harris, parnell,albright, Hannah in recent games,Brent before his accident.....even Hatcher who was a tease had an excellent season
    Too often as fans we clamor for the backup or the draft choice not knowing the pace of development that the individual player is on like the coaching staff does
    This alone gives me some hope for Garrett
  2. Yakuza Rich

    Yakuza Rich Well-Known Member

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    Only 12 teams had losing records in 2011. 16 teams have losing records in 2012. It completely shakes up the entire schematics of the NFL for 2013 and presents something completely different than what we had this year.

    Going into this year, I predicted 3 of the 12 teams with losing records in 2011 would make the playoffs. I took Carolina, Seattle and Buffalo as my picks. Obviously, Carolina and Seattle were disappointments. Looking back, I should not have ignored the historical trends that 2nd year QB’s usually have rough seasons. Even Andy Dalton had a difficult year. That knocked out Cam and the Panthers, but they did go 7-9 on the year.

    Anyway, with me picking Carolina and Seattle…that’s 2 of the 6 NFC teams right there. I thought the Packers were a mortal lock to return and they did.

    That’s 3 teams.

    Super Bowl winners almost always return to the playoffs the next year. Bad news for Dallas (or so I thought) as the G-Men were the SB winners.

    That’s 4 NFC East teams.

    I had the Saints missing the playoffs, particularly with BountyGate. But, I simply liked the Falcons position…a wildcard team.

    That’s 5 NFC East teams

    Out of the other teams to fill that last playoff spot, I thought realistically it would be either:

    Dallas
    Philadelphia (8-8, missed the playoffs)
    Chicago (8-8, missed the playoffs)

    I liked Chicago’s chances. They were on their way to the playoffs in 2011 before Cutler got injured on a freak injury. Their numbers were excellent and Cutler was coming back. They still went 10-6 on the season.

    I still liked what Dallas had to offer, so I couldn’t pick them to have a losing record. But with the G-Men, Philly and what I thought would be an improved Washington team, I saw them going 8-8.

    Next year there are some obstacles. I think there will be 5 teams with losing records in 2012 that will make the playoffs in 2013.

    Right now, I like:

    St. Louis
    Detroit
    New Orleans
    San Diego
    (can’t think of a 5th team right now)

    So, that puts 3 teams in the NFC already.

    But, the more teams with losing records, the WORSE it is for divisional winners. And considering RG3 will be a 2nd year QB (and seems susceptible to injuries), I think Washington is going to have a tough go at it in 2013. I don’t think Foles or the Eagles are ready. That leaves it down to use and the G-Men. And there’s also no reason why both the Cowboys and G-Men can’t make the playoffs in 2013.






    YR
  3. Yakuza Rich

    Yakuza Rich Well-Known Member

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    There are a couple of reasons why I won't reveal who it is.

    1) This person is a customer of the company I work for, so I do worry about some basic privacy issues.

    2) I sort of look at it like any celebrity telling me this in confidence that they do it under anonymity. One thing I despise is seeing people taking pictures of celebrities who are at a party, minding their own business. To me, it's just as bad.

    I don't really care whether people believe it or not. The point of mentioning it was to give my perspective of what I was thinking going into the game and why I'm fairly optimistic for next year.

    Some people want to hear it. Some people don't.

    Anyway, I was told that Wade's practice style was often more about watching film and they didn't care so much about technique and particularly focus and intensity in practice. In particularly after wins because figuring they won, what they were doing was working. That's why we would see a lot of sloppy wins, players who struggled with success and general consistency issues.

    One of the things I asked was about how Witten's penalties dropped once Garrett became Head Coach and this person told me that the TE position requires repetitions given your assignments and having to think more on your feet and how Wade's practices were sloppy and ill prepared and since Witten is a great player, Wade could 'live' with the penalties.

    We discussed things like the New England game from last year and that my general observation was correct according to him...Garrett had to break a cycle of the team losing the end of the game on a Romo turnover. Even if it wasn't Romo's fault, any turnover would have been viewed as Romo's fault and it would have decimated the team's spirit to lose on another interception.

    That's part of why he believes Garrett is a bit conservative in his playcalling. He wants the players to nail the basics and fundamentals first. Get them down every single day, every practice, every time. Then, we'll move onto more intricate stuff.

    Like I said, I think a person can be a good coach but fail to overcome that one blind spot. Bill Cowher had to figure out to not rely so heavily on the run game. Coughlin had to figure out how to pick and choose his battles with simple team rules. Schottenheimer never figured out how to win in the postseason.

    I just think all of the things that I have felt that have killed this organization. Those struggles with having a coach that will 'stay on' players. Players that can handle success. That play with intensity and focus each week. That don't think they can just show up and win because they are the Cowboys. Those players that are hungry and want to get better. All of those things are what I was told that Garrett has made his priority and does a great job with it and that's why so many people are high on him.

    And while people don't like to hear it, it is a process and he needs the time to weed out the players that just don't quite get it or have too many bad habits to break and get his players in there.

    I am disappointed how much that sentiment offends some people.




    YR
  4. phildominator

    phildominator Member

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    Thanks for the detailed reply, YR.

    It seems like that you start your basis from statistics, but it's finalized from your subjective opinions.

    Not statistics, but by your opinion, you eliminated the Nick Foles and the Eagles for 2013. Also, You subjectively eliminated the redskins as a threat this year.

    Other than an NFC East team winning the Super Bowl in 2010, Statistically, there's nothing that suggests the cowboys have a better shot next year than this year.

    What if the Redskins (god forbid) won the Super Bowl this year? You said that Super Bowl winners almost always return to the playoffs the next year. Does that improve, worsen or neither in 2013's chances?

    For myself, I read Football Outsiders and other trends as well, but at the end...if we don't improve our OL, increase turnovers and decrease penalties, we have the same shot at making/missing the playoffs next year regardless if we won/lost last night.
  5. dirt

    dirt Member

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    I hear what you are saying....we focus on the cowboys and cast an envious eye toward the Patriots and other successful organizations not having lived thru their growth and development. Read anything on Belichick and u will see the process he went thru learning and developing a philosophy and a scouting system to identify his type of player, learning from mistakes made in cleveland to reach the level the Patriots now operate on
    Not equating Garrett to Belichick but the fact that he has a certain type of player and a process...there is that word again...to reach that goal makes me optimistic
    What irritated me most about Wade was the sloppiness. Football is a sport that requires discipline, accountability, self motivation like no other
  6. big dog cowboy

    big dog cowboy THE BIG DOG Staff Member

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    I'm excited for next year if for no other reason we get a ton of hurt players back. That's not making any excuses just stating the facts.
  7. Rynie

    Rynie Benched

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    Nope, it doesn't. Also, I have become a total romo-hater after last night. Dude has choked too many times. Have tried to defend him, but I No longer have it in me. I knew this would happen. That's Why I'm pessimistic.
  8. Wood

    Wood Well-Known Member

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    I think this analysis would have more weight last year. Now its just a trend for dallas to just miss playoffs.
  9. arglebargle

    arglebargle Well-Known Member

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    Thanks YR! The statistics part, I will take your word on. Nice to hear that report from the inside though. Especially with the informed pessimists being even more pessimistic than usual and the knee jerk crowd doing the can-can.
  10. Cowboyz88

    Cowboyz88 Well-Known Member

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    YR,

    As someone else asked (but you didn't quite address), there aren't too many key holdovers from the Wade era, so it safe to assume that Felix, Jenkins, Scandrick, Rat, Spears, Sensi, Ware, Romo, Spencer, Witten, Free are the guys who Garrett will eventually be moving out or, at least, looking for their eventual replacements?

    To me, I think it's a given that Felix, Jenkins, Rat, Spears and Free are 90-100% gone.

    I think Scandrick, Sensi and Spencer are on the fence or very soon to be gone (within the next two seasons) with Spencer being the one wild card.

    Finally, I think the team (read: Garrett) likes/needs/appreciates Ware and Romo but realize that they may be getting long in the tooth and that they would sooner rather than later find their replacement. I also think they may HAVE to keep them given their vital positions, but would rather go in another direction if circumstances allow.

    Finally I think Witten is the one guy they'd prefer to let retire a Cowboy.
  11. DandyDon1722

    DandyDon1722 It's been a good 'un, ain't it?

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    Rich...

    I have to say I am riveted by this entire thread. As you can imagine, it's a pretty brutal day considering the way we lost was the worst possible nightmare but the things you have written about Garrett and his approach to players explains some of the culture change we have seen and made the team more mentally tough.

    I am fascinated by the insights you received as to the players and their practice and play habits. Based on your writings though the big elephant in the room with Garrett now is this...

    As someone who constantly defends Romo (to you many times) now I am concerned as to how Garrett approaches the mental state of the team as it relates to Romo and Tony himself. Protecting against a pick late in the game against New England in order for the team to mentally negate that type of a loss is one thing. Throwing three picks for the NFC East is another. I think there are different kinds of losses and last night couldn't have played out any worse.

    I wonder how JG approaches this. How does that get rectified by the players and what is the mindset now after what happened? Anyhow I just wanted to say once you wade through the emotional drive-by comments it has been a great and interesting thread.

    Well done.
  12. CoCo

    CoCo Well-Known Member

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    I'll start by echoing DandyDon1722 and say, good thread if you can sift through the noise.

    I'll also say I've been watching for your "predictions follow-up". Can't say that I disagree with your "parity premise", but I find myself far more interested in what we do in roster & coaching changes than when our turn in the cycle comes up (my off-handed term, not yours).

    Lastly, I suspect you're encouraged because you've now heard 1st hand from an insider what has been reported for sometime regarding Garrett. I would be too. Its tough to sit and trust when the outside view is pretty limited. So thanks for sharing.
  13. pancakeman

    pancakeman Well-Known Member

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    No, Ponder sucks. But the rest of your points hold! :)
  14. TwoDeep3

    TwoDeep3 Well-Known Member

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    This is where I am as well. Thanks RS for your continued sound judgment and postings.
  15. 5Stars

    5Stars Here comes the Sun...

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    :confused:

    What about my sound posts?


    :eek::
  16. yimyammer

    yimyammer Well-Known Member

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    I guess you'd have to be the dodger if I was to ask who this is or would I have to take a wild hair of a guess? ;)
  17. TwoDeep3

    TwoDeep3 Well-Known Member

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    The bolded part is the important part.

    Parity is a lovely word which has no meaning in this case. Sorry, but for far too long Dallas fans have made excuses why the team is still just middle of the road. Listing teams prior to their Super Bowl seasons is a feel good approach that bears no fruit since nothing is ever the same about teams in this league.

    Outside of the 2002 Tampa Bay Bucs, what do the others have in common?

    Top flight quarterbacks.

    Now that can be argued several ways. On the one hand you can argue about every one of those guys. Or argue that stats say Romo should be on that list. But how many of them have the reputation - deserved or not - that he chokes in the clutch?

    Not one on the list below.

    So go through the list from earliest to latest.

    Brady
    Brady
    Rapesmysister
    Manning P.
    Manning E.
    Rapesmysister
    Brees
    Rodgers
    Manning E.

    So all the 8-8 and hoopla you list ignores that these are the top quarterbacks in the league year-in and year-out.

    And your excuse making for Romo is the same as it always is from fans here. He throws a pick and the fans begin the reconstruction of why it was picked and in every scenario it comes up to be someone else that was at fault.

    The Jets game opening day last year had Romo fumble at a crucial time and throw the same pick he threw in Pittsburgh a few years before - roll right and ignore the cornerback.

    This board went ballistic trying to rewrite history by saying it was the blocked punt that lost the game.

    It was not then, and Ogletree is not why Romo threw the pick last might.

    We can discuss the failure of Dallas because of the defense. In some regard that has legs since the defense does cave at times. But this is a game of team, and it takes two pretty solid units to win.

    So it comes back to talent acquisition, coaching, and the players. No earth shattering information there.

    GM is a constant and its lack of building the right team is evident to anyone.

    Coaching is another area that is a concern. Regardless of your inside source and the wonderful things said about Garrett, he still did not make a simple adjustment to the blitz all night.

    If they are coming from the back side, then put people in motion and move the two tight end set to the left side of the line.

    Haslet made an adjustment and tried to overwhelm Romo from his blind side. Garrett did NOTHING to counter that move.

    So all the hosanna and halleluiah about Garrett ignore he is a step late in his thinking.

    But with all the talk about how talented this team is, let's ask the question, is it really?

    Austin seems to get hurt at the wrong times. Regardless of the injury and how it occurred there is a portion of the season that Austin is on the sidelines. This is SUPPOSED to be the deep threat. The team doesn't have the speed he has anywhere else that can be counted on.

    Dez is a possession receiver that has the ability to break them for TDs, but the passes usually are intermediate and he out muscles the defender. But last night he had no help on the other side and this team did not have the one guy who could challenge Hall and force a double team.

    The Offense Line was built on spare parts because the GM did not do his diligence over the last four years and quietly draft solid linemen. He lives under the philosophy that finding wounded players who should have been drafted higher is the ticket. Taking players that were not more than mediocre from other teams cast-offs because a change of locale can sometimes make them better is continually not working.

    No block - no win. It is simple as that.

    Murray has one more year and then he will be considered an injury waiting to happen. His ability to move the chains makes the team better. But if he has Austinitis and cannot stay on the field, he could be Walter Payton and it wouldn't matter.

    Felix is now a wasted pick. He brings nothing to the table.

    The Tight Ends are special. Hannah will be special if we have a coach that can exploit their abilities.

    Tony Romo is a guy that is asked to do too much because people see gaudy stats and seem to forget when the lights are the brightest, he tries too hard and makes poor decisions. Make him a bus driver and he will bring home the trophy.

    Ask him to be John Elway in the Cleveland game, forcing him to make the winning drive, and you get a pick on a screen that should never have been thrown.

    So this is your problem.

    GM - big problem - incompetent, arrogant, doesn't learn from his mistakes
    coaching - fairly big problem - slow on the up tick, and doesn't learn from his mistakes
    players - fairly big problem, not as much talent as people think

    And in all that, it comes back to the GM that meddles because he has to be involved as the final arbiter of every decision. And that wrecks the chain of command.

    So all the what ifs about the other teams has nothing to do with this dysfunctional team. From top to bottom the Dallas Cowboys are an average team, have been for fourteen years for the most part, and will continue to be so as long as the organization is run as it is.
  18. TwoDeep3

    TwoDeep3 Well-Known Member

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    You have a skill level when using Smilies that goes far beyond anything I have ever witnessed. I look forward to your Smilie posts because they are an art form unto themselves.

    I was remiss not bringing you into the conversation.

    I am ashamed.
  19. Yakuza Rich

    Yakuza Rich Well-Known Member

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    2012 has been a wacky year and in statistics we would just chalk it up as an anomaly (but, we would still delve into the reasons for the anomaly).

    That being said, the odds for the Skins are not good.

    The last rookie QB to go to the Super Bowl was David Woodley...back in 1982.

    From an anecdotal viewpoint, I think the Seahawks match up very well with them, although Wilson is another rookie and being on the road for him is a bit scary. I also think the Niners match up well with them and they already lost to the Falcons at FedEx.

    If the Redskins win the Super Bowl, they would be a completely anomaly in themselves since we have not had a rookie QB win the Super Bowl in so long. So all bets would be off. However, if I had to guess, their odds are not good because you're looking at a 9-7 team that got hurt in the salary cap by the penalty that is now drafting last with a rookie QB that appears to going to have to fight injuries his entire career because of his style of play.

    I also believe that when a team wins a Super Bowl, ALL of the teams in the league become focused on finding ways to stop that team or figure out why they are successful.







    YR
  20. Yakuza Rich

    Yakuza Rich Well-Known Member

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    No, parity does have a meaning in this case. It helps explain the Cowboys' past successes and failures. You remind me of the people who thought I was 'nuts' for projecting the Eagles to not make the playoffs last year because Andy Reid was supposedly the greatest thing since Lombardi and the Eagles were such a great organization of providing a covenant for dog killers. But as I mentioned with my reasoning as to why this year's Cowboys didn't project to make the playoffs...the numbers didn't work in their favor. Why? The NFL is a system of parity. The Eagles won the divison in 2010, it simply becomes much harder to just make the playoffs the following year.

    Again, since 1999 only 47% of the divisional winners have returned to the playoffs the following year. In fact, in the last 5 years, only 18 of the 40 division winners returned to the playoffs the following year...that's 45%.

    Think about what that is saying...

    You are MORE LIKELY TO MISS the playoffs the following year if you win the division.

    And look at the Dallas teams over the years:

    2003 (made playoffs, 5-11 the prior year)

    2004 (6-10, made playoffs in 2003)

    2005 (9-7 missed playoffs despite 6-10 in 2004)

    2006 (9-7 made playoffs)

    2007 (13-3, wildcard team previous year)

    As we can see a trend developing that is *right in line* with the rest of the league. Get a couple of .500+ years but avoid winning the division, 2007 is the big year).

    Then...

    2008 (9-7, miss playoffs)

    We won the division and immediately went back down.

    But...

    2009 (11-5, win division)

    Gee, right in line with the rest of the league. And then...

    2010 (6-10)

    Then we get up to 8-8 in 2011 and now 8-8 in 2012.

    We are not immune to the parity of the NFL. The only teams that have been immune are the Patriots and whatever team Peyton Manning plays on. And to a lesser extent, the Steelers.

    We can't rest on the fact that the projections suit us better. Obviously, the team has personnel issues that have to be greatly improved. And if there is something discouraging, I don't have a lot of confidence in the organization winning the division and making the playoffs the following year. I would love to see the organization overcome that, but I have extreme doubts that they can do it.

    But, whether you or I or anybody else likes it, there is a system of parity created in the NFL and it rears its ugly head or it helps a moribund franchise.





    YR

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