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"Win-or-go-home" from a team point of view

Discussion in 'Fan Zone' started by percyhoward, Jul 14, 2013.

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  1. 5Stars

    5Stars Here comes the Sun...

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    This all good stuff...but, you still have not convinced some that Romo just plain sucks! Your problem is that you look at the whole picture and don't just focus on one player. And, the only reason, aside from Romo's 105.9 passer rating, that all the other stats are so low is because of Romo!

    Until you agree with this, you are just wasting your time.
  2. KJJ

    KJJ You Have an Axe to Grind

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    The Cowboys have struggled in red zone that shows just how misleading Romo's red zone passer rating stat is.
  3. KJJ

    KJJ You Have an Axe to Grind

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    According to your research Romo's red zone passer rating in 2011 was 105.9 but the team ranked 7th in FG attempts and 20th in red zone scoring. That's proof positive how misleading the red zone passer rating stat is.
  4. percyhoward

    percyhoward Research Tool

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    KJJ, which individual stats have the highest correlation with winning?
  5. KJJ

    KJJ You Have an Axe to Grind

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    Seeing you're the research tool who puts so much stock into every individual stat how about you telling me? The one individual stat by a QB that costs teams more games is turnovers.
  6. 5Stars

    5Stars Here comes the Sun...

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    I cannot answer for him, but, is there any stats that you can find where a receiver can catch a ball with his helmet to win a SB? :confused:
  7. 5Stars

    5Stars Here comes the Sun...

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    Well, to be fair, Percy is giving out stats for the whole TEAM! And you only focus on Romo.

    Romo is part of a TEAM. You really need to watch golf or tennis.
  8. KJJ

    KJJ You Have an Axe to Grind

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    Wish they would add a "yawn" emoticon.
  9. 5Stars

    5Stars Here comes the Sun...

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    Watch the clock, watch the clock, watch the clock...you are getting sleepy....you are getting sleepy.

    lmao
  10. percyhoward

    percyhoward Research Tool

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    No, don't put stock into every individual stat, because there are a lot of bad ones that have nothing to do with winning games. Use the ones that correlate most highly to wins -- passing efficiency stats like passer rating, or some form of yards per attempt. That red zone passer rating comparison of Eli and Romo in 2011 is very telling stat, because it means the Giants needed to be able to compensate for the fact that they weren't efficient passing in the red zone. The red zone rushing TD shows one of the ways they compensated -- by running the ball very effectively in that part of the field.

    The Cowboys didn't have that in 2011 (and still don't, for that matter). In order to keep up with the Giants, Dallas had to maximize each red zone possession by being perfect in the passing game (Romo threw 0 red zone interceptions). Being perfect in the passing game is made even more difficult when the defense doesn't respect your running game and knows you have to pass. When you look at "Romo's" 0-1 record in the win-or-go-home game that year, just remember that if he isn't perfect in the red zone all season long, his win-or-go-home record improves to 0-0.

    Romo's perfect red zone performance in 2011 is one of the reasons Dallas is the only team in NFL history to rank as low as 20th in rushing TD and defensive passer rating two consecutive years and not have a losing record either year. Dez Bryant is another reason. Jason Witten is another.

    In 2011, the Giants' RB ran the ball 61 times in the red zone, scoring 16 TD. The Cowboys' RB ran the ball 59 times in the red zone, and scored 3 TD.

    Give the Giants 3 TD and the Cowboys 16, and then compare the QB. How many games do the Giants win in 2011 with 13 fewer rushing TD? Those extra TD have to come from somewhere. Eli has a 75.9 rating in the red zone. Where do those TD come from?
    Dodger and 5Stars like this.
  11. 5Stars

    5Stars Here comes the Sun...

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    Another variable into the equation are injuries. But, that is a team thing.

    If only Romo would not injure anyone, or get injured, Superbowls by the 100's.!
  12. DejectedFan1996

    DejectedFan1996 Well-Known Member

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    I don't think KJJ is trying to prove that Romo "sucks." He's just pointing out that he needs to elevate his level of play in do or die situations. Those games in which he was on fire for four games in a row to lead us to 8-7, that's how he should have played in the Redskins game. That's not to say the team also doesn't need to improve but generally if you're getting outstanding QB play in the playoffs, it leads to success. Romo's playoff opportunities are limited but that doesn't mean he, and the rest of the team, can't play better.

    Whenever you mention something negative about Romo on here, people automatically have this "You're saying Romo sucks" mentality and that's never been the case. The same way he was put on a pedestal for playing outstanding 4 games in a row, the same way he should be criticized for playing horrible in Washington. I don't know why people are so sensitive to Romo negativity on here. The psychological attachment to Romo and how he's defending is similar to a defensive parent defending their child when he/she is criticized.
  13. percyhoward

    percyhoward Research Tool

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    Compare your expectations for Romo to the ones you've had for the team.
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  14. DejectedFan1996

    DejectedFan1996 Well-Known Member

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    Ok...and what I've stated remains the same. You don't agree, that's fine. But people shouldn't get their panties in a bunch when someone points out that other people besides the defense need to elevate their level of play.
  15. percyhoward

    percyhoward Research Tool

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    I don't care about the condition of people's panties, but when you can't see the difference between a player and a team, I'll be happy to remind you.
  16. KJJ

    KJJ You Have an Axe to Grind

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    Romo's passer rating is right up there with the top QB's every season and he has a losing record the past 3 seasons. In 2011 he had a career high passer rating of 102.5 and it only resulted in 8 wins. So much for passer rating correlating into wins. What correlates into wins is throwing TD's and not turning the ball over at ill-timed moments. Romo's career passing rating is 5th all-time and he's 1-6 in win or go home games. The 4 QB's whose career passer ratings are higher than Romo's have all won championships because they haven't had the turnover issues he's had in the make or break games. Romo's career passer rating is higher than Joe Montana's that's another clear indication of how misleading a stat it is.

    If you like tabulating passer ratings so much tabulate Romo's passer rating in his 7 win or go home games and compare it to the win or go home passer ratings of the "recent" SB winning QB's. It's the win or go home games where a passer rating can tell you something. The main reason for low passer ratings in elimination games is usually due to turnovers. It's playoff pressure that does in most QB's. None of Romo's stats have been as good in win or go home games as they've been during the regular season.
  17. percyhoward

    percyhoward Research Tool

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    No, so much for one team's passer rating correlating to wins. There are two teams that have passer ratings in every game. The passer rating of the opposing QB against your pass defense is just as important as the passer rating of your QB.
  18. KJJ

    KJJ You Have an Axe to Grind

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    Win or go home games come down to which QB makes the fewest mistakes. In week 17 last season RG3 had a poor passer rating but he didn't turn the ball over like Romo. Turnovers take your offense off the field and give the opposing QB extra opportunities to attack your defense. Passer ratings don't figure in the plays duel threat QB's are making with their legs. Romo's had multiple turnovers in 4 of his 6 win or go home losses.

    In 2 of those 4 losses he turned the ball over 3 times. I can figure out which team wins an elimination game just by looking at the QB's turnover column. See how many QB's you can come up with in the past few seasons who've played mistake free football but ended up losing a win or go home game to a QB that had multiple turnovers.
  19. DejectedFan1996

    DejectedFan1996 Well-Known Member

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    And it was the player that got all the accolades for bringing us to a win or go home situation for playing lights out, and its that same player that failed to play up to par as the previous four games that deserves some of the criticism,especially for that ill-advised pick.
  20. nickjamesw43

    nickjamesw43 Active Member

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    Basically I want to piggyback on what Fuzzy is saying here. WPA exists in sabermetrics in baseball as well. In fact it has a higher winning percentage correlation then WAR (A context neutral stat like passer rating). The reason why WAR is used as an evaluation tool much more so then WPA is that WPA is not nearly as good a predictor as WAR of future performance. In other words correlation with winning isn't everything. Kneel downs correlate very highly with winning but nobody would seriously propose using that to evaluate players.

    The problem with WPA is it ends up being influenced by a lot of arbitrary factors that are not under the control of the quarterback. Of course regular passer rating is not perfect in this regard (some receivers will catch higher percentages of passes break more tackles ect.). However with WPA you have basically now thrown in the other teams QB, the other teams running game and our teams defense and attributed their performance to the quarterback position. This is because WPA changes based upon the game situation which is influenced by all those things. In other words you have increased the statistical noise rather then trying to focus in on what the quarterback is doing.
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