JD_KaPow
jimnabby
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A few things.Yeah, I would like to see the 2pt conversion rate inside 1 minute and compare it to the rate at any other time.
If that rate is lower then I might go with McCarthy's plan. If it's higher I stick with the XP plan to get it to 8 points.
All single plays are in a bubble. Just because they failed with 5 minutes does not mean they would have failed at the end of the game.
I understand all other things being equal you may have 1/1000 chance better of winning if you go for the 2 early.
You have to be a little careful about the two-point conversion rates inside a minute (where they're all obvious) or other times, because until a few years ago, you could do a 2-point conversion as a fake extra point. You can't do that any more (different line of scrimmage). Surprise plays (like surprise onside kicks) have a higher success rate than plays where everyone knows what's coming.
Second, we don't know all the other factors that go into the decision. You know who knows a lot more about that than us? McCarthy. And he chose to go the way he did.
Third, if you had two choices and one gave you a 1/1000 chance better of winning, why would you not take that choice?
Finally, since 2016, the overall success rate is 49%. The success rate inside the last 2 minutes is 42%. But I think that's misleading. Inside two minutes, teams almost always are doing it because they have to. Many of the others are teams choosing to do it because they think they have some particular advantageous play in their arsenal. In this case, with the same offense against the same defense, I don't see why there would be a difference.