Discussion in 'Political Zone' started by Cajuncowboy, Oct 19, 2008.
Obama's lead shrinks to 2.7 points and shrinking.
People are fooling themselves if they think Barack Obama has this race sewn up.
This race is going to be very close and it could be like Gore/Bush in 2000.
I wouldn't be suprised if we don't know who the POTUS-elect is after November 4th.
I agree with you there.
I'll bet Ohio is going to be a real mess.
I agree wholeheartedly... and no matter who wins, the other side will claim "fraud" and "disenfranchised"...
here are some new polls http://www.411mania.com/politics/co...-NC,-MN,-WI,-PA,-MT,-OH,-ME,-WV,-National.htm
The FBI needs to camp out in Ohio and throw some folks in jail. What happened up there was fraud, plain and simple.
Yep, things are going to get real ugly on this board. Im thinking about pulling a Silverbear and banishing myself during the month of November, but I doubt I will have the fortitude to carry through cuz its too dang fun .
I don't think there will be mass riots and things like that. I do think there will be protests and maybe isolated pockets of violence.
However, if this thing goes the way of the Gore/Bush Election, I could see the National Guard being brought into some areas.
Right now is a perfect storm of Race, Slipping Economy and politics.
Has charts of who's leading and such.
Obama's lead has shrunk quickly in the last week. Right now its on the fastest downturn since right before McCain led after the RNC.
This race won't be decided until sometime on the morning of Nov. 5. I don't even believe the polls on Nov. 3 will be accurate.
Notice that when it's "Likely Voters" His lead starts to shrink. It will more and more as we go. I honestly don't think the majority of American's will want this guy and his socialist views as a President.
The problem with this is that it is just a barometer for the popular vote, doesnt really mean much.
If you want to know who is going to be President, look at the battleground state polls which are very favorable to Obama right now.
Obama may not win the popular vote (especially if the lead is down to 3%), but in terms of the Electorial College, this race is not even close. McCain is not contesting any blue states right now and Kerry lost by 1 state.
Thus, Obama really only has to win 1 red state to win the election. It could be Ohio, Missouri, Florida, New Mexico, Colorado, Virginia, ect.
JUST TURN ONE RED STATE BLUE AND OBAMA WINS.
If you look at the national average on that page you will see how the state polls take about a week to catch up to the national average.
The election will, likely, come down to three states: Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida. Whoever wins two of those states will probably win the election. Obama would still have a chance if he lost two of those, but it would be an uphill battle.
but but but
Zogby is based in Utica, NY. With all the evil liberals and communists, shouldnt his polls be taken with a grain of salt or is it okay when it helps out your personal opinion.
I've never seen that argument here...
Zogby is greatly respected around these parts...
he is a good guy so is his family.
I made many fruit baskets for him at the holidays!
I would say McCain HAS to win 2 out of 3 in order to have a chance. If he loses 2 of the 3 its over.
I love how the Gallup Poll was the poll of choice on this board when McCain was either leading or very close. Since that Poll shows Obama with a 10% lead, Zogby has taken it's place as the poll of choice. These polls don't mean anything. The electoral college is where it has always been at. If Obama wins a couple of these swing states it's not going to matter.
In case you wanted to know what other polls were saying.
New Zogby poll:
This is why I prefer Rasmussen. It doesn't go up and down like a rollercoaster every single day.
Well that seemed like a little bit of wishful thinking by Cajun...
If you actually watch the Zogby poll, it literally bounces back and forth every single night. There's no rhyme or reason to it.
It's one thing to have something happen that causes the dynamics of the race to change, but it's another to be up and down like a rollercoaster and claim each night that something has changed.