I think you are arguing a point with yourself as what I said was completely either misunderstood or went over your head.
I am not opposed to drafting a QB, but there are risks...as you said, going back to 2000 12 QBs have won superbowl...in 20 years, only 12 different ones and 7 were first rounders. great. in that same period 63 QBs were drafted in the first round. everyone drafts QBs in the first round, reaches for them, thinks them to be what they may not be. of course!!! why? because having a QB is the easiest way to make it to the superbowl....it actually is the cheapest way despite the contract numbers that we see lately.
and QBs come in all rounds....all kinds of players come in all rounds....chances of 1st rounders succeeding is higher....probabilities are higher and over the years, you look at first rounders, vs. other rounds and more first rounders succeed. in all positions. they are usually more talented physically, come from bigger programs, smarter, and have had great college performances, etc....that's stating the obvious not discovering a hidden fact. but the lower in the round, the less the probability....do you find good ones in lower part of draft? yes, Brady was 6th...who is an exception rather than the rule.
my point, rookie QBs take time to develop (I am sure you are going to point to Mac Jones the exception working with Bilicheck rather than the rule ala Wilson, Lawrence, Fields). rarely a team as talented as NE, with the GOAT as headcoach, has his players take a year off, so they end up with a top 15 pick to choose a QB at the right time when GOAT QB leaves for another team....
so again, not opposed to go draft route, but to have a better chance of finding the right QB, then you have to draft higher in the round usually top 10, for that you have to stink it up or get unlucky like cowboys and deal with ton of injuries, etc. to end up in the top 10-15 range.....plus a rookie QB will take time develop (despite Mac Jones' record or what Marino did). then we are wasting our money paying collins, smith, zeke, cooper, martin...we should just trade/cut and tank and go for it and rebuild.....
and given you seem to understand odds, since you said QBs in rounds 3rd and lower don't have much chance of succes, then odds are 7/63 that we may find a QB that can take us competitive.....or 56/63 that we won't.