2021 mock drafts

[DanA]

Last year it was easy. One of Brown, Kinlaw, Lamb, or Henderson would fall to 17 and you could back that up with a DT, CB, or Safety in the second and WR, DT, or Center in the 3rd. Mocks always had guys DT falling to us and it dropped relatively perfectly on draft day.

This year, when I do a mock draft, its always awkward. It seems like nobody falls to us, I’m never able to fill positions of need while also picking the best player.

 

[waving monkey]

I see Slater falling to us and Surtain

 

[Bullflop]

Last year it was easy. One of Brown, Kinlaw, Lamb, or Henderson would fall to 17 and you could back that up with a DT, CB, or Safety in the second and WR, DT, or Center in the 3rd. Mocks always had guys DT falling to us and it dropped relatively perfectly on draft day.

This year, when I do a mock draft, its always awkward. It seems like nobody falls to us, I’m never able to fill positions of need while also picking the best player.

The best advice I'm able to offer as a solution to your frustration is to wait 'til draft day for our FO to provide an ideal answer.

 

[Typhus]

Last year it was easy. One of Brown, Kinlaw, Lamb, or Henderson would fall to 17 and you could back that up with a DT, CB, or Safety in the second and WR, DT, or Center in the 3rd. Mocks always had guys DT falling to us and it dropped relatively perfectly on draft day.

This year, when I do a mock draft, its always awkward. It seems like nobody falls to us, I’m never able to fill positions of need while also picking the best player.

Are you just talking about 1st round as far as nothing falling?
Ive been running a simulator based off of updated perception evaluations from scouting grades, so pretty decent logarithms as a base, and I have been seeing quite the opposite.
I dont have the option to trade during the draft, but there is a notification for when a trade back or up is advised.
Nearly every simulation that I run, I get notification to trade back at 10.
Ive seen a couple times out of hundreds of simulations that I a get notification to move up in round 1, so definitely a preponderance to best value moving back in round 1 especially recently with the trades
taking place with SF trading up to 3 and Miami trading ahead of us taking Pitts off the board, or catching a QB if one of 5 are still available, good trade for them,, 6 is definitely a blue chipper spot in this draft.
Not saying this is rocket science by no means,, its just another evaluation tool so that we can throw the data in on our daily speculations....

 

[morasp]

Trade back is a definite option. You could add an additional player with a starting grade (49 this year). Or if the right player falls just take him.

 

[CowboyoWales]

Last year it was easy. One of Brown, Kinlaw, Lamb, or Henderson would fall to 17 and you could back that up with a DT, CB, or Safety in the second and WR, DT, or Center in the 3rd. Mocks always had guys DT falling to us and it dropped relatively perfectly on draft day.

This year, when I do a mock draft, its always awkward. It seems like nobody falls to us, I’m never able to fill positions of need while also picking the best player.

No point in identifying ANY player in positions of need, we need to identify specific players that improves area of weakness. For example, our rush defense is universally acknowledged to be worst element of the team.....so there's no point looking at Barmore as he doesnt help with rush D (actually looks a bit of a liability against the run).

Similarly, in the secondary we need the player that compliments Diggs. Diggs is an ideal risk taking ballhawk, then draft a lockdown CB1 and make the QB gamble on WR2 V Diggs.

We want to get into a position of stopping the run on first couple of downs and leaving long yardage on 3rd down....hopefully against a secondary including Diggs and a 1st round CB. At the moment we are giving easy 1st downs aided by the 3rd worst rushing yards conceded per attempt

Surtain falls in round 1 and there are plenty of run blocking (or double team attracting) DT's, rounds 2-3.

 

[morasp]

No point in identifying ANY player in positions of need, we need to identify specific players that improves area of weakness. For example, our rush defense is universally acknowledged to be worst element of the team.....so there's no point looking at Barmore as he doesnt help with rush D (actually looks a bit of a liability against the run).

Similarly, in the secondary we need the player that compliments Diggs. Diggs is an ideal risk taking ballhawk, then draft a lockdown CB1 and make the QB gamble on WR2 V Diggs.

We want to get into a position of stopping the run on first couple of downs and leaving long yardage on 3rd down....hopefully against a secondary including Diggs and a 1st round CB. At the moment we are giving easy 1st downs aided by the 3rd worst rushing yards conceded per attempt

Surtain falls in round 1 and there are plenty of run blocking (or double team attracting) DT's, rounds 2-3.

Not contradicting you but I've seen that narrative about Barmore and just wanted to comment on it. Last season he was recovering from injury and they weren't sure he would even be available for the season opener and I think that's the reason he had a slow start. By the end of the season he seemed to be close to full strength especially the last 4 or 5 games. According to sports reference he had 9.5 tackles for loss which must be running plays since they weren't sacks and he also had 8 sacks. The draft guide I read said he could hold his ground against a double team if asked to. The only knock I saw was Bucky Brooks saying he takes plays off so they may have to weigh that but I wonder if that was based on games early in the season. The other nice stat he had was 3 forced fumbles.

Overview
Attack-oriented defensive tackle with a big body, violent hands and the talent to work his way around blocks and find the football. Barmore tends to be in the lead and take control of a majority of reps. His hands and feet sing in harmony and allow him to stay active and free from attempts to sustain blocks against him. His hands are heavy and powerful but also sudden and efficient, which creates early win opportunities for him in the run game and as a pass rusher. Barmore can be his own worst enemy when he freestyles his run fits and prematurely gives away positioning when posting up in read-and-react mode. He’s exceptional at finding a blocker’s edge and swiping past the outside hand to bring the ruckus inside the pocket. While he has similar size and skill set, it doesn’t feel like he’s as long at the point of attack as past Alabama defensive tackles now in the pros. Barmore’s explosive first step, violent hands and upper-body power are the ingredients of a three-down defender with the versatility to play a number of positions in an even or odd front as an impactful rookie starter.
Strengths

• Thick and powerful with above-average foot quickness.
• Very explosive first two steps.
• Darts into gaps and bends a tight track to the quarterback.
• Works to the rush edge without getting too far off track.
• Violent, efficient hands, plundering blocker’s outside hand.
• Sets up blocker and hits sudden inside switch as rusher.
• Activity level and play strength to hunt down hold-happy quarterbacks.
• Tough to reach when he’s playing it straight up.
• Can withstand double teams and cloud the interior.
• Classic Alabama read-and-react talent and technique.
• Explodes from hips to lift and displace blocker from his base.
• Punches into full extension and posts up the edge.
• Instinctive hands to rid blocker and look to finish.
• Rhythm to play off multiple blocks in the same rep.
• Strong base carries him through redirect blocks.

 

[Tangle_Foot]

It's a mock draft why not have fun with it. Outside of the first round who knows, and even the first round can be turned upside down by a surprise trade. The degree of difficulty only increases as the rounds pass making who falls, who fits, or who actually gets picked virtually impossible. Only 4 weeks left and then we can trade the anxiety of who gets picked for I hope that was the right pick.

Have a good Easter weekend everybody

 

[Typhus]

No point in identifying ANY player in positions of need, we need to identify specific players that improves area of weakness. For example, our rush defense is universally acknowledged to be worst element of the team.....so there's no point looking at Barmore as he doesnt help with rush D (actually looks a bit of a liability against the run).

Similarly, in the secondary we need the player that compliments Diggs. Diggs is an ideal risk taking ballhawk, then draft a lockdown CB1 and make the QB gamble on WR2 V Diggs.

We want to get into a position of stopping the run on first couple of downs and leaving long yardage on 3rd down....hopefully against a secondary including Diggs and a 1st round CB. At the moment we are giving easy 1st downs aided by the 3rd worst rushing yards conceded per attempt

Surtain falls in round 1 and there are plenty of run blocking (or double team attracting) DT's, rounds 2-3.

I wouldnt have an issue with Surtain at 10, but I would be much happier with horn at say 13-14 if I was feeling lucky about it, and could grab a nice pick for the exchange.
There arent always trade partners available, I just want to maximize the value of that 10, and the way this draft is setting up, with SF jumping to the 3, they did that for a
QB, you dont move to the three for a TE, WR... doubt Sewell ,, they went there for Trey Lance or Justin Fields, and Im betting its Lance.
That falls right into our lap,, SF just stressed the QB needy teams,, Ive been saying this draft is going to be the most active as far as trades for months now, and we already have two
before the draft... 10 is a decent slot in this draft,,, just maximize the value, could be there if Mac Jones is there.

 

[CowboyoWales]

Not contradicting you but I've seen that narrative about Barmore and just wanted to comment on it. Last season he was recovering from injury and they weren't sure he would even be available for the season opener and I think that's the reason he had a slow start. By the end of the season he seemed to be close to full strength especially the last 4 or 5 games. According to sports reference he had 9.5 tackles for loss which must be running plays since they weren't sacks and he also had 10 sacks. The draft guide I read said he could hold his ground against a double team if asked to. The only knock I saw was Bucky Brooks saying he takes plays off so they may have to weigh that but I wonder if that was based on games early in the season. The other nice stat he had was 3 forced fumbles.

I see the comments like "needs to be more consistent and disciplined against the run".

My concern is when we start picking BPA rather than complimenting players with systems. If we are happy with Gallimore as our 3-tech then signing Barmore becomes less valuable as his talents also fit as a 3-tech.

He probably is the best DT and ideal for a team needing the 3-tech pass rusher, but our needs are different. For me it's not BPA (Pitts is by far the best player, but I wouldnt draft him either), it's drafting players that compliment what we have and systems we want to play.

We know that Jerry likes flashy so Barmore is the type of player he'd be attracted to.

 

[CowboyoWales]

I wouldnt have an issue with Surtain at 10, but I would be much happier with horn at say 13-14 if I was feeling lucky about it, and could grab a nice pick for the exchange.
There arent always trade partners available, I just want to maximize the value of that 10, and the way this draft is setting up, with SF jumping to the 3, they did that for a
QB, you dont move to the three for a TE, WR... doubt Sewell ,, they went there for Trey Lance or Justin Fields, and Im betting its Lance.
That falls right into our lap,, SF just stressed the QB needy teams,, Ive been saying this draft is going to be the most active as far as trades for months now, and we already have two
before the draft... 10 is a decent slot in this draft,,, just maximize the value, could be there if Mac Jones is there.

Yep, spot on. If we see sense and look at improving the secondary (DT can be addressed later on) and we dont have an overriding preference we should maximize the pick and draft down.

 

[Typhus]

Yep, spot on. If we see sense and look at improving the secondary (DT can be addressed later on) and we dont have an overriding preference we should maximize the pick and draft down.

So, Im not even opposed to the concept of trading out of certain picks in this years draft if there is really good value in futures even.
Im just saying watch this scenario start taking place,,, there will be teams that will be seeking trades out of later rounds in this draft
for future picks that they can evaluate better.

 

[Typhus]

It's a mock draft why not have fun with it. Outside of the first round who knows, and even the first round can be turned upside down by a surprise trade. The degree of difficulty only increases as the rounds pass making who falls, who fits, or who actually gets picked virtually impossible. Only 4 weeks left and then we can trade the anxiety of who gets picked for I hope that was the right pick.

Have a good Easter weekend everybody

You as well @Tangle_Foot foot... have a blessed day

 

[morasp]

I see the comments like "needs to be more consistent and disciplined against the run".

My concern is when we start picking BPA rather than complimenting players with systems. If we are happy with Gallimore as our 3-tech then signing Barmore becomes less valuable as his talents also fit as a 3-tech.

He probably is the best DT and ideal for a team needing the 3-tech pass rusher, but our needs are different. For me it's not BPA (Pitts is by far the best player, but I wouldnt draft him either), it's drafting players that compliment what we have and systems we want to play.

We know that Jerry likes flashy so Barmore is the type of player he'd be attracted to.

Quinn's system is a little different than we've played in the past it's more a single gap system.

 

[Bullflop]

Are you just talking about 1st round as far as nothing falling?
Ive been running a simulator based off of updated perception evaluations from scouting grades, so pretty decent logarithms as a base, and I have been seeing quite the opposite.
I dont have the option to trade during the draft, but there is a notification for when a trade back or up is advised.
Nearly every simulation that I run, I get notification to trade back at 10.
Ive seen a couple times out of hundreds of simulations that I a get notification to move up in round 1, so definitely a preponderance to best value moving back in round 1 especially recently with the trades
taking place with SF trading up to 3 and Miami trading ahead of us taking Pitts off the board, or catching a QB if one of 5 are still available, good trade for them,, 6 is definitely a blue chipper spot in this draft.
Not saying this is rocket science by no means,, its just another evaluation tool so that we can throw the data in on our daily speculations....

Since our guys in the FO often fail to observe good use of veteran FA, it seems trading back would be a good way to overcome so many needs.

I'd say getting as many draft picks as possible offers a great chance to maneuver up and down during a draft to get the most bang for the buck.

Of course, there could also be instances whereby moving up would be prudent as well, so here again, having extra picks would serve that goal.

 

[Typhus]

Since our guys in the FO often fail to observe good use of veteran FA, it seems trading back would be a good way to overcome so many needs.

I'd say getting as many draft picks as possible offers a great chance to maneuver up and down during a draft to get the most bang for the buck.

Of course, there could also be instances whereby moving up would be prudent as well, so here again, having extra picks would serve that goal.

Yes sir, more picks just equates to more flexibility, the true question is do you want to spend now or later.

 

[Bullflop]

Yes sir, more picks just equates to more flexibility, the true question is do you want to spend now or later.

Accumulating enough picks to overcome so many needs for this team seems essential to me to acquire the level of competition that we crave.

There's no substitute for good judgment to know when and how to best maneuver one's options to the best advantage. A smart GM could help.

 

[DanA]

It's a mock draft why not have fun with it. Outside of the first round who knows, and even the first round can be turned upside down by a surprise trade. The degree of difficulty only increases as the rounds pass making who falls, who fits, or who actually gets picked virtually impossible. Only 4 weeks left and then we can trade the anxiety of who gets picked for I hope that was the right pick.

Have a good Easter weekend everybody

More difficult isn’t less fun (for me), but IMO draft day is not gonna be as exciting as seeing Lamb and then Diggs as our 1st two selections.

And it seems like all the value is 16-60. For instance I like Darrisaw, Horn, Stokes, Grant, Basham, JOK, and Tuipulotu in terms of value than anybody it looks like we could get at pick 10. I’d feel a lot better about getting a few of the guys than what we can get with our top 4 picks but that IMO takes an unrealistic amount of trading.

 

[Tangle_Foot]

More difficult isn’t less fun (for me), but IMO draft day is not gonna be as exciting as seeing Lamb and then Diggs as our 1st two selections.

And it seems like all the value is 16-60. For instance I like Darrisaw, Horn, Stokes, Grant, Basham, JOK, and Tuipulotu in terms of value than anybody it looks like we could get at pick 10. I’d feel a lot better about getting a few of the guys than what we can get with our top 4 picks but that IMO takes an unrealistic amount of trading.

How do you know, no one, and I think that may include you, knew that both Lamb and Diggs would be Cowboys without any wheeling and dealing. I bet you didn't even think Beasley was going to make that catch in your avatar. You never know, but you seem to be enjoying the process, and that's all that matters.

What the I've been moved from the fan zone. I thought the draft doors opened in April

 

[Typhus]

More difficult isn’t less fun (for me), but IMO draft day is not gonna be as exciting as seeing Lamb and then Diggs as our 1st two selections.

And it seems like all the value is 16-60. For instance I like Darrisaw, Horn, Stokes, Grant, Basham, JOK, and Tuipulotu in terms of value than anybody it looks like we could get at pick 10. I’d feel a lot better about getting a few of the guys than what we can get with our top 4 picks but that IMO takes an unrealistic amount of trading.

Like all your guys, but some team getting a major player with JOK, that man might have a higher ceiling than Watt.